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Forex Research - Pound Unharmed by Worst UK Manufacturing Since 1981

Pound Unharmed by Worst UK Manufacturing Since 1981

Last Updated 1/9/2009 5:37:26 AM EST (GMT +5)

Top Stories

  • UK Manufcaturing plummets -2.9%
  • BOK lowers rates by 50bp to 2.5%
  • Russia and Europe arrive at agreement on gas pipeline conflict
  • Bombay goes through volatile session after Satyam fraud
  • Oil hovers at $42 as Mideast tension continue
  • Gold at $850/oz
  • European equities slightly lower ahead of NFPs

Overnight Eco

  • JPY Leading Indicators 81.5% vs. 81.4% forecast
  • EUR German Retail Sales better at 0.7% vs. 0.4% forecast
  • EUR French Industrial Production -2.4% against -0.7% called
  • EUR French Trade Balance meets forecast at -6.2B
  • GBP Manufacturing Production drops -2.9% vs. -0.5% expected
  • GBP PPI in line at -2.0%
  • GBP Industrial Production -2.3% vs. -0.5%
  • EUR Retail Sales 0.6%
  • EUR German Industrial Production n/a

Event Risk on Tap

  • CAD Employment Change expected at -21.0K
  • CAD Unemployment Rate expected at 6.5%
  • CAD Housing Starts expected at 175K
  • CAD Building Permits expected at -3.7%
  • USD Non-Farm Employment Change expected at -475K
  • USD Unemployment Rate expected at 7.0%

Price Action

  • USD/JPY breaks 9100 as risk aversion continues ahead of NFP
  • AUD/USD sells of to 7020 as equities drop
  • GBP/USD back to 1.5100 on woeful manufacturing but recovers all losses
  • EUR/USD rangebound around 1.3700 as marktes await NFP
UK manufacturing plummeted by -2.9%  against forecast of only -0.5% dragging pound lower in early London trade, but the unit managed to recover most of its post news release losses as focus shifted to the US Non Farm payroll report due later today at 13:30 GMT. Part of the reason for currency market’s rather nonchalant reaction to the worst UK manufacturing reading since 1981 may have to do with the fact that the manufacturing sector comprises a relatively modest percentage of the UK economy which is much more service oriented than the large economies of the Eurozone.  

Nevertheless, the woeful state of UK industrial sector only serves to highlight the severity of the country’s recession and suggests that further rate cuts from BoE will likely be forthcoming. Pound tumbled to within a few points of the 1.5100 level in the aftermath of the release but managed to recover virtually all of it losses, although the unit remained weaker against the euro with EURGBP climbing back above the 9000 level. Today’s German retail sales data surprised to the upside printing at 0.7% versus 0.4% forecast and provided with euro with a bit of  a lift as the  unit climbed above 1.3700 ahead of the US jobs data.

The NFPs of course will be the marquee event of the day with traders steeling themselves for a possible -700K print. The last two month losses of more than 1 Million jobs would be the worst performance on the US  labor front since 1946 but that fact must taken within context as the country’s population was nearly two-thirds smaller at that time , making today’s data not nearly as dramatically dour on a percentage basis.

While the market is almost universally bearish the NFP number after ADP’s -693K projection on Wednesday, the possibility of a less negative result certainly exists.  As our colleague Kathy Lien noted , “The employment component of Service sector ISM, which is one of the most reliable leading indicators for non-farm payrolls improved in December along with the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, “ suggesting that the NFP print may not be as bad as currently  feared.

Given the negative sentiment that prevails a reading of -500K may prove  to be dollar positive with EURUSD sliding back towards the 1.3600 level, but overall  the US economic picture remains woeful and the market will need to see at least some cessation of further job losses before traders can be confident that US economy has stabilized.

FX Upcoming

Currency GMT EST Release Expected Prior
CAD 12:00 7:00 CAD Employment Change -21.0K -70.6K
CAD 12:00 7:00 CAD Unemployment Rate 6.5% 6.3%
CAD 13:15 8:15 CAD Housing Starts 175K 172K
CAD 13:30 8:30 CAD Building Permits -3.7% -15.7%
USD 13:30 8:30 USD Non-Farm Employment Change -475K -533K
USD 13:30 8:30 USD Unemployment Rate 7.0% 6.7%

About The Author

Schlossberg has more than 20 years experience financial trading on Wall Street. His daily currency research appears in numerous newspapers worldwide and Schlossberg serves as a regular contributor to CNBC's Squawk Box and Bloomberg radio and television. Read more >>

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. This forum and its information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision based upon this forum or any information contained within. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Boris Schlossberg will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Boris Schlossberg do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax or other professional advice. If such advice is sought, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
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