data indicate record decrease in GDP
Icy economic climate
thin trading in the last two weeks of 2008, EUR-USD was relatively
unspectacular at around 1.40. However, in the first full trading week of the
new year, the market started gathering steam again: the pound was this weekâ€™s
winner; it rose significantly against the dollar and the euro. GBP-USD gained
over 5% to 1.53, EUR-GBP fell more than 6% to about 0.90. The sharp movement
appears to have been due to sizeable short positions in pounds, which had been
built up during December, being closed prior to the BoEâ€™s interest rate
decision. Some economic indicators, such as retail sales, had not been quite as
bad as expected, which is also likely to have played a part. Furthermore, it
was uncertain how big the central bankâ€™s rate cut would be. And in fact the
bank rate was â€śonlyâ€ť cut by 50 basis points to 1.50%.
was some movement in EUR-USD too. By Tuesday afternoon, the euro had dropped by
around 6 cents to just over 1.33. The momentum in the dollarâ€™s favour was
triggered by equity markets, where risk appetite appeared to have increased
somewhat at the start of the new year. First and foremost, the new US
economic stimulus package gave rise to some premature optimism. Barack Obama,
who will be inaugurated as US
president on 20 January, and the new Congress, which now has a Democratic
majority, are working full steam ahead on a massive stimulus package. It is
reported that this package, which is to be passed by mid-February, will be in
the region of $775bn, i.e. about 5% of GDP, and run for two years. Compared to
that, the German governmentâ€™s new â‚¬50bn stimulus plan looks relatively modest.
the second half of the week, however, the mood became more subdued again.
back, and the dollar weakened. Towards the end of the week, EUR-USD was around
1.37. Markets were brought back down to earth by the economic data coming in:
the ADP indicator showed a record loss in December of almost 700,000 jobs in
private sector. In the eurozone, the economic data published were disastrous: in
November, German exports slumped by over 10% month-on-month, and industrial new
orders in the manufacturing sector plunged by
as in October. German industrial production fell by 3.1% in November. If
production remains unchanged in December â€“ and this is by no means certain â€“
there would be a quarter-on-quarter decline of 5.0% in Q4. in France,
things look even worse: there, the quarter-on-quarter decline in Q4 would be
the worst fears for the fourth quarter seem to be coming true. The current
there could be a quarter-on-quarter drop of up to 2% in German GDP in Q4.
Things do not look much better for the eurozone as a whole either. What is
particularly scary, however, is that the trend throughout the whole of Europe
is still pointing downwards. The EU Commissionâ€™s survey results, for instance,
deteriorated sharply again in December. The economic sentiment indicator
plummeted from 74.9 to 67.1. That is the lowest level by far since 1985 when
these figures started being recorded.
December, the ECB governing council had emphasized that the interest rate
was â€śopenâ€ť. After the meeting, some council members had even signalled that
they would prefer to leave interest rates unchanged in January. However, the
latest data are so bad, that we now think a 50 bp interest rate cut is the most
likely option next Thursday. Even Bundesbank president Axel Weber, one of the
hawks, admitted in a recent speech that some of the downside risks listed in
the December projections of the Bundesbank and the Eurosystem, had already become
evident, and that the last quarter of 2008 was likely to turn out worse than
previously expected. The economy was not likely to pick up again until 2010.
is still not clear, however, what course of action the ECB will take on
Thursday. If interest
are cut, the ECB will probably try to diminish further interest rate cut expectations,
as it did in December. If, on the other hand, the central bank leaves interest
rates unchanged, it will at least have to acknowledge additional growth risks
and thus indicate its willingness to cut rates.
will therefore be no clear signals for the markets. But, regardless of how the
ECB acts on
economic developments will in the end force monetary policy to reduce interest
rates further. The interest rate cycle in the eurozone still has a long way to
go before reaching its trough.
Rieke +49 69 718-4114
Grabbe / Klaus NĂ¤fken
report has been prepared by BHF-BANK Aktiengesellschaft on behalf of itself and
its affiliated companies (together "BHF-BANK Group") solely for the
information of its clients. The information and opinions in this document are
based on sources believed to be reliable and acting in good faith, but no
representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by any member of the
BHF-BANK Group as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions and
recommendations are given in good faith but without legal responsibility and
are subject to change without notice. The information does not constitute
advice or personal recommendation, for which the duty of suitability would be
owed, but may facilitate your own investment decision. Moreover, you should
seek your own advice as to the suitability of an investment matter mentioned
herein. Investors are reminded that the price of securities and the income from
them can go down as well as up and that the past performance of an investment
or a market is not necessarily indicative for future results. This document is
for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or
their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete, and this
document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation
of any offer to buy the securities mentioned in it. BHF-BANK Group and its
officers and employees may have a long or short position or engage in
transactions in any of the securities mentioned in this document, or in any
related securities. This publication must not be distributed in the United
rights reserved. Please mention source when quoting from it.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.