mixed on jobs data. The much anticipated US payrolls
report on Friday came in as expected, which meant markets werenâ€™t sure whether
to buy or sell. For example, equities markets initially felt the numbers were
better than the street whispers, and rallied accordingly, but then had a change
of heart, realising the numbers were dismal once the backward revisions were
included. In the end, the S&P500 fell by 2.3%, with Europe down 1%. US
10-year treasuries flip-flopped even more, initially being sold 10bp, but then
rallying back for a net 5bp gain. The US dollar (DXY index +1.4%), gold (-0.4%)
and copper (+5%) liked
he numbers, whereas oil (-3%) only saw the
gloom. Perhaps the VIX summed it up best â€“ a small increase in risk aversion on
the day. In New Zealand today, no
data is expected, except possibly the December report from the REINZ on house
prices, due sometime this week. Otherwise, Q4 NZIER business confidence on
Tuesday will be the highlight of an otherwise very light data week.
surprisingly locked in a very tight, 0.59 to 0.5950, range, indicating the
sentiment around this commodity currency is still marginally positive. AUD/NZD
broke down near the NY close towards 1.18, a level which is attractive to
speculators looking to establish long positions again.
between 0.70 and 0.71 around the payrolls report, and hovers around the middle
of that range at the NZ open.
The EUR bore the
brunt of USD buying, falling from 1.3750 to 1.34 after the payrolls data. GBP fell from
1.5350 to 1.5150, despite a sticky PPI. Conversely,
sold from 91.50 to 90, indicating a net flight to quality.
December non-farm payrolls showed 525,000 jobs were lost, close to
economistâ€™s expectations of 524,000. However, November and October numbers were
revised downwards by a total of around 150,000, which casts a gloomy pall over
the report. The unemployment rate, at 7.2%, was worse than the 7.0% expected,
and hourly earnings and weekly hours worked were lower than the previous month.
The other US release on
Friday, wholesale sales, was much worse than expected at -7.1% (versus -2.6%),
while wholesale inventories fell by 0.6%, less than previously.
leading index weakened as expected, confirming that economic conditions
deteriorated further in November. The index softened to 81.5, as forecast by
the market, down from 85.2 in October and well down from the 90+ level back in
retail sales for November was higher than expected at +0.6% mom,
driven mainly by lower fuel prices. German industrial production, for November,
at -3.1% (mom), points to a negative GDP reading in Q4.
December PPI up 4.7%, and indicating some prices are still sticky
there despite weakening demand. A better indicator of a rapidly cooling economy
was the industrial production figure for November, -2.3% (mom) versus the -0.5%
followed the US trend towards higher unemployment, showing 6.6%,
and a bigger loss in jobs than expected â€“ 34,400.
0.6034 high fell short of the 0.6075+ target we expected, which means weakness
is most likely today. Our NZD range for today, of 0.5850 to 0.5960, is more
likely to be threatened on the downside.
Strategy, 0800 922 239
contributions from Westpac Economics
Country Release Last Forecast
12 Jan NZ
Dec REINZ House Prices %yr â€“4.1% â€“
Aus Dec ANZ
Job Ads â€“8.6% â€“
of Age Day
13 Jan NZ Q4
NZIER Business Confidence â€“19% â€“
US Nov Trade
Balance, $bn â€“57.2 â€“47.0
Budget Statement $bn 48.3 â€“47.0
Bernanke speaks in London
Current Account Â¥bn 960.5 800
â€¢ NZ Q4
Employment Confidence Index (7 January)
â€¢ NZ Q3 GDP
Review (23 December)
â€¢ NZ Q4
Consumer Confidence (22 December)
â€¢ NZ Q3
Current Account Review (22 December)
for NZ house prices in 2009 (18 December)
â€¢ NZ Q3 GDP
Preview (18 December)
Review (18 December)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
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