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Tuesday January 13, 2009 - 11:35:47 GMT
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Forex Research - Euro Liquidation Persists As Credit Fears Escalate

Euro Liquidation Persists As Credit Fears Escalate

Last Updated 1/13/2009 5:24:28 AM EST (GMT +5)

Top Stories

  • Nikkei down nearly 5% after holiday
  • Germans pass 50B euro stimulus package
  • Japan FinMin Nakagawa - watching FX market with caution
  • Russia starts pumping gas to Europe
  • Gold crumbles as dollar strengthens last $818/oz
  • Oil continues to decline $36/bbl last

Overnight Eco

  • NZD NZIER Business Confidence - 64 massive fall off from -19 last
  • JPY Bank Lending 3.7%
  • JPY Current Account .65T vs. .62T forecast
  • JPY M2 Money Stock 1.8% vs. 1.7% called
  • GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor -3.3% against -2.8% last
  • GBP RICS House Price Balance -73.5 slight improvement form -75.8 last
  • JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment record low at 15.9
  • EUR German WPI -3.0 vs. -1.7% forecast
  • GBP Trade Balance -8.3B vs. -7.6B called
  • GBP DCLG HPI -8.6% vs. -8.5%

Event Risk on Tap

  • CAD Trade Balance expected at 3.3B
  • USD Trade Balance expected at -53.5B
  • USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
  • USD Federal Budget Balance expected at -40.5B

Price Action

  • USD/JPY breaks 8900 to the downside despite Nakagawa warnings as equities drop
  • AUD/USD dribbles to 6700 as risk aversion kicks in
  • GBP/USD craters to 1.4600 after worse than forecast Trade data
  • EUR/USD probes the 1.3200 level as credit worries EUR/JPY sales weigh
The EUR/USD continued its descent today in early European trade coming within 20 points of the 1.3200 figure as worries over the credit downgrade of Spain and a series of EUR/JPY sales weighed on the pair  for a second day in a row.  The Nikkei closed down nearly 5% after Japanese investors returned from their Monday holiday and this latest wave of risk aversion kept the pressure on the euro while propping the dollar and the yen.    

On the economic front the latest German inflation data showed a much larger decline of -3.0% vs.- 1.7% expected, annihilating any argument for ECB’s continued hawkishness. European price levels now signal the possibility of deflation  rather than inflation inviting much more aggressive action from the ECB.

Nowhere is this dynamic more clear than in the oil market with crude sliding to $36/bbl despite continued tensions in the Middle East. Given the complete  absence of any price pressures in the Euro zone economy, some traders have started to anticipate a 75bp rate cut from the ECB this Thursday. We very much doubt that Mr. Trichet and company would suddenly become so dovish in their monetary policy and anticipate a 50bp rate cut at most.   

Nevertheless,  the change in market view via a vis the pace of rate cuts in the Eurozone along with nascent worries over the credit worthiness of some of the union’s member states  has produced a negative bias towards the euro at the start of  this week.  The pair is approaching some intermediate level support near the 1.3200 handle, but the bounces so far have been anemic at best.

In North American session today, the key event risk lies in US trade data which may surprise to the downside but should nevertheless show a marked improvement from the month prior given the collapse in oil prices.  Having dropped more than 600 points in the past 3 sessions, the EURUSD could stabilize for the time being as it has now reached the lower levels of its broad 1.30-1.40 range. However, unless the currency market sees a new catalyst for dollar weakness the path of least resistance for the pair remains down.

FX Upcoming

CurrencyGMTESTReleaseExpectedPrior
CAD13:308:30CAD Trade Balance3.3B3.8B
USD13:308:30USD Trade Balance-53.5B-57.2B
USD15:0010:00USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
45.0
USD19:002:00USD Federal Budget Balance-40.5B-164.4B

About The Author

Schlossberg has more than 20 years experience financial trading on Wall Street. His daily currency research appears in numerous newspapers worldwide and Schlossberg serves as a regular contributor to CNBC's Squawk Box and Bloomberg radio and television. Read more >>

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. This forum and its information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision based upon this forum or any information contained within. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Boris Schlossberg will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Boris Schlossberg do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax or other professional advice. If such advice is sought, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.




 

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

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