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Wednesday January 14, 2009 - 10:56:08 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Irish PM hints of seeking possible IMF aid; Euro-Zone data disappoints ahead of ECB meeting on Thursday; Deutsche Bank warns citing "exceptional market conditions"

Today 05:50am

European Market Update: Irish PM hints of seeking possible IMF aid; Euro-Zone data disappoints ahead of ECB meeting on Thursday; Deutsche Bank warns citing "exceptional market conditions"


- (JP) Japan Dec Preliminary Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: -71.9% v -62.1% prior

- (FR) French Dec CPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.1%e ; CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.3%% v 1.3%e, Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.3%e

- (FR) French Nov Current Account: -€4.4B v -€4.7B prior

- (GE) German 2008 GDP: 1.3% v 1.4%e; Budget Balance % of GDP (Maastricht): -0.1% v -0.1%e

- (CZ) Czech Nov Industrial Output Y/Y: -17.4% v -8.8%e

- 3:30 (SW) Swedish Dec Average house Prices (SEK): M v 1.791M prior

- (GE) German Nov Real machinery Orders Y/Y: -30%; VDMA says it might lower 2009 forecast

- (IT) Italian Nov Industrial production M/M: -2.3% v -1.4%e; Y/Y: -9.7% v -6.7%e; NSA : -12.3% v -9.0%e

- (EU) Euro-Zone Nov Industrial Production M/M: -1.6% v -2.1%e; Y/Y: -7.7% v -6.1%e (largest Y/Y drop on record)

- (TH) Bank of Thailand cut its benchmark interest rate by 75bps to 2.00%, more than the 50bps expected


- Equities: HSBC [HSBA.UK] Issues 39M shares to its shareholders instead of paying a cash dividend || Deutsche Bank [DBK.GE] Guided a Q4 loss of €4.80B well below the consensus estimates of a loss of €330M. It saw its Q4 tier 1 ratio around 10%. -It now sees tier 1 ratio at end of Q4 about 10% and Saw 'significant' provisions against monolines. The bank reduced its global assets by €300B throiugh cuts in both cutting trading, non-derivative assets. The Devervative market reflected exceptional market conditions experienced. || Hypo Reat Estate [HRX.GE] Reportedly mulling break up of group by separating govt lender unit Depfa.||Suedzucker [SZU.GE] Reportd Q3 Net Profit €25.5M compared to estimates of €24.1M. with revenues at €1.57B versus €1.68B expected. - Reaffirms FY09 Op Profit guidance €230-360M v €279.8Me; Rev €5.80B to €6.0B v €5.86Be despite deteriorating economic environment|| Deutsche Postbank [DPB.GE] Reportedly agreed on new conditions with on deal with Deutsche Bank [DBK.GE]. Deutsche Post stake to be held for less than on year, roughly 10% stake. Deutsche Post to receive cash assets for Postbank earlier than previously planned || Galapagos [GLPG.BE] Achieved milestone payments for Rheumatoid arthritis alliance and will receive €3.75M in payemts as a result. || Fortis [FORB.BE] French press reports that BNP is ready to offer marginal concessions in order to satisfy Fortis' small shareholders || Barclays [BARC.UK] Confirmed reports it would cut 2,100 jobs at investment bank, fund management and private banking units worldwide || Balfour Beatty [BBY.UK] Trading remains in line with prior guidance || Man Group [EMG.UK] Provided Q3 management statement: AUM as of Dec 30 at $53.3B v $67.6B at end of Sept and Q3 Net outflows of $2.1B || Punch Taverns [PUB.FR] Provides interim management statement: trading since Nov 4 has remained challenging with outlook deteriorating for UK consumer || AMEC [AMEC.UK] Guided FY08 Pretax "above" £200M compared to £198M estimates and saw FY08 Group EBITDA margin around 7% || Intervserve [IRV.UK] Provides trading statement: Trading remains in line with prior expectations, wins £140M in new contracts || BG Group [BG.UK] FT reports that company plans to make a $5B investment in Brazil over four years || Arcandor [ARO.GE] Provided Q1 trading statement in which it saw Adj Retail revenues 'slightly' above previous year. Its Christmas quarter was stable in retail segments. Business at Thomas Cook Group developing in line with expectations and confident of achieving targets. It saw Thomas Cook margin growth in 2009 and 2010 and an operating profit of £480M in 2010 || SAS [SAS.SW] French press reports that Air France/KLM was considering a possible SAS privatization || Douglas [DOU.GE] Reported FY Net €95.1M in line with €94.2M consensus. Revenues came in at €3.14B versus €3.14B expectations. Q1 SSS -0.4% y/y. Its dividend to remain unchanged|| Airbus [EAD.FR] Commenced construction on A350 assembly line noting that the unit had just under 480 orders for the aircraft to day

- Speakers: Irish PM was quoted by local media that he might bring in the IMF if the economic situation worsens. The comment was later 'denied' by the Irish Government, who commented that the PM's word were misconstrued. || German VDMA stated that the decline in the Nov real machinery orders data suggest an "Unprecedented" 4Q decline in this series || OECD commented in its 2009 outlook that the ECB has room to cut rates further in coming months. OECD forecasted 2009 EU GDP to fall by 0.6% y/y. It stated that growth should remain below trend until mid-2010, stressing that the current global economic environment poses "serious risks to the Euro-Zone growth outlook. Lastly it did note that the ECB should raised interest rates if inflation expectations rose again. || Chancellor Merkel commented that Germany was facing its most difficult economic situation in decades. She added that protectionism would be the wrong response to the current economic crisis || UK's Business Secretary Mandelson commented on a SME scheme noting that the plan would release bank capital for new loans as consumers are lacking confidence to spend. He added that Darling was keeping bank recapitalization terms under review.

- In Currencies: The Euro was in a “rally” mode during the early European morning by saw the bulk of its retracement gains erode following comments from the Irish PM who noted that he might call upon the IMF if the economic situation in Ireland deteriorated further. EUR/USD fell from its 1.3320 area to probe the 1.3200 in the aftermath of the comments. Dealers noting that a "quasi-official" name was seen below 1.3200 bidding for Euros and help stem further losses for the time being. Additionally, poor Italian industrial production data and German engineering further weighed on Euro currency sentiment. || Russian Central Bank confirmed it widened the Rouble trading band for the third time in 4 days. This marks the 15th mini devaluation since Nov 11th || Dealers noting that the Export Import Bank of Korea seeking to borrow $7B, and noted that the bulk would be denominated in CHF.

- The GBP exhibited some initial strength in the early European morning aided by repatriation chatter following the RBS sale of its £1.6B stake in Bank of China

- The Carry-related pairs succumb to the risk aversion theme following Deutsche Bank profit warning. Equitiy markets were near sessions lows with European bouses down over 1.5% in the session. EUR/JPY was moving back towards the 118.00 level after approaching 120 on “fierce” Japanese appetite for the pair prior to the European morning. EUR/CHF at 1.4750, off 1 big figure from its session highs and now little changed from its opening levels seen in Asia.

- Fixed income: European Fixed Income has traded lower amidst a deluge of supply. Germany tapped €5.6B of the 2.25% 2010 Schatz with a strong bid-to cover of 1.6, higher than the previous 1.21; whilst Italy sold €7B in 4y,20y and 30y BTP's. March Bund futures traded as low as 124.69, down 43 ticks on yesterdays close, before trimming losses as equities weakened, to trade at 124.88 at the time of writing. European Peripherals continue to see weakness, with misinterpreted comments from Irish PM Cowen pushing the yield spread on the Irish 10y to a fresh all time high of 175bps over Bunds

- In Energy: Saudi Oil Min Naimi reiterated that OPEC seeks to bring stability in oil market. OPEC is trying to lessen volatility in oil prices || Frontline [FRO.NO] Company noted in a press interview that 80M bbl of oil are currently being stored in tankers for offshore storage, which is the highest storage levels in 20 years || IEA's Tanaka stated that IEA would likely cut global oil demand forecast on Friday's monthly report. IEA official noted that current world oil reserves to last next 40 years. OPEC should know global economy needs lower oil prices || Statoil [STL.NO] Guided FY09 production at 1.95M bpd versus 1.90M bpd year-ago. It , maintained its dividend policy. Statoil guided FY09 CAPEX $13.5B v $16B y/y and targeted 2012 production of 2.2M bpd ||

- Credit Crisis: According to the Telegraph, UK Treasury is understood to have asked Credit Suisse [CSGN.SZ] to propose a plan for creating a bad bank. The UK government was mulling two models for a bad bank, one would be to buy toxic assets from lenders and transfer them into a bad bank. The other plan would leave problem investments on banks' balance sheets, but give them a government guarantee. ||PboC official Zhang Jianhua blamed the US for the current financial crisis

*** NOTES ***

- The economic news out of Europe continues to be below expectations and today's German GDP data and Italian Industrial production maintained that sentiment ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting. The comments from the Irish PM about seeking possible IMF help 'spooked' the markets.

- Concern over the health of the global financial sector continued to fester. European equity bourses in the lower quarter portion of their respective trading ranges ahead of the NY morning with the Euro Stoxx off Deutsche bank warned that exceptional market conditions severely impacted results in the sales and trading businesses and guided its Q4 lower as a result.

HSBC announced plans to pay its dividend in stock rather than cash highlighted the needs to preserve its liquidity base.

- US data will feature retail sales

Looking Ahead:

- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jan 9th: No expectations v -8.2% prior

- 8:30 (US) Dec Import Price Index M/M: -5.3% expected v -6.7% prior; Y/Y: -9.5% expected v -4.4% prior

- 8:30 (US) Dec Advance Retail Sales: -1.2% expected v -1.8% prior; Retail Sales Less Autos: -1.4% expected v -1.8% prior

- 8:30 (US) Fed's Plosser speaks in Delaware

- 10:00 (US) Nov Business Inventories: -0.5% expected v -0.6% prior



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