- Fear over capital deficits at major banks and anxiety over the dismal
December advanced retail sales data forced US equity indices down around 1.5%
before the open. Indices lost another two percentage points in the first hour
of trade as investors continue to shun risk. Speculation that Citigroup is
selling assets and breaking up the business in order to shore up a decimated
capital base has really spooked the markets. Those worries were only exacerbated
by a steady stream of more bad news from several major European financial
institutions. The Commerce Department reported that retail sales fell twice as
much as expected in December, deepening pessimism over the condition of US
consumers. Before the open the Philadelphia Fed's Plosser said he believes US
growth will be well below 2% in 2009 and that the economy will not begin
recovery until the second half of the year. Front-month crude is down more than
a buck around $36 after weekly DOE inventory data showed large builds in both
distillate and gasoline stockpiles. Treasury prices have benefited from a
flight to safety. The 10-year yield has fallen below 2.2% while the long bond
yield is testing 2.9%.
- Bad news at European banks and more reflection over the motivations behind
the Citigroup/Morgan Stanley brokerage deal are hitting financial names in
early trading, with the XLF off 5% in mid morning trade. Deutsche Bank shocked
investors by warning that it would announce a very substantial Q4 net loss of
â‚¬4.80B (estimates were for a â‚¬330Me loss). In addition, a Morgan Stanley
analyst said that UK
bank HSBC needs to raise an additional $30B in capital due to anticipated drops
in profit in 2009. The WSJ's Heard on the Street reported that Royal Bank of Scotland's
sale of its Bank of China stake may only be the beginning of big divestitures,
with its stakes in Citizens Bank and ABN Amro potentially on the list. The
article noted that Citi may be forced into international asset sales as well;
press reports over the last 12 hours have noted that Citi says it has no
intention of selling its Japanese private banking operations or its stake in Mexico's
Banamex. Investors have not been reassured and are dumping shares of Citi, with
the name down more than 14% in early trading.
- In other equity news, health care name Hill-Rom reported preliminary Q1
revenue figures that were a bit below analysts' estimates, also noting that it
would cut 6.6% of its workforce as part of a restructuring plan. Investors had
initially dumped HRC on the news, sending shares down 8% or so, but HRC was
back in positive territory mid morning. Under Armour also annouced preliminary
results, warning that its Q4 earnings would less than half the expected amount
and revenue would also be below expectations. UA also cut its 2008 forecast,
due to falling sales volumes; shares of US are down 15%. Luxury retailer
Tiffany & Company reported holiday same-store sales of -3% y/y and cut its
2008 guidance, sending shares of TIF down 5%. Solar stocks continue to loose
ground on falling energy prices and the recession, with global solar ETF TAN
down more than 5%.
- Currency markets are reacting to a range of economic and corporate stores.
The euro failed to recover in the New York morning following misrepresented
comments attributed to the Irish PM. Bearish sentiment for the euro gained
momentum following S&P's sovereign downgrade of Greece's debt, sending EUR
lower against its major pairs and below the 1.3200 level against the USD, where
"quasi-official" names had been reportedly bidding for euros earlier.
Bearish EUR sentiment has continued to build ahead of tomorrow's ECB rate
decision. Dealers believe the 1.3070 level has become a key pivot point over
the last quarter. The carry-related pairs have succumbed to risk aversion, with
fears of a global recession continuing to dominate the price action. US retail
sales fell for the sixth consecutive month, extended the longest string of
declines since the series was created back in 1992. In yen trade, the EUR/JPY
cross is moving back toward its key support ahead of the 116.30 level while
USD/JPY is headed toward its December pivot point of 88.20. Commodity related
currencies pairs were broadly lower as both energy and metal prices slumped,
while Russia's MICEX exchange was temporarily suspended after hitting limit
down and the Russian Central Bank continued its gradual devaluation process for
the third time in four days.
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Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Max McKegg’s Daily Forex Trading Forecasts
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The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
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The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
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