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Friday January 16, 2009 - 11:24:30 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Risk appetite return for the time being; IEA revises its 2009 global crude demand forecast lower

Today 06:04am

European Market Update: Risk appetite return for the time being; IEA revises its 2009 global crude demand forecast lower


- (FR) Bank of France Business Sentiment: 66 v 65e 

- (SP) Spanish Nov House transactions Y/Y: % v -27.7% prior

- (SZ) Swiss Dec Producer & Import Prices M/M: -0.7% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.6%e

- (SW) Swedish Dec AMV Unemployment Rate: 4.0% v 4.0%e 

- (EC) Euro-zone Nov Trade Balance: -€7.0B v €1.0Be; Trade Balance sa: -€4.9B v -€4.8Be

- (BR) Brazil Nov Retail Sales M/M: -0.7% v -0.5%e; y/y: 5.1% v 6.0%e


- Equities: Sony Ericsson [SNE and ERIC] Reported Q4 Net loss €187M compared to a profit €373M y/y, Rev €2.91B v €2.93Be. it noted that 24.2M units were shipped in the quarter compared to 30.8M y/y. it labeled 2008 as a 'tumultuous' year”. Its gross margins for Q4 came in at 15% compared to 22% q/q. Co President noted it would aggressively move into high end smart phone market and reiterated expectations that mobile phone market to contract by 5% in 2009 || Vestas Wind Systems [VWS.DC] Reported a DKK90M fraud detected by Spanish unit alledgedly perpetrated by former and current employees || Straumann [STMN.SZ] Reports FY Net revenues CHF779M compared to consensus estimates of CHF 787M. It noted that it would reduce its global workforce by nearly 3% (roughly 64 employees) || Delhaize [DELB.BE] Reported its Q4 revenues of €5.42B roughly inline with the €5.44B estimates. It maintained its FY08 outlook and would cut costs by €100M this year. To close 7 Sweetbay stores in US and sell 4 German stores at loss of €8M. It would release €50M from working capital in 2009 and saw FY09 capex of €600-620M || Akzo Nobel [AKZA.NV] To sell its non-stick coating activities to Whitford and expected to complete transaction in Q1 09.Financial details have not been disclosed. || C and C Group [CCR.UK] Reported Q3 revenues down13% y/y, while Op Margin fel by 3% y/y. It guided FY08 Op Profit €90M compared to €103.3M estimates || UBS [UBSN.SZ] Reportedly agreed to sell its Base Metals,
Oil, US Power unit to Barclays. Terms of agreement not disclosed but expected risk transfer of units by end of Q2 || Aer Lingus [AERL.UK] AERL.UK: Ryanair provided update on offer and noted that it did not intend to engage in a lengthy Phase II review process with the EU unless it receives such support from Aer Lingus shareholders. Ryanair's CEO noted that it would not raise offer for firm to any figure above €2/shr; from the current offer of €1.4/share 

|| Heidelbergcement [HEI.GE] WSJ reports that Goldman and TPG are considering a stake in the company and noted that a 20% stake in the company could be worth about €1B. || Renewable Energy [REC.NO] Awarded $340M wafer contract || Lufthansa [LHA.GE] Lowered its 2009 fuel cost estimates to €3.7B from prior estimate of €5.6B made back in Oct. The aAirline still expected to spend €5.4B for 2008 fuel purchases || Alfa Laval [ALFA.SW]Acquires South
Korea's Onnuri Industrial Machinery Co., Ltd. Financial terms were not disclosed. 

- Speakers: Chinese Central Bank Official Zhang responded to US Tsy Sec Paulson's view on global imbalances. PBoC stated that
China's saving ratio did not cause global financial crisis , citing that US policy failures and excessive consuption were factors behind the current situation. || BoE's Gieve commented that the full impact of BOE interest rate cuts have yet to be felt but noted that the economic risks remained to the downside with major challenge not to prolong the recession. The MPC must consider if more rate cuts and other monetary and fiscal measures needed. The decline in the Sterling FX rate would boost exports and help rebalancing ||China PBoC noted that it would encourage securitization of auto loans in order to broaden financing channels for auto industry. The central bank sought to utilize interbank lending to increase auto financing || UK Business Sec Mandelson: EU zone must be aware of support programs for auto sector in the US , noting it was important that EU maintains a level playing field in automotive competition || Czech Central Banker commented that it was unclear if economic conditions would continue to worsen in the coming period || EU Business group welcomed recent ECB interest rate cut and noted that central banks have room to maneuver. || 

- In Currencies: The session was characterized with a return of risk appetite following the recent ECB rate decision on Thursday and the additional bailout out of US banking giant BOA. The Senate approval of the second portion of the TARP program provided additional incentive for optimism. The JPY and USD were the primarily 'losers' in the session. EUR-JPY short-covering continued after holding a key support level of 116.30 on Thursday. Dealers also noted the decent
Far East appetite in the EUR/JPY pair. Dealer chatter noting that decent buying of EUR/USD call options with 1.35 strike with a mid-week expiration in the session. Technically, dealers noting that the EUR/USD was unable to sustain bearish momentum below the 1.3070 level on Thursday || Russia Central Bank confirms that its rouble trading band was again widened . This marks the fifth time in six day. The USD/RUB tested 32.6675, the weakest since the currency was redenominated back on Jan. 1, 1998. ||Barclays analyst comments on currencies and saw USD/CAD rising to 1.30 level in near term and could hit new highs.Risk to Canadian Dollar is up, not down. Saw 3-month USD/CAD at 1.28; 12-month at 1.20 ||

-Fixed income: -Fixed income: Peripheral Debt has been the focus of European fixed income in early trading, with Spanish, Italian,Greek and Irish debt blowing out to record spreads over Bunds since the adoption of the Euro in Jan 1999. The Greek
PDMA confirmed speculation that the country would launch a new 5 year euro benchmark bond issue next week||. The ECB and Swiss National Bank extend currency swap until "at least " April 2009 ||UBS analyst commented on the European FX and bond outlook . The analyst saw the ECB lowering its refi rate to 1.0% by mid-2009 and saw European country spreads near their peaks and likely to narrow by end of 2009|| At the time of writing better selling in the belly and longer parts of the curve has led to bear steepening in Europe, a theme being replicated in Gilts and UST's as equity markets

- In Energy: IEA cuts 2009 global oil demand forecast by 1M bpd to 85.3M bpd; anticipates further slowdown to global economy. IEA revision is the largest since 1996 and oil demand set for its first back-to-back annual drop since 1983

- Credit Crisis: Chinese Minister Li stated that the Chinese government was considering a stimulus program for 9 industries 

*** NOTES ***

- Risk appetite returned in the European session aided by the BOA bailout and the Senate approval for the second half of TARP funding. European bourses firmer by over 2% or higher across the board. The 'change' in sentiment helping to reverse recent gains exhibited by the USD and JPY related pairs. 

- Financial sector concerns continue to remain as Moody's noted it would review 10 Korean banks for possible downgrade and continued whispers that a US banking nationalizations remains a possibility 

- US Air 1549 pilot performance should perhaps qualify him for a key central banking post after demonstrating his ability to perform a “soft landing” under the most difficult of circumstances.

- Looking Ahead: 

- Key earnings ahead of the US equity open: Bank of America [BAC] and Citigroup [C] and Charles Schwab [SCHW]

- 8:30 (US) Dec CPI M/M: -0.9% expected v -1.7% prior; Y/Y: -0.2% expected v 1.1% prior

- 8:30 (US) Dec CPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: 0.1% expected v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.8% expected v 2.0% prior

- 8:30 (US) Dec CPI Core Index sa : No expectations v 216.849 prior

- 8:30 (US) Dec CPI NSA: 210.210 expected v 212.425 prior

- 9:00 (US) Nov Net long-term TIC Flows: $15.0B expected v $1.5B prior

- 9:00 (US) Total Net TIC Flows: No expectations v $286.3B prior

- 9:15 (US) Dec Industrial Production: -1.0% expected v -0.6% prior

- 9:15 (US) Dec Capacity Utilization: 74.5% expected v 75.4% prior

- 10 :00 (US) Jan Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence : 59.0 expected v 60.1 prior

- 10 :00 (MX) Mexican Overnight Rate: 50bps cut to 7.75% expected; current base rate is 8.25% 


- 10:30 (GE) Russian PM Putin to meet with German Chancellor Merkel in Berlin


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