- US equity indices extended yesterday's late rally before the opening bell
this morning, with Senate clearance of the second half of the TARP aiding the
positive sentiment. However indices have steadily lost altitude after the open
as investors dump financial stocks in the wake of Bank of America and Citi's
disclosure of big quarterly losses this morning. The -2% December industrial
production reading, twice the expected decline, is not helping either.
Front-month crude continues to weaken, down $0.60 to $34.80 as focus remains
centered on next week's contract roll over and the large stockpiles in Cushing.
Investors' better appetite for risk on the open has led to higher Treasury
yields as well as certain commodity prices. The Long bond future traded off as
much as 3 points before getting half of those losses back. The 10-year yield is
back above 2.3% and briefly approached 2.4% after the open of floor trade.
Metals futures have been a bright spot after gold was able to hold $800
yesterday. Spot gold is now approaching $840 while front month silver is up 7%.
- Bank of America
and Citigroup both reported sizable fourth-quarter losses this morning, as
expected. Both had moved up their reporting dates on short notice, presumably
to get a handle on their rapidly deteriorating share prices. Citi disclosed a
loss of $8.3B while BAC's loss was $2.4B; shares of the two rose more than 10%
before the bell, although shares of Citi were back in negative territory and
BAC-8% by mid morning. These quarterly reports come after the US
government moved to hand BAC another $20B in TARP capital to help it digest
Merrill Lynch's massive losses (on top of the $25B in TARP funds BAC has
already received). In connection with the TARP funds, BAC has slashed its
quarterly dividend to a penny from $0.32 and agreed to further limit executive
pay. Citigroup also announced that it would split itself into two units. The
first, Citicorp, will focus on traditional banking around the world, while the
other, Citi Holdings, will hold riskier assets slated for eventual sale. In one
piece of good news in the financials, regional bank First Horizon National
reported a smaller-than-expected Q4 loss and actually managed to lower it loan
loss provisions over last quarter. FHN was up nearly 20% in early trading.
- In other equity news, Johnson Controls
surprised markets with a -$0.14/shr loss and revenue that was well below
consensus estimates. The company said it expects to report a similar loss next
quarter as well. Shares of JCI are down 2%, off their worst levels. Elizabeth
Arden offered preliminary second-quarter results and 2009 guidance indicating
that earnings and revenue would be considerably less than the consensus view.
Estee Lauder cut its second-quarter forecast and guided well below the street
for 2009. RDEN-30% and EL-13% fell sharply in early trading.
- In currencies, risk appetite was back in early New York
trading despite the dismal news from Citi and Bank of America. Throughout the
morning a certain level of acceptance of events has been the common thread in
markets, with some dealers noting that it might be easier to be surprised by
moves to the upside than those to the downside moving forward. The risk
appetite prompted a rotation out of bonds and into equities as well as covering
long USD and JPY positions. But the euphoria waned somewhat as the New
York morning progressed as dealers witnessed decent
buying of EUR/USD call options with a 1.35 strike and a mid-week expiration. On
the technical side, dealers noted that the EUR/USD was unable to sustain
bearish momentum below the 1.3070 level on Thursday while the cross tested
above 1.3330 level on Friday before retracing its gains and heading for the
1.3235 area. The pound showed strength, probing the 1.50 neighborhood versus
USD and the mid 0.88 area against EUR. Reports circulated that UK
Chancellor Darling could announce Â£100B of new mortgage guarantees next week.
- The Russian Central Bank confirmed that it has once again widened the ruble
trading band, marking its fifth move in six days, with USD/RUB testing 32.6675.
Dealers say the Russian Central Bank likely spent around $26B defending the
currency this week, with Friday's interventions seen around $5B to $6B.
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
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The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
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