Tuesday January 20, 2009 - 12:22:42 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 20 -Jan-2009 - 1211 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.1393/99...Breaks Resistance at 1.14
R: 1.1473 / 1.1524-31 / 1.1618
S: 1.1329 / 1.1279-52 / 1.1240-30
The pair rose up towards 1.1479 during the day and has cooled off since then. In the process, the pair has broken above the Resistance on the upperside of the Triangle formation. Looks all set to move up further from here towards 1.15 and further up towards 1.17 over the next few days. As suggested in the morning, Swiss can be bought near 1.13 to make handsome gains, the pair behaved in a similar fashion as it rose from the low of 1.1342 to 1.1479 during the day.
Having broken above the Reistance and then falling a bit, makes one think if this rise was just a spike or it is coonsolidating for some time, which could be posssibly confirmed by the behaviour of Swiss over the US session. To see the chart of Swiss, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/chfcandle.shtml#candle
Long USD 10K at 1.1411, SL 1.1380, TP 1.1470
As soon as market trades 1.1440, take SL upto 1.1380.
GBP-USD @ 1.3954/58...Support at 1.39 may hold
R: 1.4127 / 1.4175 / 1.4255
S: 1.3900-885 / 1.3734
Cable continues to slide as it finds Support near 1.39 as mentioned earlier. Though looks pretty ripe to break this Support, there are also some hopes for it to bounce upwards till this Support holds. To see the chart of Cable, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/gbpmth.shtml#mth
A break below this Support could take the pair towards 1.3734.
AUD-USD @ 0.6595/97...Bearish
R: 0.6674-96 / 0.6709-35 / 0.6779-802
S: 0.6529 / 0.6390 / 0.6191
Aussie has made attempts to move upwards during the day only to find Resistance from the 13-MA on the 4-hourly. It looks likely to continue with the slide over the next few days with smaller bouts of consolidation or a menial rise in between. With interest rates expected to be cut by RBA in the next meeting in early February, Aussie would fall further over the next few days towards 0.6250 as this would mean another reason for the Dollars to move out of Australia, first being 'flight to safety'.
To see the chart of Aussie, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/audcandle.shtml#candle
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