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Wednesday January 21, 2009 - 21:32:59 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Month Ahead Forex Forecasts

Forex Forecast of Major Currency Pairs


The Global-View.com Month Ahead Currency Outlook is prepared weekly by the trading professionals at GVI Forex. For information on the GVI Forex Service Click Here

January 22, 2009

Overview

USD-

  • Focus now on new U.S. government. No choice but to hit the ground running.
  • Fed has been very aggressive in attacking U.S. problems, but markets have not responded yet.
  • U.S. economy continues to weaken. 1Q09 may be worse than 4Q08.
  • Credit markets in the U.S. have been unfreezing, but deleveraging is not done.
  • USD tone positive, partially due to worries overseas.

    JPY-
  • Japan has been hard hit by sluggish demand for its exports from abroad.
  • Fears of a return to the deflationary price pattern that plagued Japan over the past two decades.
  • Bank of Japan has effectively returned to a ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Program) with its target or overnight funds now +0.10%.
  • Nikkei closely correlated to USD/JPY values.
  • Deleveraging play favors JPY. Tokyo unhappy with strong JPY. JPY remains bid.


    Click on chart for two year history

    Europe
    EUR-
  • ECB behind the curve. It lost a stellar reputation by appearing to be out of touch
  • Monetary policy still has room for additional ease. ECB too focused on Germany to the detriment of other members?
  • Uncertain how weakness of economies, e.g. Spain and Ireland, will play out given no currency devaluation option.
  • EUR vulnerable until deleveraging ends.


    Click on chart for two year history

    GBP-
  • U.K. economy in a bad state. Financial sector hard hit.
  • Bank of England has become aggressive in policy. Close to a Quantitative Easing (QE) policy.
  • GBP vulnerable vs. the EUR. CHF-
  • Swiss economy slowing.
  • Swiss National Bank for all practical reasons has cut rates to zero.
  • CHF trades in a relatively steady range vs. the EUR.

    Commodity Currencies
    CAD-
  • Misnomer to call CAD a commodity currency, but heavily influenced by energy prices.
  • Canadian economy heavily influenced by the U.S.
  • Bank of Canada policy very easy at the present time. Inflation back within BOC target range.
  • CAD trading mostly inversely with USD.

    AUD/NZD-
  • Australia and New Zealand heavily dependent on global demand for commodities. Demand is way down, so the two are suffering.
  • Both banks have already eased aggressively; additional stimulus in the pipeline.
  • More than CAD, expect AUD and NZD to trade inversely with the USD.

    John M. Bland is co-founder and a partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in a forex inter-bank and futures trading arm of ContiCurrency, a subsidiary of the Continental Grain Company in NYC. Prior to that, he was an early member of the Chemical Bank corporate advisory service in NYC, and also worked in international liability management for that bank. John holds an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelor�s degree in International Economics from Berkeley.


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