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Forex Research - Euro Rebounds But Data Tempers Rally

Euro Rebounds But Data Tempers Rally

Last Updated 1/22/2009 4:08:44 AM EST (GMT +5)

Top Stories

  • Chinese growth lower than expeceted at 6.8% in Q4
  • Japanese Trade balance negative once again
  • BoJ keeps rates at 0.1%
  • Oil at $38.59/bbl below 40 once again
  • Gold better bid at $860/oz

Overnight Eco

  • NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index 42,5 against 35.2 last
  • JPY Trade Balance -0.15T vs. -0.33T forecast
  • AUD MI Inflation Expectations 2.7% vs. 2.5%
  • JPY Rate Decision 0.1% no change
  • EUR French Consumer Spending -0.9% vs. -0.2% expected
  • CHF ZEW Economic Expectations n/a
  • EUR Industrial New Orders n/a
  • GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations n/a

Event Risk on Tap

  • CAD Retail Sales
  • CAD Leading Index
  • USD Building Permits expected at 0.62M
  • USD Housing Starts expected at 0.61M
  • USD Unemployment Claims
  • USD House Price Index expected at -1.2%

Price Action

  • USD/JPY rebounds off yearly lows to 8900 handle after Japanese offcials warn
  • AUD/USD runs to 6600 as risk returns to equity markets
  • GBP/USD quiet in 1.3800's consolidating
  • EUR/USD runs to 1.3000 on short covering but data tempers rally

The EUR/USD ran to 1.3000 in early European trade today spurred by a major short squeeze in the Asian session as risk appetite returned to the currency market. However the pairs gains were tempered by a very weak French consumer spending report which suggested that growth in the region is likely to contract more severely than initially forecast.  

News that CEOs of  BoA and JPM both bought the stock of their own companies as a sign of confidence in the future, spurred a rally in Asian equity markets today propelling the EUR/USD higher. The pair rose to 1.3089 before trailing off on some profit taking. However, the release of woeful French consumer spending data which printed at -0.9% vs. -0.2% forecast capped the rally for the time being and the pair consolidated around the 1.3000 level for most of the early morning trade.  

As we noted earlier, “The news bodes badly for the rest of the Euro-zone as France and along with Germany remains the primary engine of growth for the rest of the region.  Not even the prospect of lower food and energy prices revived the spirits of French consumers who continue to conserve their cashflow in the face of escalating job losses that threaten their security.  Therefore Q1 of 2009 is shaping up to be especially challenging to French retailers and is likely to result in greater contraction in GDP than currently forecast.”    

With only a smattering of housing data and unemployment claims on the calendar today, the North American session does not carry much meaningful event risk. The flow is likely to be dominated by risk aversion/risk assumption themes and equity prices will dictate the EUR/USD direction. For the time being the pair is being lifted by improved risk appetite and that dynamic is likely to carry it to 1.3100 as the day develops.

FX Upcoming

Currency GMT EST Release Expected Prior
CAD 13:30 8:30 CAD Retail Sales -0.9%
CAD 13:30 8:30 CAD Leading Index -0.7%
USD 13:30 8:30 USD Building Permits 0.62M 0.62M
USD 13:30 8:30 USD Housing Starts 0.61M 0.63M
USD 13:30 8:30 USD Unemployment Claims
USD 15:00 10:00 USD House Price Index -1.2% -1.1%

About The Author

Schlossberg has more than 20 years experience financial trading on Wall Street. His daily currency research appears in numerous newspapers worldwide and Schlossberg serves as a regular contributor to CNBC's Squawk Box and Bloomberg radio and television. Read more >>

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. This forum and its information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision based upon this forum or any information contained within. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Boris Schlossberg will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Boris Schlossberg do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax or other professional advice. If such advice is sought, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.




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