- Equities: Sony [SNE] Lowered its 2008/09 op profit forecast to a loss of
Â¥260B from profit of Â¥200B. It also slashed its FY group net forecast to a loss
of Â¥150B from profit of Â¥150B. It guided Oct-Dec group net profit of Â¥10B and
forecasted a operating loss of Â¥18B . Sony will reduce its FY planned CAPEX to
Â¥380B from Â¥430B. The company cites the stronger yen and restructuring costs
for its forecast reduction. It now assumed dollar to avg Â¥90 and Euro Â¥120 in
Q4. || Nokia [NOK1V.FH] Reported Q4 Net â‚¬576M below the â‚¬997.6M estimates.
Revenues were â‚¬12.7B below â‚¬13.09B consensus. Nokia shipped 113.1M units, in
the quarter, down 15% y/y || Fiat [F.IT] Reported Q4 Net â‚¬163M compared to
â‚¬157M estimates while revenues came in at â‚¬13.1B below consensus of â‚¬14.17B.
The firm noted it would not pay FY08 dividend || KBC [KBC.BE] Expected a FY
loss of around â‚¬2.5B v loss â‚¬200Me. It confirmed earlier press speculation that
it did increase in its capital base || Societe BIC [BB.FR] To pay â‚¬124M for 40%
stake in Indian writing instrument business Cello . Noting that the stake would
be accretive to earnings in 2009 || Credit Agricole [ACA.FR] Les Echos reported
that the company was profitable in 2008 || Remy Cointreau [RCO.FR] Reported 9-month
revenues â‚¬604.5M compared to year-ago level of â‚¬631M. It guided FY08/09 Op
Profit down 15% y/y. || easy Jet [EZJ.UK] Provided Q1 interim management
statement: Revenue seen at Â£550M, up 32% y/y. Load factor 83.4% v 80.8% y/y ||
William Morrison [MRW.UK] Provided interim management statement in which its
6-week holiday SSS +6.6% (+8.2% ex fuel, Total sales +9.4% y/y. Company
remained cautious on the outlook for consumer spending and expected the market
to remain challenging || Great Portland [GPOR.UK] Reported Q3 Portfolio Value
Â£1.25B (-12.4% q/q), NAV 392p (-20.5% q/q) || Sligro [SLIGR.NV] Reported 2008
Net â‚¬71.3M compared to â‚¬74.0M expected, Revenues wereâ‚¬2.17B slightly below
consensus of â‚¬2.20B. || Novozymes [NZYMB.DC] Reported Q4 Net DKK241M below
expectations of DKK277M. Revenues were DKK2.03B compared to DKK2.09B estimates.
It guided FY09 Rev growth of 8-13% ||
- Speakers: ECB's Noyer reiterates that the ECB will do what is needed to
ensure price stability.. Sees lower inflation due to economic slowdown. The
global economy likely to stabilize this year and recovery in 2010- ||BoJ's
Shirakawa noted in his post rate decision press conference the economy has been
deteriorating significantly with JPY currency appreciation a factor. He noted
that the BoJ was not aiming to lower JGB yields but rather focusing on Long
term yields. the Commercial paper purchase program was not aimed at any
specific industries, but to focuses on improving overall corporate financing.
The JPY appreciation has hurt exporters and the economy in the short-term but
noted that a stronger JPY currency would improved terms of trade in longer term
as well as overseas M&A activity. The noted that a deflationary spiral
unlikely in Japan,
but must be watched || Japan Vice Fin Min Sugimoto: Abrupt currency moves
undesirable; no comment on specific levels || Bank of France noted that
Disinflation not deflation was likely in effect in French and Euro-Zone
regions. Some Eurozone countries and US will likely see temporary negative
inflation in 2009. The Economic stimulus and financial aid packages limit the
risk of negative price shock and that overall inflationary expectations remain
positive || Singapore Fin Min Shanmugaratnam: Planning stimulus of S$20.5B to
save jobs and help companies. To cut taxes and give cash to companies for
employing workers. The minister reiterates the view that the country 2009 GDP
was likely to decline by 2% to 5%. Could emerge from recession in late 2009;
but noted that it was equally likely that the recession could last into 2010 ||
German Econ Min Glos: Increased consumption could support GDP but not enough to
offset reduced exports, currently in worst recession since WW2. Glos confirmed
that the 2009 public deficit would be below 3% of GDP.
- In Currencies: The USD was mixed during the European morning as its price
action was a side-effect to CHF and JPY related flows. The carry-related pairs
came off their NY morning lows on Wednesday aided by comments from SNB's
Hildebrand who bluntly stated that its central bank could sell an unlimited
amount of CHF if necessary to stop the appreciation of the currency. There were
rumors that the SNB might have intervened in the EUR/CHF pair in the aftermath
on Wednesday. This rationale helps explain the USD's bi-polar personality.
- The EUR/USD tested a key hourly resistance level of 1.3070 helped by firmer
energy and metal prices.
- The JPY cross movement likely to be influenced by equity market price action.
- Dealer chatter making the rounds that G7 could discuss sterling depreciation
at upcoming meeting in Feb
- Fixed income: European Government Bonds have traded lower this morning.
Better selling in the long end has pushed the German yield curve towards its
steepest level since 2004, with the 2-10y spread approaching 164bps. Germany
continues to hold up better than its European counterparts, with the Italian
10y widening to a EMU record 167bps over Bunds in early trading , and later in
the session French auction results generally being perceived as weak. France
sold â‚¬7.5B in 1,2 and 5y BTAN's with the 5y yielding 64bps over the benchmark
OBL. Poland announced plans to launch a â‚¬1B 5y Euro denominated issue, with
pricing implying a yield of around 6:00% or roughly 375bps over the Bobl. ||In
the UK, the DMO
sold Â£3B 4.5% 2013 Gilts with a disappointing bid to cover of 1.66, lower than
the previous 1.96. Short dated gilts continue to outperform the rest of the
curve, pushing the 2-10y spread to its steepest level in at least a year at
- In Energy: Centrica [CNA.UK] British gas to lower gas prices by 10%;
effective Feb 19th. The reduction would apply to all 7.5M customers on British
Gas' standard tariff || Norske Skogindustrier [NSG.NO] Noted that its Q4
production volumes would be similar to prior its quarter || Tidbits: US Nov
Miles driven falls for 13th straight month and was the lowest on record; China
Dec y/y oil demand -5.5% ||
- Credit Crisis: FT article noted that the man responsible for managing the
UK's debt, Robert Stheeman, raised the prospect of a government bond auction
failing in coming months. Stheeman told the FT "clearly, the chance of a
bond auction failing has risen because we are having more than ever
before." The official added that there was anecdotal evidence that sterling
weakness was encouraging investors to buy gilts because they were cheap.
- Note: Back on 1/9, Stheeman said that the fall in GBP has not negatively
affected Gilt sales. || (RU) Russia Central Bank: Expect Q1 of 2009
non-performing loans to increase to 4.0-4.5% v 3.8% prior expectations
*** NOTES ***
- Global recession fears continue to mount but government measures softening
the fear factor. The BOJ stated that it would buy Commercial paper and ABCP.
The BOJ was also studying ways to buy corporate bonds. China
reassures that its economic downturn would be short-lived with no widespread
factory closures. US House panel had approved some of the key spending measures
for the projected $825B stimulus plan
- Dealer noting the demand destruction in oil-related products noting that
China y/y oil demand fell 5.5% in December and the US saw a record low in the
number of miles driven, which decline for the falls for 13th consecutive month.
- Sony [SNE] forecasted first annual loss in 14 years, citing strong JPY a factor.
Japanese officials tote the standard G7 line on currency volatility.
- US earning season picking up momentum. AAPL beat estimates after the close on
Wednesday. Some of the more notables expected before the bell include
AmerisourceBergen [ABC]; Baxter International [BAX]; BBT [BBT]; Exelon Corp
[EXC]; Lockheed Martin [LMT]; Southwest Airlines [LUV]; Suntrust [STI];
- Looking Ahead:
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jan 16th: No expectations v 15.8%
- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Dec Leading Indicators: -0.6% expected v -0.7% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Retail Sales M/M: -2.0% expected v -0.9% prior; Less
Autos: -1.5% expected v -1.1% prior
- 8:30 (US) Dec Housing Starts: 605k expected v 625k prior
- 8:30 (US) Dec Building Permits: 600k expected v 615k prior
- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims w/e Jan 17th: 543k expected v 524k prior
- 8:30 (US) Continuing Claims w/e Jan 10th: 4.534M expected v 4.497M prior
- 8:30 (EU) ECB's Tumpel-Gugerell speaks in Brussels
- 10:30 (CA) Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
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