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Thursday January 22, 2009 - 11:29:16 GMT
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Forex Blog - European market Update: SNB raises the spectre of currency intervention and a potential discussion on exchange rates at the G7

Today 06:13am

European market Update: SNB raises the spectre of currency intervention and a potential discussion on exchange rates at the G7



- (IN) India Wholesale Price Index: 5.60% v 5.05%e 

- (FR) French Dec Consumer Spending M/M: -0.9% v -0.2%e; Y/Y:-1.1% v -0.6%e 

- (HK) Hong Kong Dec CPI - Composite Index Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.7%e 

- (DE) Denmark Jan Consumer Confidence Indicator: -9.1% v -13.5% prior

- (NV) Dutch Dec Unemployment Rate: 3.9% v 3.9%e 

- (NV) Dutch Jan Consumer Confidence Indicator: -30 v -29e 

- (SW) Swedish Dec Unemployment Rate: 6.4% v 6.6%e 

- (EU) ECB Jan Monthly Report: Reiterates Jan 15th Trichet press conference; Inflation risks broadly balance; Euro-Zone experiencing significant economic slowdown

- SZ) Swiss ZEW Survey Expectations: -66.7 v -77.5e 

- (EU) Nov Industrial New Orders M/M: -4.5% v -5.0%e; Y/Y: -26.2% v -20.0% 

- (BZ) Brazil Unemployment Rate: 6.8% v 7.1%e 

- (UK) CBI Quarterly Industrial Trends Total Orders: -48 v - -38e


- Equities: Sony [SNE] Lowered its 2008/09 op profit forecast to a loss of ¥260B from profit of ¥200B. It also slashed its FY group net forecast to a loss of ¥150B from profit of ¥150B. It guided Oct-Dec group net profit of ¥10B and forecasted a operating loss of ¥18B . Sony will reduce its FY planned CAPEX to ¥380B from ¥430B. The company cites the stronger yen and restructuring costs for its forecast reduction. It now assumed dollar to avg ¥90 and Euro ¥120 in Q4. || Nokia [NOK1V.FH] Reported Q4 Net €576M below the €997.6M estimates. Revenues were €12.7B below €13.09B consensus. Nokia shipped 113.1M units, in the quarter, down 15% y/y || Fiat [F.IT] Reported Q4 Net €163M compared to €157M estimates while revenues came in at €13.1B below consensus of €14.17B. The firm noted it would not pay FY08 dividend || KBC [KBC.BE] Expected a FY loss of around €2.5B v loss €200Me. It confirmed earlier press speculation that it did increase in its capital base || Societe BIC [BB.FR] To pay €124M for 40% stake in Indian writing instrument business Cello . Noting that the stake would be accretive to earnings in 2009 || Credit Agricole [ACA.FR] Les Echos reported that the company was profitable in 2008 || Remy Cointreau [RCO.FR] Reported 9-month revenues €604.5M compared to year-ago level of €631M. It guided FY08/09 Op Profit down 15% y/y. || easy Jet [EZJ.UK] Provided Q1 interim management statement: Revenue seen at £550M, up 32% y/y. Load factor 83.4% v 80.8% y/y || William Morrison [MRW.UK] Provided interim management statement in which its 6-week holiday SSS +6.6% (+8.2% ex fuel, Total sales +9.4% y/y. Company remained cautious on the outlook for consumer spending and expected the market to remain challenging || Great Portland [GPOR.UK] Reported Q3 Portfolio Value £1.25B (-12.4% q/q), NAV 392p (-20.5% q/q) || Sligro [SLIGR.NV] Reported 2008 Net €71.3M compared to €74.0M expected, Revenues were€2.17B slightly below consensus of €2.20B. || Novozymes [NZYMB.DC] Reported Q4 Net DKK241M below expectations of DKK277M. Revenues were DKK2.03B compared to DKK2.09B estimates. It guided FY09 Rev growth of 8-13% || 

- Speakers: ECB's Noyer reiterates that the ECB will do what is needed to ensure price stability.. Sees lower inflation due to economic slowdown. The global economy likely to stabilize this year and recovery in 2010- ||BoJ's Shirakawa noted in his post rate decision press conference the economy has been deteriorating significantly with JPY currency appreciation a factor. He noted that the BoJ was not aiming to lower JGB yields but rather focusing on Long term yields. the Commercial paper purchase program was not aimed at any specific industries, but to focuses on improving overall corporate financing. The JPY appreciation has hurt exporters and the economy in the short-term but noted that a stronger JPY currency would improved terms of trade in longer term as well as overseas M&A activity. The noted that a deflationary spiral unlikely in Japan, but must be watched || Japan Vice Fin Min Sugimoto: Abrupt currency moves undesirable; no comment on specific levels || Bank of France noted that Disinflation not deflation was likely in effect in French and Euro-Zone regions. Some Eurozone countries and US will likely see temporary negative inflation in 2009. The Economic stimulus and financial aid packages limit the risk of negative price shock and that overall inflationary expectations remain positive || Singapore Fin Min Shanmugaratnam: Planning stimulus of S$20.5B to save jobs and help companies. To cut taxes and give cash to companies for employing workers. The minister reiterates the view that the country 2009 GDP was likely to decline by 2% to 5%. Could emerge from recession in late 2009; but noted that it was equally likely that the recession could last into 2010 || German Econ Min Glos: Increased consumption could support GDP but not enough to offset reduced exports, currently in worst recession since WW2. Glos confirmed that the 2009 public deficit would be below 3% of GDP.

- In Currencies: The USD was mixed during the European morning as its price action was a side-effect to CHF and JPY related flows. The carry-related pairs came off their NY morning lows on Wednesday aided by comments from SNB's Hildebrand who bluntly stated that its central bank could sell an unlimited amount of CHF if necessary to stop the appreciation of the currency. There were rumors that the SNB might have intervened in the EUR/CHF pair in the aftermath on Wednesday. This rationale helps explain the USD's bi-polar personality. 

- The EUR/USD tested a key hourly resistance level of 1.3070 helped by firmer energy and metal prices. 

- The JPY cross movement likely to be influenced by equity market price action. 

- Dealer chatter making the rounds that G7 could discuss sterling depreciation at upcoming meeting in Feb 

- Fixed income: European Government Bonds have traded lower this morning. Better selling in the long end has pushed the German yield curve towards its steepest level since 2004, with the 2-10y spread approaching 164bps. Germany continues to hold up better than its European counterparts, with the Italian 10y widening to a EMU record 167bps over Bunds in early trading , and later in the session French auction results generally being perceived as weak. France sold €7.5B in 1,2 and 5y BTAN's with the 5y yielding 64bps over the benchmark OBL. Poland announced plans to launch a €1B 5y Euro denominated issue, with pricing implying a yield of around 6:00% or roughly 375bps over the Bobl. ||In the UK, the DMO sold £3B 4.5% 2013 Gilts with a disappointing bid to cover of 1.66, lower than the previous 1.96. Short dated gilts continue to outperform the rest of the curve, pushing the 2-10y spread to its steepest level in at least a year at 208bps

- In Energy: Centrica [CNA.UK] British gas to lower gas prices by 10%; effective Feb 19th. The reduction would apply to all 7.5M customers on British Gas' standard tariff || Norske Skogindustrier [NSG.NO] Noted that its Q4 production volumes would be similar to prior its quarter || Tidbits: US Nov Miles driven falls for 13th straight month and was the lowest on record; China Dec y/y oil demand -5.5% || 

- Credit Crisis: FT article noted that the man responsible for managing the UK's debt, Robert Stheeman, raised the prospect of a government bond auction failing in coming months. Stheeman told the FT "clearly, the chance of a bond auction failing has risen because we are having more than ever before." The official added that there was anecdotal evidence that sterling weakness was encouraging investors to buy gilts because they were cheap.

- Note: Back on 1/9, Stheeman said that the fall in GBP has not negatively affected Gilt sales. || (RU) Russia Central Bank: Expect Q1 of 2009 non-performing loans to increase to 4.0-4.5% v 3.8% prior expectations 

*** NOTES ***

- Global recession fears continue to mount but government measures softening the fear factor. The BOJ stated that it would buy Commercial paper and ABCP. The BOJ was also studying ways to buy corporate bonds. China reassures that its economic downturn would be short-lived with no widespread factory closures. US House panel had approved some of the key spending measures for the projected $825B stimulus plan 

- Dealer noting the demand destruction in oil-related products noting that China y/y oil demand fell 5.5% in December and the US saw a record low in the number of miles driven, which decline for the falls for 13th consecutive month. 

- Sony [SNE] forecasted first annual loss in 14 years, citing strong JPY a factor. Japanese officials tote the standard G7 line on currency volatility. 

- US earning season picking up momentum. AAPL beat estimates after the close on Wednesday. Some of the more notables expected before the bell include AmerisourceBergen [ABC]; Baxter International [BAX]; BBT [BBT]; Exelon Corp [EXC]; Lockheed Martin [LMT]; Southwest Airlines [LUV]; Suntrust [STI];

- Looking Ahead: 

- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jan 16th: No expectations v 15.8% prior

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Dec Leading Indicators: -0.6% expected v -0.7% prior

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Retail Sales M/M: -2.0% expected v -0.9% prior; Less Autos: -1.5% expected v -1.1% prior

- 8:30 (US) Dec Housing Starts: 605k expected v 625k prior

- 8:30 (US) Dec Building Permits: 600k expected v 615k prior

- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims w/e Jan 17th: 543k expected v 524k prior

- 8:30 (US) Continuing Claims w/e Jan 10th: 4.534M expected v 4.497M prior

- 8:30 (EU) ECB's Tumpel-Gugerell speaks in Brussels

- 10:30 (CA) Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report


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