Thursday December 30, 2004 - 00:56:34 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 30th December 2004 Price:
Resistance: 1.3622 ... 1.3642 ... 1.3672 ... 1.3692
Support....: 1.3577 ... 1.3555 ... 1.3518 ... 1.3475
While the 1.3575-80 area supports there remains a chance of a direct rally else a move down to 1.3518 is possible before recovery
The marginal highs between 1.3642-44 have been frustrating with the subsquent dips to lower lows that marginally broke below the 1.3567 support. Never-the-less, the overall structure since the original 1.3639 high does look more corrective and tentatively we feel there is a chance of the uptrend resuming. There is initial support at 1.3580-90 and while this holds we could see a move up to 1.3620-25 which should hold and cause a pullback to the 1.3575-80 area again. However, if the above pattern is seen we feel this will present a good buying opportunity for a stronger move higher with resistance first at 1.3672-92.
The whippiness of the consolidation since 1.3639 has been frustrating but we feel the corrective pattern may have completed at 1.3555. However, we need to be aware of the relationships within this structure which, if maintained will mean that a drop below 1.3575-80 and then 1.3555 may cause a dip down to 1.3518 which should be watched for signs of a stronger recovery. Only below 1.3510 would lead to stronger losses to 1.3475 and 1.3423.
Elliott Wave Comments:
December 28th 2004
While there is a chance that the triangle ended at 1.3342 we actually prefer a more simple structure which calls for the 1.3138 low to have completed Wave [b] and thus a Wave [c] is now well into development. The target for Wave (iii) is around 1.3678-92 and a 38.2% - 50% correction should be expected there which implies support at 1.3500 and 1.3444 which should complete Wave (iv). From this retracement low look for gains in Wave (v). A target for Wave [c] can be seen at 1.3873 being 138.2% of Wave [a] and also a daily target at 1.3925.
December 30th 2004
We are a little in two minds since the peaks at 1.3639-44 do not appear to have reached a target for Wave (iii). However, with the pattern since the 1.3639 high having developed in what appears to be an expanding triangle with regular projectiosn of 161.8% we are beginning to feel that this may have completed Wave (iv) at 1.3555 (max 1.3518). A Wave (v) projection would then be generated around the 1.3865-1.3925 area and thus we should eb aware of the risk of a direct rally to this final target.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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