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Wednesday May 19, 2004 - 08:46:42 GMT -

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Dollar/Swiss Bounces Off 100-Day SMA

Technical Commentary

· Dollar Swiss Bounces off 100-Day SMA
· Inside Day in British Pound

The inside day and lateral price action in the EURUSD indicates that although the overall bear trend remains intact below the March 5th high of 1.2180, a period of consolidation may occur before we see resumed losses. Bears will continue to look to sell on rallies towards 1.2125, the upper Bollinger / 100-day EMA / trendline resistance and 38.2% fibo of the Sept-Aug rally. The potential double bottom will give bulls an attractive risk to reward opportunity to buy on dips towards 1.1760, the lower Bollinger / April-26 low / 2-yr bull channel support. Weak short-term support is at 1.1940, the 38.2% fibo of 1.1725-1.2060 / May 12th low / 10-day EMA / 20-day SMA. Near-term resistance is at 1.2060, the 50-day SMA. The trend in USDJPY remains upwards until we see a break below 112.46, the 5/12 low and 50% fibo support from the Aug-April bear wave. Before that level is taken out and bears initiate shorts for a more sustained move lower, bulls can still attempt a test of the former head & shoulders neckline at 115. However, with volatility at such elevated levels, there is a high likelihood of consolidation and retracement after the break and stalling at 116, the 138.2% fibo from the Mar bear wave and 120 July highs. An inside day, contracting volatility and continual consolidation between the 10 & 200-day SMA in the GBPUSD increases the probability of an immediate break and volatility expansion. Although the bear trend remains in tact below the 1.80 head & shoulders neckline, a series of higher lows and minor bullish divergence in momentum indicates that the scales are weighted slightly more in favor of an upside break. Shorts will look to sell on a break of Friday's low and the 200-day SMA at 1.7450 to target 1.7375, the 38.2% fibo of 1.5614 - 1.9137. Bulls can take advantage of some near term gains towards 1.80, on a move above 1.7800, the 5/12 high and 20-day EMA. Tuesday’s bounce off of support at the 100-day SMA in USDCHF puts 1.27-1.30 in play. Bears will look to sell on rallies towards the 1.3100 former highs. A close above that level would be needed to negate short-term bearish momentum and give bulls an opportunity to target a move towards 1.3200, the 50% fibo of Aug-Jan bear wave / upper Bollinger and 1.3230, the 4/26 high. Bulls will continue to look to buy on dips towards 1.2700, the 50% fibo of 1.2140-1.3226. Below that level, support is at 1.2555, the 61.8% fibo.


Comment from 04/22
On 03/29 EURJPY had a low at 27.20 before a quick bounce to the 29.84 High on 03/30, 264pts higher. The cross found S on the 25.83 low (fakeout movement) and then rallied to fail short of our 31.50/32.00 level (high at 30.71). As long as 31.00/31.50 holds, the outlook is bearish. As a result, bears will certainly try to capitalize on the 31.00/50 area to exploit the 200 SMA, High BB and 50% Fibo from the Nov - Mar bull wave. A sustained breakout above would open the door to 35. Below, bulls will have few choices but 25.20/50 might inspire reversal players thanks to the Low BB, Swing low and 38.2% Fibo from the 01 - 03 bull wave. A confirmed breakout below 24.00/25.50 would confirm the current double top and would turn the outlook extremely bearish (target: 110).

On 04/23 EURJPY had a high at 31.06 before a retracement to the bottom of the range and 287pts lower (low at 28.19 on 04/26). The Euro rallied from there, broke 31.00/50 on 04/29 and then used the former R as S (lows between 31.34 & 31.49 between 04/30 & 05/05). The cross reached 35 on 05/10 and stalled in the area for 3 days. EURJPY finally reached 37.95 yesterday, 645pts higher. Today the outlook is bullish but the cross is in overbought territory. Buy on dips seem to be the best approach for bulls. Aggressive players will step in at 35.00/50 in order to exploit the 10 SMA, the ST trend S and the breakout retracement from the 35 level (R now S). Below, two areas will attract more conservative bulls: 32.50/90 thanks to the 100 SMA and 50% Fibo from the Mar bear wave and 30.80/31.10 thanks to the 200 SMA and 38.2% Fibo from the Mar bear wave. Bears will have to stay on the sidelines but reversal players might try to exploit the March’s swing High and the high BB at 38.40/39.00.


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