- Equities: Xstrata [XTA.UK] Reports FY Net of $3.6B below consensus of
$4.56Be. Revenues were $27.9B versus $29.3B estimates. It will not declare
final dividend for FY08 and intends to raise Â£4.1B with 2 for 1 rights offer.
The CEO noted that CEO it would reduce its 2009 capex in half to about $3B adding
that the priority is to conserve cash, not M&A || Royal Dutch Shell [RDS.A]
Reported Q4 net loss $2.81B compared profit $4.09Be. Revenues were $81.07B
below expectations of $89.1B. It noted that industry conditions remained
challenging and were continuing to focus on capital and cost discipline ||
Swatch [UHR.SZ] Reported 2008 Sales CHF5.97B compared to estimates of CHF5.85B.
it forecasted a difficult H1 and restrained growth during 2009 || Ipsen
[IPN.FR] Reported Q4 revenues of â‚¬235.9M compared to year ago levels of â‚¬233.
For 2008 revenues were â‚¬971M v â‚¬1.02Be || Toshiba [6502.JP] Reported 9-months
Net loss of Â¥159.6B versus year-ago profit of Â¥126.2B and lowered its 2009
guidance. Moody's cuts the firm's credit rating to Baa1 from A3 and place it on
review for possible additional downgrade . || Sony [6758.JP] Reported 9 month
group Net profit Â¥66.2B v Â¥340.4B y/y || Hennes & Mauritz [HMB.SW] Reported
Q4 Net of SEK5.09B above consensus of SEK4.89Be. its revenues were SEK26.3B
slightly better that the SEK25.9B expectations. It remained positive on its
outlook and noted it would create 6K to 7K new jobs in 2009 and planed 225
stores || Mitchells & Butlers [MAB.UK] Reported 9 week like-for-like sales
+1% y/y. It noted that recessionary pressures are intensifying || Kazakhmys
[KAZ.UK] Provided Q4 Production Update || Lonmin [LMI.UK] Reported Q1 Total
production of 3.1M tons (flat y/y). It Chairman Sir John
Craven to retire || Cookson [CKSN.UK] Proposed 12 for 1 rights issue to raise
Â£240M. Announced workforce reduction of 1.25K positions and would suspend its
dividend || Union Fenosa [UNF.SP] Reported FY08 Net of â‚¬1.19B above consensus
of â‚¬1.00Be. Revenues were Rev â‚¬7.19B better then the â‚¬6.79B expectations and
its EBITDA also beat with its â‚¬2.28B compared to â‚¬2.24B estimates. || SAB.SP:
Chairman says bank's non performance loan ratio could reach 4.5% by year end ||
Volvo [VOLVB.SW] Awarded order for 424 buses from Norway and Sweden || BMW
[BMW.GE] Denied market speculation of a imminent profit warning and noted it
would announce its 2008 results next week || UBS [UBSN.SZ] Weakness attributed
to chatter circulating of a Q4 trading loss of CHF1B
- Speakers: ECB Trichet noted that the central bank does not exclude cutting
rates below 2.00%. He added that there was no chance of any Euro-zone breakup
from economic crisis || EU's Almunia reiterated that Euro Zone will not fall
apart due to economic crisis || Japan Cabinet: Recession began back in Nov
2007; Expansion to Oct 2007 lasted 69 months and was the longest since World
War II || BOJ Deputy Gov Nishimura noted that excessive policy intervention
could hurt markets. He added that the 0.1% policy rate was the' best' for time
being noting that it was not easy to set term rates as policy target || EU's
Almunia noted that the situation of credit market remains the real issue and
need to be continually monitored. || India's
Nath expressed concerned over increased protectionism || German Labor Dept:
Economic downturn has reached the job market, but situation in service sector
remain 'good.' He expected that an increase in short-term work would occur in
coming months ||
- In Currencies: The USD was firmer in the European morning. Overall dealers
attributed the USD strength on the view that the FED and the US
were more proactive in dealing with the on-going economic crisis compared to Europe
and others. The USD also benefited on continued concerns that the new upper
limit imposed by the Russian Central bank (CBR) last week would be tested far
sooner then what the RCB indicated || Russian Central Bank Gold/FX reserves :
$386.5B v $396.2B prior week. Russian banks are reportedly in need of large
capital injections, according to today's F.T . T CBR has lost nearly $10Bln,
with the reserve pool falling from $396.2Bln to $386.5Bln. Yet still the Ruble
continues to weaken.
-Commodity-related currencies are softer as both Gold and Silver seem to be
losing upward momentum for the time being. RBNZ continues it aggressive rate
cutting cycle with its 150bps move during Asia.
- In Energy: OPEC Sec Gen El-Badri noted that he believed that compliance of
recent output cuts would remove 4.2M bpd from market. He commented that he saws
idle capacity of 7-8M bpd . He reiterated that oil prices of $40-50 were too
low and does not permit investment in capacity and that oil demand should pick
up in 2010 but unclear if oil prices will decline further
-In fixed income, the UK sold Â£3.5B 2020's gilts with disappointing results,
bids producing a bid-to cover of 1.37 , much lower than 2 times average over
the previous three auctions . Appetite for Italian debt continues to raise
eyebrows with Italy
selling over â‚¬6B in 4 and 10y BTPs and â‚¬995M in a 2015 FRN. Dealers have noted
the persistent demand from Italian domestic accounts.
*** NOTES ***
- The mood within Europe seemed to take on a darker
color this morning. Swirls or potential profit warnings, higher unemployment
figures offset the euphoria of the House passing the US
-The Russian currency continues to move towards it new imposed ceiling of
RUB41. Dealers noted that The RUB weakened by around 2% in today's session,
while Rusiian FX reserves fell by another $10B in the latest data. The Ruble
endured its biggest two- day drop in a decade against the USD.
- France being
impacted by a series of strikes among its public transport sector and ports as
worker express unity over the issue of job security.
- ECB's Trichet reiterated that the March policy meeting is more important than
Feb when fresh staff projections would be
- Looking Ahead:
- 7:20 (GE) German Chancellor Merkel and Chinese Premier Wen hold press
conference in Berlin
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Dec Industrial Product Price M/M: -2.0% expected v -2.6%
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Dec Raw Materials Price Index: -10.0% expected v -13.4%
- 8:30 (US) Dec Durable Goods Orders: -2.0% expected v -1.5% prior
- 8:30 (US) Durables Ex Transportation: -2.7% expected v 0.6% prior
- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims w/e Jan 24th: 575k expected v 589k prior
- 8:30 (US) Continuing Claims w/e Jan 17th: 4.62M expected v 4.607M prior
- 10:00 (US) New Home Sales: 397k expected v 407k prior. M/M: -2.5% expected v
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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