Forex Blog - European Morning Update: ECB's Liikanen says Zero interest rates not necessarily a solution to credit crunch and deflation; Gold moves above $920/oz on speculation that Chinese funds are
Morning Update: ECB's Liikanen says Zero interest rates not necessarily a
solution to credit crunch and deflation; Gold moves above $920/oz on
speculation that Chinese funds are being told to avoid U.S. Treasury's; Russia
Central Bank vows that Ruble will maintain its ceiling of 41 in basket
*** ECONOMIC DATA ***
- (IN) India Q1 Annual GDP 9.0% v 9.6% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Dec M2 Money Supply Y/Y: -1.35 v -12.1% prior
- (SP) Spain Nov Current Account: -ÔéČ8.5B v -ÔéČ7.5Be
- (SP) Spain Jan Preliminary CPI - EU Harmonized Y/Y: 0.8% v 1.1%e
- (IT) Italian Retailer's Confidence: 95.5 v 88.7 prior; Services Survey: -30 v
- (IT) Italian Nov Large Company Employment Y/Y: -1.0% v -0.6% prior
- (NO) Norway Dec Retail Sales M/M: 0.1% v -1.0%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v-0.6%
- (CZ) Czech Dec Money Supply: 6.5% v 7.9% prior
- (UK) Dec Net Consumer credit: ┬ú0.3B v ┬ú0.7Be; Net Lending: ┬ú1.9B v ┬ú0.6e
- (UK) Dec Mortgage Approvals: 31K v 26ke
- (UK) Dec Final M4 Money Supply: M/M: 1.4% v 1.7% prior; Y/Y: 16.1% v 16.6%
- (IT) Italian PPI M/M: -1.3% v -1.2%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v1.0%e
- (EU) Euro-zone Jan CPI Estimate: 1.1% v1.4%e; lowest since July 1999
- (EU) Euro-zone Unemployment Rate: 8.0% v7.9%e; highest since Oct 2006
- Equities: Honda Motor [HMC] Reports Q3 net profit ┬ą20.2B compared to ┬ą200B
y/y || Kuoni [KUNN.SZ] Guided FY08 Rev CHF4.86B versus 4.96B estimates. It
announce that it would reduce its workforce and initiates 3-year CHF106M
investment and cost reduction program. || Roche [ROG/sz} Reduced offer for
Genetech [DNA] to $86.50/share in cash for the company from $89/shr prior ||
Kloecker [KCO.GE] Reported Q4 Operating loss of ÔéČ65M. It FY08 revenues were
ÔéČ6.70B slightly below the ÔéČ6.84B consensus estimates. It noted that it was
impossible to issue guidance for 2009. || Misys [MSY.UK] Reported H1 Adj Op
profit ┬ú36M versus ┬ú35M y/y. its revenues were ┬ú280M compared to ┬ú230M y/y.
Company was conscious of the difficult environment, but remained optimistic
that it would achieve full year targets. || Porsche [PAH3.GE] CEO stated that
H1 Rev ÔéČ3B which was lower by 14% y/y as Car sales plunged by 27% to at 34K
units. CEO gave no current FY outlook. Company targeted to increase 50.76% stake
in Volkswagen to 75% throughout 2009 depending on economic circumstances ||
Close Brothers [CBG.UK] Provided trading update in which its FY08 AUM was ┬ú7.1B
compared ┬ú7.0B from prior quarter. It noted that the businesses have faced
increasingly challenging and unpredictable trading conditions; but expected to
benefit from a particularly strong performance in our Securities division ||
Banco Popular [POP.SP] Reported Q4 Net of ÔéČ92.6M below consensus of ÔéČ235M. its
FY08 Net ÔéČ1.05B versus ÔéČ1.17B expectations. It was not considering a capital
increase, to continue paying dividends but will not increase payout || Dexia
[DEXB.BE] Announced transformation plan in which it would book net loss of
about ÔéČ3B in 2008. it also announce that it planned to cut 2008 dividends and
eliminate 900 jobs (about 2.5% of workforce) || Lufthansa [LHA.GE] Reportedly
Cargo Unit strikes an agreement with employees to shorten work week, impacting
2.6K jobs in Germany || Renault [RNO.FR] CEO commented that he saw 2009
Industry car sales down by 14% to 55M units; will be a 'tough' year. He did
note pent up demand was strong in emerging markets. Coordinated support needed
for European auto makers
- Speakers: ECB"s Liikanen: GDP in developed countries to contract
considerable; Zero interest rates not necessarily a solution to credit crunch
or deflation. He noted that the deflation risk was smaller in Europe
than in US. Deflationary expectation would be detrimental || SNB's Roth noted
that the central bank still has the ability to support economy in comments from
a newspaper interview. He stated that Swiss banks are among the 'best
capitalized banks in the world' but acknowledged that they could face trouble
if global economy continued to deteriorate || German Fin Ministry expected the
recession to continue for the time being and noted that the job market
situation would deteriorate further in next few months. He noted that
deflationary trends should not be feared as a slowdown of core inflation was
not expected || Russian Central Bank's Ignatyev stated that he would not allow
ruble to fall beyond 41 to the basket and would use currency intervention of
other monetary tools if necessary ||RBNZ's Bollard: Sees additional room for
rate cuts and capacity for cash injection; Expects economy, households, and
exports to remain weak through 2009 || Japan MoF: Confirms that did not
intervene in the currency markets during January || US Econ Advisor Tyson
stated that the Obama administration sought to incresase economic growth in H2
with a front loaded stimulus package. US does not plan long-term
nationalization of banks || Swiss KOF: Jan Banking indicator hits lowest level
since survey began back in 2000
- In Currencies: The USD was mixed against the major pairs. The EUR/USD tested
below the 1.2900 level ahead of the European morning as vague rumors circulated
that perhaps Greece might withdraw from EMU this weekend. The yield on
Greek 10y closed at 247bps over Bund on Thursday, which was below the record
300bps touched on 26th of Jan. ECB's Trichet commented on Thursday that there
was no chance of an EMU breakup. The Russian Ruble weakendabove 40 against the
basket but remained within recently expanded ceiling of 41. The Russian Central
Bank'head Ignatyev was vocal in noting that the Ruble weakness would not go
beyond the 41 to the basket and vowed that it would use currency intervention
and other monetary tools to ensure that task. Ahead of the NY morning the
EUR/USD tested 1.2835 following the lower Euro-Zone CPI estimate and the 8.0%
- the GBP was firmer against the USD and Euro pairs. BOE's Blanchflowwer
commented on Thursday that he wasÔÇŁBullish on the poundÔÇŁ and saw it as
undervalued. EUR/GBP moving below the 0.90 level while GBP/USD probed around
the 1.43 handle. The UK mortgage approval data also aided the GBP's cause in
the session with its better reading in December.
- Note that the USD was modestly steady to firmer despite the higher gold
prices. Spot Gold broke above the "key" $920/oz level as dealer
chatter suggested that strong gold demand being attributed to speculation that
Chinese funds are being told to avoid U.S. Treasury's
Reportedly Eurozone seeks that the new US administration to get more involved on currency
policy at G7 meetings. The 'source' noted that EU sought to avoid strong
fluctuations in FX and keep FX markets calm during times of crisis. It also
stated that currency intervention was unlikely; but more cooperation between
the US and the Eurozone group could help reduce volatility
- Fixed income: In fixed income the German yield curve has exhibited a
steepening bias this morning, with the long end of the curve selling off in
response to yesterday's disappointing T-Note auction and the short end rallying
in response to weak CPI and unemployment figures. Better than expected mortgage
lending data has eased some of the pressure on Gilts which solidified yesterday
after the UK's own weak auction, and expected supply next week, but yields are
still higher across the curve , with March Gilts down 30 ticks at 117.30 at the
time of writing.
- In Energy: OPEC Sec Gen El Badri reiterate sit wopuld cut output further at
its March summit if market was not balanced. He again urge non-OPEC oil
producers to lower supply if current OPEC cuts fail to balance the oil market
|| IEA's Tanaka: Turkey is an important strategic transit route, notes
stability in Middle East is important for investors. NYMEX Mar crude was off
0.30 to move towards $41.oo level.
- Credit Crisis: JP Morgan analyst: Forecasts German banks to take up to ÔéČ34B
of potential collective write downs and identifies up to ÔéČ93B of assets 'at
risk.' The analyst expected Deutsche Postbank to take ÔéČ4B in write downs;
Aareal bank to take ÔéČ2B in write downs. Expected Hypo Real estate to take ÔéČ8B
in write downs
*** NOTES ***
- What the global leaders need to be aware of is that credit remains more
effective than interest rates. Today the attention is focused on the US GDP
today and the question is just how negative the reading would be. Below -3%
would be the worst since 1982 and below a -6.4% reading would be the lowest
since 1980. The global economic front remains dismal following a slew of
Japanese data that was all below expectations today. Euro-Zone Unemployment
came in at 8.0%. The New Zealand Central Bank stated that it had room to
continue its aggressive easing cycle.
- ECB's Trichet stated on Thursday that no breakup of Euro-Zone would happen,
but 'vague' rumors circulated that Greece could pull out this weekend.
- Looking Ahead:
- 7:00 (CL) Chile Dec Copper Production: v 442.8K tons prior
- 8:30 (CA) Nov GDP M/M: -0.4% expected v -0.1% prior
- 8:30 (US) GDP Q4 Adv Q/Q Annualized: -5.5% expected v -0.5% prior
- 8:30 (US) Q4 Personal Consumption: -3.5% v -3.8% prior
- 8:30 (US) Q4 GDP Price Index: 0.4% expected v 3.9% prior
- 9:00 (US) Nov RPX Composite 28dy Y/Y: No expectations v -20.14% prior
- 9:00 (US) Nov RPX Composite 28dy Index: No expectations v 206.73
- 9:45(US) Chicago Purchasing Manager: 34.9 expected v 35.1 prior
- 10:00 (US) Jan Final University of Michigan Confidence: 61.9 expected
- 10:00 (US) Jan NAPM- Milwaukee: no expectations v 30 prior
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a
product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is
for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment
advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed
reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete
2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be
delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread,
misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are
willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6.
Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing
additional information. Trade The News is not liable
(financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities
involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a
regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Tue 19 June 2018 A 12:30 US- House Permits/Starts Wed 20 June 2018 A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 June 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 22 June 2018 AFlash PMIs
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.