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Friday January 30, 2009 - 15:00:21 GMT
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ChartView: Commodity road to 2001?

Key News
• Japanese industrial production fell a larger-than-expected 9.6 per cent and unemployment rose sharply to 4.4 per cent in December, highlighting the rapid deterioration in economic activity in the face of fading global demand. (FT)
• Eurozone inflation has tumbled to its lowest for almost 10 years as a result of sharp falls in oil prices and the rapid contraction in economic output. (FT)
• US gross domestic product contracted at a 3.8 percent annual pace from October through December, the most since 1982, the Commerce Department said today in Washington.

Key Reports Due (WSJ):
8:30 a.m. 4Q Advance GDP: Previous: -0.5%.
8:30 a.m. 4Q Employment Cost Index: Previous: +0.7%.
9:45 a.m. Jan Chicago PMI: Previous: 34.1.
10:00 a.m. End-Jan Reuters/U Mich Sentiment Index: Previous: 60.1.

"Time's glory is to calm contending kings,
To unmask falsehood and bring truth to light."

William Shakespeare

FX Trading – ChartView: Commodity road to 2001?

Just maybe the market is catching on to the potential problems facing the commodity currencies—China.  The Reserve Bank of New Zealand made it very clear by its statement and recent 150 basis point cut that this crisis is intensifying.  RBNZ Governor Ballard said at a recent conference: “The global recession is also now affecting us through trade channels and a slump in world commodity prices."  Kiwi surged to a fresh new 5-year low against the US dollar yesterday, and continues to get whacked this morning.


(Chart unavailable in text format.)

And Kiwi’s neighboring comdol—the Aussie—is following in hot pursuit for the market seems to now be pricing in the potential for 100+ rate cut at the next meeting on February 6th:


(Chart unavailable in text format.)

…as we continue to suspect all roads lead to 2001 in the world of commodities….

Commodities Index Weekly:


(Chart unavailable in text format.)


…and commodities are a big driver of the Emerging Stock Markets; a place where we are expecting yet another significant leg downward as liquidity continues to drain out despite the efforts of many governments.  And interestingly the euro seems to be tracking quite nicely with the Emerging Stock Market Index as you can see next page…


(Chart unavailable in text format.)

These charts are only charts—history.  All may be soon reversed for reasons we don’t presently foresee as plausible.  Our primary view is for risk aversion to be sustained and likely intensify again on emerging market defaults. 

If that story proves correct, the US dollar index can continue to fly a lot farther and faster:


(Chart unavailable in text format.)

…but of course we can’t forget what’s happening to gold.  We said before if gold soars our dollar call is likely all wet.  Maybe that statement is all wet, as the dollar is sharply higher today AGAIN along with gold.  Hmmmm…..


(Chart unavailable in text format.)

Maybe this new correlation has something to do with the bonds.  There is rising fear about bonds as the US government treats them like toilet paper:


(Chart unavailable in text format.)

However, short-term paper prices still holding up okay, which might suggest traders aren’t running out of the dollar despite their bond concerns at the moment.


(Chart unavailable in text format.)

A three dimensional puzzle it continues to be.  Unfortunately we can only draw our charts in two of them. 

Have a great weekend.

Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital LLC


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