- Equities: Ryan Air [RYA.UK] Reported Q3 Net loss â‚¬101.5M v loss â‚¬106.8Me. Quarter
revenues were â‚¬604.5M compared to estimates of â‚¬581.4M. Company doubts it will
make another offer for Aer Lingus. It guided FY pre-exceptional net profit in
range of â‚¬50-80M and saw smaller than previously expected Q4 loss. It noted
that average fares down 20%. Lastly, it saw significant profit next fiscal year
but cannot give precise guidance || VoestAlpin [VOE.AS] Lowers FY outlook and
noted that its EBIT to fall 10% y/y. The company stated that it saw earnings
remaining substantially positive || GDF Suez: [GSZ.FR] Reported 2008 revenues
of â‚¬83.05B versus consensus of â‚¬81.47B. it reaffirmed its EBITDA growth target
of 10% || Sthree [STHR.UK] Announced preliminary results with FY Profit before
taxation Â£56.0M compared to Â£50.3M y/y. Its revenues were Â£631.5M versus
Â£522.7M y/y || Tecnip [TEC.FR] TEC.FR: Technip Subsea 7 Asia Pacific jv to be
dissolved. Companies have agreed to dissolve their joint venture, Technip
Subsea 7 Asia Pacific (TS7), once all its existing projects and tendered work
have been completed || Icap [IAP.UK] Confirmed press speculation that was
looking at a bid for LCH Clearnet || Nordic tankers [NORDIC.DC} Says unable to
pay wages and suppliers; CEO & CFO resigned. || Peugeot [UG.FR] Reportedly
French Gov't seeks co to cooperate with Germany's
BMW - French press || SGL [SGL.GE] Benteler-SGL jv acquired Austria's
- Speakers: French Fin Min Lagarde noted that Dec unemployment figures up by
about 45K. She also noted that both Q4 and Q1 economic growth was negative ||
EU's Almunia stated that European banks will need more recapitalizing. He
commented that a Bad Bank strategy has previously showed good results. Monetary
policy must get ready to return to 'normality'and saw limits to public
borrowing in Eurozone
|| Polish Central Banker Czekaj commented that there was no need to delay Euro
adoption. He stated that interest rate falling around 3.00-3.50% was a
possibility from the current level of 4.25$. he expected inflation to decline
below 2.5% by H2 of 2009 || PM Fillon commented that France would lower 2009
GDP forecast from 0.2% to 0.5% level - French press || UK PM Brown noted that
the global economic slowdown was mpacting every corner of the world He
commented that some $7 Trillion has been pledged to support global banking
system and the upcoming G20 summit in Roma would discuss curbing protectionism
|| Chinese PM Wen Jiabao replied that 'Shoring up' economic confidence was main
priority during his European trip. 'Confidence' was the theme of his visit to Europe.
He noted that Chinese firms would initiate procurement missions in the UK.
Stresses the need for a successful G-20 summit which results in 'concrete
actions.' He called for opposition to protectionism || || Polish Central Banker
Czekaj commented that there was no need to delay Euro adoption. He stated that
interest rate falling around 3.00-3.50% was a possibility from the current
level of 4.25$. he expected inflation to decline below 2.5% by H2 of 2009
- In Currencies: The GBP was broadly weaker in the session with its weakness
attributed to weekend comments from PM Brown that currency intervention to
support the pound was a 'recipe for failure'. Moody's downgrade of Barclays
long term debt by two notches to Aa3 from Aa1 also impacting UK
sentiment. Overall the risk aversion theme returned and both the USD and JPY
related pairs benefited. GBP/USD tested below the 1.4200, off 70 pips|| The
euro was also softer speculation that a report tomorrow would show European
producer prices fell a fifth month, giving the region's central bank more room
to cut interest rates. EUR/USD tested the 1.2710 level before consolidating||
Dealers note that USD/RUB is beyond the Russian central bank's implied target
exchange rate of 36.
- Fixed income: The heaviest snowfall in London
for over 18 years and resulting transport chaos had led to extraordinarily
light volumes in fixed income this morning, with risk aversion the underlying
theme in thin trade. At the time of writing, just over 6k contracts have traded
in March Gilts (31 ticks higher at 117.73) and around 120k contracts in March
Bunds (45 ticks higher at 122.82) More details emerged on the upcoming Spanish
10y new issue, with size expected around â‚¬8B, and pricing of 90 -95bps over
swaps implying a yield of around 4.65% or 140bps over Bunds. Slovakia
sold â‚¬215M 2017's with an average yield of 4.74% or 166pbs over the comparable
German issue. ||China's Premier Wen believes it is important to stabilize the
US Treasuries market
- In Energy: Russian Energy Min stated that the country's Jan Oil production
came in at 9.70M bpd versus 9.66M bpd back in December. He noted that the
exports declined to 4.25M bpd compared with 4.36M bpd in Dec ||
- Credit Crisis: German Fin Min spokesman says no decision made yet regarding banking
law but German Gov't spokesperson Steg noted that intense discussions were
taking place regarding bank takeovers || Irish govt plans a guarantee scheme
for banks' bad debts and reportedly would inject â‚¬4B in each of Bank of
Ireland, Allied Irish Bank ||
*** NOTES ***
- Risk aversion and continued concerns over the health of the global financial;
sector returned in the session. Moody's lowered Barclays long term debt by two
notches. ECB moves towards laying out bad bank rules this week, while US warns
of possible delays in bad bank plans. Sovereign concerns also linger as Fitch
on outlook negative.
- French warned of higher unemployment and the Government is considering
lowering its 2009 GDP view up to -2% from the prior +0.2% to 0.5% range and the
US will reports its Jan payroll data on Friday.
- Looking Ahead:
- 8:00 (BR) Brazil Jan Trade data: deficit of $843M expected versus $2.3B
- 8:30 (US) Dec Personal Income: -0.4% expected v -0.2% prior
- 8:30 (US) Dec Personal Spending: -0.9% expected v -0.6% prior
- 8:30 (US) PCE Core M/M: 0.0% expected v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.7% expected v 1.9%
- 8:30 (US) Jan ISM Manufacturing: 32.5 expected v 32.9 prior
- 8:30 (US) ISM Prices Paid: 18.0 expected v 18.0 prior
-10:00 (US) Dec Construction Spending: -1.2% expected v -0.6% prior
- 7:00 (EC) ECB's Gonzales- Paramo speaks in Barcelona
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