User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday February 2, 2009 - 16:25:17 GMT
FX Solutions -

Share This Story:
| | Email

No Fundamental Change

By the time this downturn is over that number may be the most famous economic indicator of the past generation.  But as diligently as it has been sought it has not yet arrived. In the United States there are no signs that the recession has even reached a bottom, let alone evinced signs of recovery.

The United States housing market, sub-prime, prime, foreclosed and abandoned, continues to fall. New home sales in December at 331,000 were 63% below the level of Jan 2007 and 44% below January 2008.  The backlog of unsold homes at current selling rates rose to 12.9 months. Sales of existing homes gained 6.5% to 4.74 million but much of that rise was due to foreclosed properties. December’s existing sales were 26% lower than January 2007 and 3% lower than January of this year.  Prices on homes that are selling were 15.3% lower in December than a year earlier; in November the year-over-year fall was 13.6%. The December drop is the largest yearly fall in this series which originated in 1968. The Case-Shiller study of 20 metropolitan area home prices reported an 18.2% drop in prices year to year in November; in October the decline had been 18.0%, in September 17.4% in January 11%.  The slump in prices is still accelerating. Housing starts and building permits were both precipitously lower in December and half what they were at the beginning of the year.

Housing is important for two reasons; first, it is the original component of the asset backed debacle.  Most of those questionable assets remain on bank books.  As long as housing prices continue to decline so will the mark to market value of those housing assets.  Until those securities are removed or their values regain better levels bank lending will remain constrained by the potential for further portfolio losses against which they will have to set aside additional capital.  Second and more telling for the future recovery, consumers are on strike.  If the value of their major asset is still falling there is little likelihood that they will return to the stores and dealerships to buy plasma screens and cars. Even if job concerns were not a present and growing danger, adding an additional burden, consumers would be reluctant to spend without at least a bottom in the housing market.

American GDP in the fourth quarter contracted 3.8% annually but that number conceals GDP produced by a buildup in inventories.  Manufacturers may have not reacted quickly enough to the recession and cut sufficient production to keep pace with collapsing purchases.  This overhang of inventory will depress GDP in the first quarter unless there is a pickup in consumption. Without that inventory GDP would have contracted about 5.1%.   Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) were down 3.5% in the fourth quarter, even though retail gasoline and heating oil prices were much lower. The drop in gasoline prices effectively gave consumers a boost in income but spending did not rise in response, it sank. PCE also fell 3.8% in the third quarter. US industrial production has also fallen in six of the last nine months to December.

Payrolls shed an average of 510,000 jobs per month in the last quarter. The unemployment rate is 7.2% and will likely rise to 7.5% on Friday; a year ago it was 5.0%. A 50% increase in twelve months will discourage even the hardiest mall shoppers. Consumer Confidence, the Chicago Purchaser’s Index and the ISM surveys are all at or near all time lows. 

When improvements in statistics do occur the results are still negative. Either the numbers are not quite as bad as expected like fourth quarter GDP or they are small upticks from levels that are overwhelmingly recessionary. Existing home sales registered a 6.5% increase in December but they are still almost a third below their peak.  Even the more than 50% drop in pump prices, about the only positive in the economic picture has not translated into consumer spending. A fall in oil or gas cannot offset fear of or an actual lost job. The shock of $147 oil and $4 at the pump will not wear off easily.  Consumers sensibly assume oil could return to those levels.

The purpose of this recitation is not to depress readers but to remind that even with markets eager to speculate on recovery they will not do so without evidence. As Alfred P. Doolittle’s Eliza’s father might have said ‘We are willing to recover, we are wanting to recover, we are waiting recover’, but even Mr. Doolittle, sunny optimist that he was, would not do so without a sign.  And that sign has not been forthcoming.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105