rebounded during the early US
session after stronger than expected
(but still weak) ISM data. Before that release, risk continued to be sold, and European
equities in the UK
ended down 2%. The US S&P500 opened lower, but clawed back to end roughly
flat. Commodities werenâ€™t convinced by the direction of equities, copper and
gold closing down 2%, oil -1%. US
treasuries responded to the weaker aspects of the data, and Chinaâ€™s
Premier quoted supporting US treasuries in the Financial Times, rallying 8bp.
The US dollar index was little changed.
reached the 0.50 target we had called for last year, dipping as
far as 0.4960, before rebounding to 0.5075. The weaker labour cost report yesterday
would not have deterred sellers in Europe
also made a new 2009 low during Europeâ€™s
morning to 0.6250, Prime Minister Ruddâ€™s indications of a budget deficit for
08/09, and a potential 100bp RBA rate cut today, weighing it down. AUD/NZD
tried to grind higher, but 1.26 was all it could muster, falling back to strong
support at 1.25.
formed a base around 1.27, before rebounding to 1.29. Le Monde reported
Sarkozyâ€™s concerns regarding the cohesion of the Euro area. GBPâ€™s
rebound was the sharpest last night, falling to 1.4050 and powering
up to 1.43. Moodyâ€™s has earlier announced downgrades of Barclays Bank ratings. JPY
bounced between 89 and 90, settling in familiar territory at
ISM factory survey up 2.7 pts to 35.6 in January. The
factory ISM lifted off its December low point in January, consistent with the â€śless
weakâ€ť regional Fed surveys last month (but not the weaker Chicago PMI). Most of
the activity components showed some recovery, except for the employment index.
construction spending down 1.4% in December. Construction
spending fell more steeply at the end of last year as the non-residential component
turned negative. Residential spending continued to fall away sharply.
December personal income and spending figures were
consistent with quarterly data published last week, as was the flat core PCE
deflator, actually down slightly each month through Q4 before rounding.
Euroland factory PMI for January was revised down marginally from
34.5 to 34.4, slightly reducing the size of the January upswing. Thefactory PMI remains at deeply recessionary levels. Also the
factory PMI forthe UK
recovered a little from 34.9 to 35.8 last month but remains deeplyrecessed.
breaking below the 0.50 level wonâ€™t be easy, price action for the next few
sessions likely to see a 0.50 to 0.52 range. The bigger mover today may be
AUD/NZD, which is poised to fall below 1.25, unless the RBA disappoints.
Country Release Last Forecast
3 Feb Aus
Dec Trade Balance AUDbn 1.45 0.10
Announcement 4.25% 3.25%
US Dec Pending
Home Sales â€“4.0% 2.0%
Sales mn annâ€™lsd 10.3 10.2
Eur Dec PPI
%yr 3.3% 2.4%
Retail Sales â€“0.4% 0.5%
UK Jan PMI
Construction 29.3 27.0
4 Feb NZ Dec
External Migration ann. 3,600 4,000
Commodity Prices â€“7.4% â€“
Retail Trade sa 0.4% 5.0%
â€˘ NZ Q4 LCI
and QES Review (2 February)
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (2 February)
â€˘ RBNZ OCR
Review (29 January)
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (27 January)
â€˘ NZ Q4
labour market preview (26 January)
Economic Overview January 2009 (23 January)
â€˘ RBNZ OCR
Preview (22 January)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
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Tue 19 June 2018 A 12:30 US- House Permits/Starts Wed 20 June 2018 A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 June 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 22 June 2018 AFlash PMIs
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