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Wednesday February 4, 2009 - 14:49:14 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Month Ahead Forex Forecast for Frebruary 4, 2009

US Currency Outlook -- Forex Currency Pairs Forex Currency Pairs Forex Forecast of Major Currency Pairs The Global-View.com Month Ahead Currency Outlook is prepared weekly by the trading professionals at GVI Forex. For information on the GVI Forex Service Click Here February 4, 2009 Overview USD- New U.S. government has stumbled a couple of times already. Markets waiting for stimulus and bank bailout plans. USD still trades with stocks (risk aversion plays). Fed remains very aggressive in attacking U.S. problems. U.S. economy continues weak. 1Q09 should be worse than 4Q08. USD tone now mixed, depends on risk assumption posture of markets. JPY- Japan has been hard hit by sluggish demand for exports. Fear of return to deflationary price pattern that plagued Japan over past two decades. Bank of Japan ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Program) with overnight rate target +0.10%. Nikkei correlates closely to USD/JPY. Deleveraging plays favor JPY. Tokyo unhappy with firm JPY. Fiscal year end repatriations (March 31) favor JPY. Click on chart for two year history Europe EUR- ECB behind the curve. It has lost stellar reputation. Monetary policy has room for ease. ECB focused on Germany to detriment of others? Uncertain how economic weakness, e.g. Spain, Ireland & Italy, plays out with no currency devaluation option. EUR vulnerable until deleveraging ends. Click on chart for two year history GBP- U.K. economy in a bad state. Like U.S., financial sector hit hard. Bank of England now aggressively easing. Close to a Quantitative Easing (QE) policy. GBP vulnerable vs. the EUR. CHF- Swiss economy slowing. Swiss National Bank for all practical purposes has cut rates to zero. SNB has threatened intervention (selling CHF) vs. the EUR. CHF should trade weaker vs. the EUR. Commodity Currencies CAD- Misnomer to call CAD a commodity currency, but heavily influenced by energy. Canadian manufacturing economy tied to the U.S. Bank of Canada policy easy at the present time. Inflation back within BOC target range. CAD trading mostly inversely with USD. AUD/NZD- Australia and New Zealand dependent on commodity demand. Demand is down, so both suffer. Both banks have already eased aggressively; additional stimulus in the pipeline. Key inflation measures contained. More than CAD, expect AUD and NZD to trade inversely with the USD. John M. Bland is co-founder and a partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in a forex inter-bank and futures trading arm of ContiCurrency, a subsidiary of the Continental Grain Company in NYC. Prior to that, he was an early member of the Chemical Bank corporate advisory service in NYC, and also worked in international liability management for that bank. John holds an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelor's degree in International Economics from Berkeley.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

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The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

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Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

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The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

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Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

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Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

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Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

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