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Monday January 3, 2005 - 13:53:08 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

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FX Thoughts - Evening - 03/01/05.......1349 GMT

Euro @ 1.3522/25....Watching now

R: 1.3559 / 1.3572-93 / 1.3640
S: 1.3498-82 / 1.3466 / 1.3428-26
It was expected the 1.3466-74 level could be crucial for a rise. But the bounce that was seen from 1.3385 in the morning, broke past these resistances and rose to 1.3575, which is a movement that was totally opposite to that seen in the morning The fact that the Euro has dipped back to 1.3529 after hitting 1.3575 level makes the whole picture a bit complex at the moment.

It would be safer to say at the moment the 1.3575 is a strong resistances and the 1.3474-50 region could be a mildly strong support for the day.

Yen @ 102.62/66....Ranged between 102.30-103.20

R: 102.81 / 103.15-25 / 103.45-66
S: 102.62 / 102.34 / 102.08
Critical Support at 102.30-20. For the next few hours, if the pair rises past 103.15-25 we may see 103.90 today, but chances are lower now than in the morning. On failure to move up to 103.15-25, the pair may test the support 102.30. Possibly the market may be ranged between 102.30-103.20 for the rest of the day.

We’d now rather buy on the dip than into a rise and modify our Order as such.

Buy $25K at 102.40, SL 102.19, TP 103.00

Euro-Yen @ 138.78/83..... Strong supports at 138.50-40

R: 139.21-35 / 139.50-74 / 140.02-20
S: 138.50-40 / 138.30-13 / 137.99
Rose during the day (from 138.42) but the rise was limited to 139.28. Immediate supports and resistances at 138.50-40 and 139.35-50. To enable a move further up the pair needs to stay above 138.50 for the rest of the day and close above 139.00 levels today. We see 138.30-137.95 as very strong structural Supports, and while they hold, the longer term bullish outlook may have to be respected. But, at the same time, the market runs into System Sellers in the 139.15-45 region. So, for the rest of the day, it might be a battle between 138.30-137.95 on the downside and 139.15-45 on the upside. On the resolution of this battle might depend the fate of the Euro-Dollar and Dollar-Yen for the next week or two.

Cable @ 1.9091/96....Selling some
R: 1.9120-25 / 1.9155 / 1.9195 / 1.9215
S: 1.9080 / 1.9003-8980
The Cable is trading below some very critical levels, the first of which is 1.9120-25. We may, with a fair degree of confidence, say that 1.95-96 may have been established as a top for January and the risk is now on the downside, targeting 1.85 and maybe even 1.81. The time frame, of course, is for the whole of this month, if someone is able to hold positions that long. Buy a GBPSUD Put Option might be a decent idea if anyone wants to trade this possibility.

Right now, we don't mind selling on Spot.

Sell GBP 15K at current level, SL 1.9225, TP open

Sell GBP 15K at 1.9155, SL 1.9225, TP open

Swiss @ 1.1429/34.... Looking for 1.1500 if 1.1440-50 breaks

R: 1.1440-50 / 1.1462-79 / 1.1498
S: 1.1390 / 1.1373-50 / 1.1300-1.1281
The pair dipped to 1.1372 as expected after breaching a support at 1.1440. Has bounced back to 1.1432 after it found support at 1.1372 region. Now the uncertainty lies in the pair moving back above 1.1519 today itself, since it has already risen 150 pips( 1.1405-1.1559) in the early morning and then fell 189 pips ( 1.1559-1.1380) later on. The Support turned resistance at 1.1440-50 could be crucial for a rise. If it rises past that level a further rise to 1.1500 and above may be seen. If the resistance holds then the pair may attempt a fall below1.1377.
Keeping out of this pair, no trades.


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