- Equity markets opened under some pressure as the usual culprits fed an
increasingly risk averse environment. Weekly jobless claims spiked above 600K
to the highest level in more than a quarter of a century. The relentless
selling in the large cap US
banks continues sending BofA down another 15% below $4 briefly to levels not
seen since the mid 1980s. Wells Fargo traded off more than 10% as well. Early
stock losses for the second straight session resulted in Treasury market bids.
The 10-year note has traded up roughly half a point for much of the morning
sending the yield back below 2.90%. March crude traded below $40 once again
early in the session before recouping most of its losses with a rebound in
equity markets. Equity markets in both the US
and Europe snapped back sharply in late NY morning trade
as speculation picked up that the US
government was considering suspending mark to market rules when they unveil
their latest measures. It should be noted that multiple politicians on both
sides of the isle have made statements in the past indicating they were not in
favor of altering the current mark to market landscape.
- Jan same store sales results were as expected dismal, but most of the stocks
are experiencing a relief rally as the results were not worse than anticipated.
WMT +4% TGT +3% ANF +9% AEO +4%
- Shares of Dell are lower after a pre-market downgrade at JP Morgan. JPM also
slashed their outlook for PC shipments for the current year weighing on shares
of IBM and HPQ.
- Credit card behemoths MA and V are charged up after their earnings results
suggested they are weathering the economic storm thus far. MA noted that the
gross dollar volume was up better than 3% y/y in the latest quarter
- The European interest rate decisions came in as expected with the BOE cutting
by 50bps to 1.00% while the ECB paused at the 2.0% level also expected.
- At the ECB press conference; Trichet initial comments were perceived as
'dovish' as he stated that the market turmoil has intensified and reduced
economy activity. The EUR/USD languished below the 1.28 area for most of the NY
morning as Trichet backpedaled on potential rate moves at the March ECB policy
meeting. Trichet commented that the market expectations of 50bps cut could be
accurate in March and that the current 2% level did not mark the floor in the
easing cycle. He did reiterate the drawbacks of zero interest rates and
complemented the point that the risk that one could be overly pessimistic
regarding economic recovery. Protectionism was also cited as a very important
threat. EUR/GBP cross was trading at 0.8730 as GBP also benefited from the HBOS
housing Index uptick from earlier in the session.
- Some risk aversion sentiment remained in the NY morning session (particularly
in financial sector). The IMF's Strauss Kahn noted that he saw the possibility
for a global recovery in 2010, but cautioned that such a scenario was not
certain. IMF cited that lending not improved at the desired speed and that the
implementations of stimulus packages have been 'too much delayed.' The JPY is
softer from its opening levels against the major pairs and the selling was only
exacerbated by the late morning rebound in stocks.
- The Russian Ruble tested its recently imposed ceiling of 41 against the
basket but it did not encounter any significant break of the level. The Russian
Central previously commented that it would use all tools available to maintain
the ceiling including raising interest rates and currency intervention.
- The Mexican Peso was 1% firmer as unconfirmed reports circulated that its
Central bank was again undertaken currency intervention to support MXN.
- The German yield curve maintained its steepening shape with the spread between
the 2-year and 10-year at 194bps, the widest level since late 1997.
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Mon 23 July 2018 A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales Tue 24 July 2018 AFlash PMIs Wed 25 July 2018 A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 26 July 2018 AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless A 12:30 US- Durable Goods Fri 27 July 2018 AA 12:30 US- GDP A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan
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