- Equities: Toyota [TM] Reports Q3 Net loss ofÂ¥164.6B compared to estimates of
loss Â¥195Be. Its Operating Loss Â¥360.5B worse than the loss of Â¥110.4B
forecasted. Q3 revenues came in at Â¥4.80T versus Â¥6.71T y/y. Toyota
again widened its FY loss forecasts for the third time. The company guided
FY08/09 Net loss to Â¥350B compared to its prior view of a profit of Â¥50.0B. It
widened its FY operating loss to Â¥450B from its prior view of a loss of Â¥150B.
It lowered its FY08/09 global vehicle sales target to 7.32M units from 7.54M
prior. Both Moody's and S&P downgraded the corporate bond rating a notch.
|| Syngenta [SYNN.SZ] Reported FY08 Net profit of $1.39B versus analyst
estimates of $1.51B. Revenues were $11.6B and in line with consensus estimates
of $11.58B. For 2009, the company noted that adverse currency effects and the
need for tight risk management could limit growth in the emerging markets. ||
Volvo [VOLVB.SW] Reported Q4 Net loss of SEK1.36B versus a loss of SEK65M. Its
Op loss came in at SEK999M worse than loss of SEK765Mexpected. Revenues were
SEK77B slightly above estimates of SEK74.5B. It proposed a dividend of SEK2/shr
and noted that its liquidity position remained strong || BMW [BMW.GE] Reported
FY08 revenues of â‚¬53.2B compared to consensus estimates of â‚¬53.9B. it also
stated that its FY net profit would be 'clearly positive.' The company did
observe that the overall market worsened again in Q4. Its Jan sales were 70.4K
units, which was down 24% y/y. || Julius Baer [BAER.SZ] Reported FY net profit
CHF852M v CHF863Me; It assets under management (AUM) were at CHF275B compared
to year-ago levels of CHF405B. It noted that half of the CHF27B outflows in its
asset management unit. || Infineon [IFX.GE] Firm did not reiterate its 2009
outlook and commented that visibility was much too low. It continued to remain
in discussions with lenders over refinancing possibilities || Hermes [RMS.FR]
Reported Q4 Revenues were up1.7% y/y at â‚¬1.77B. It expected FY08 results to be
near 'internal target.'Chairman noted that its FY08 profitability could fall
due to fixed costs and was not expecting a 'fantastic' FY09. it did note that
its global presence helped it respond to downturns
- Speakers: ECB's Trichet reiterated most comments from Thursday press
conference in which interest rates at zero would be 'inappropriate' and that
there were 'drawbacks' associated with such a scenario. He he add that if
interest rates were at zero, there were a number of other instruments that
could be used by the central bank. || ECB's Liikanen reiterated that the ECB
could cut Interest rates at its March policy meeting. He commented that the ECB
is 'of course' afraid of situation in banks but added the financial market
crisis cannot weaken the Euro currency. He stressed both price stability and
financial stability are vital and that different countries have different
situations. || ECB's Wellink reiterated that uncertainty in financial markets
is still 'unusually' elevated|| : French Trade Min commented that a weaker Euro
currency and lower oil prices will to help the country's 2009 trade outlook
- In Currencies: The USD was mixed in the European session ahead of the US
payroll data. The GBP was broadly firmer at its tested 1.4770 level against the
USD at 0.8662 versus the Euro. Dealers noted some good buying from a UK
clearer and far east names. Chatter of GBP buy stops building above the 1.4815
level. The EUR/USD consolidated abve the 1.28 level. Dealers are focused to see
if the 1.2720 level holds in the aftermath of the US
data and move toward that alleged 1.23 option barrier. The JPY maintaining a
softer tone against the majors with USD/JPY holding above the 91 level through
out the European morning. Commodity currencies are mixed as oil and gold move
in different gears between demand destruction and safe-haven flows. Spot gold
has critical resistance at the $930/oz level. || ABN Amro analyst comments on
- ECB stance is net bearish for EUR/GBP with 0.85 as a reasonable price target.
Euro in danger of a 'broad underperformance'
- Fixed income: Trade in fixed income has come been relatively muted this
morning ahead of January non farm payrolls and unemployment reports. Bunds,
Gilts and UST have all made gains, with no discernible change to the shapes of
yield curves. In an interesting development for corporates, BNP Paribas
announced plans to tap markets with a â‚¬15B covered bond issue in the works.
- In Energy: Repsol [REP.SP] Consortium reported large oil discovery in the
Gulf of Mexico ||
- Credit Crisis: Turkish Banking Regulator commented that Non-Performing loan
could rise towards 3.7% and that Credit card bad debt around 7%
*** NOTES ***
- The session is all about payrolls and some chatter pondering if the loss in
jobs could top the million mark. Markets are prepared for a poor jobs number.
- Toyota widened its FY operating
loss and cut its unit sales outlook. The company also endured two ratings
downgrades (Moodys and S&P)
- ECB lending survey noted that European banks are expecting to tighten credit
standards for companies less aggressively in the Q1. Volkswagen saw its
deliveries fell about 20% in Jan as tight credit and an economic recession
- Looking Ahead:
-7:00 (CA) Canadian Jan Unemployment Rate: 6.8% expected v 6.6% prior
- 7:00 (CA) Net Change in Employment: -40.0k expected v -20.4k prior
- 8:30 (US) Change in Non-Farm Payrolls: -540k expected v -524k prior
- 8:30 (US) Jan Unemployment Rate: 7.5% expected v 7.2% prior
- 8:30 (US) Jan Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: -145k expected v -149k prior
- 8:30 (US) Jan Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.2% expected v 0.3% prior; Y/Y:
3.6% expected v 3.7% prior
- 8:30 (US) Average Weekly hours: 33.3 expected v 33.3 prior
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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