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Friday February 6, 2009 - 11:40:09 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Markets brace for a possible 6 digit loss in US payroll report; ECB Lending Survey says banks to tighten credit less aggressively in Q1

Today 06:02am

European Market Update: Markets brace for a possible 6 digit loss in US payroll report; ECB Lending Survey says banks to tighten credit less aggressively in Q1


- (SZ) Swiss Jan Unemployment Rate: 3.3% v 3.2%e prior; Unemployment Rate sa : 2.9% v 2.9%e

- (FR) France Dec Trade Balance -€2.5B v -€5.7Be

- (HU) Hungarian Dec Preliminary Industrial Output Y/Y:-23.2% v -13.8%e

- (SW) Swedish Jan Budget Balance: -SEK6.1B v -SEK132.6Be

- (CZ) Czech Jan International Reserves: $34.9B v $37.0B prior

- (NO) Norwegian Dec Industrial Production M/M: 0.5% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 3.7% v 0.1% prior

- (EU) ECB Bank Lending Survey: Credit tightened in Q4; Banks sees significant decline in Q1 tightening

- (NO) Industrial Production Manufacturing M/M: -2.4% v -1.5%e; Y/Y: -1.3% v 1.6%e

- (RU) Russian Official Reserve Assets w/e Feb 2nd: $386.9B v $427.1B prior

- (UK) Jan PPI Input M/M: 1.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.0%e

- (UK) Jan PPI Output M/M: 0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.5% v3.4%e

- (UK) PPI Output Core M/M: 0.4% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 4.1% 3.8%e

- (UK) Dec Industrial Production M/M: -1.7% v-1.2%e; Y/Y:-9.4% v -7.8%e;

- (UK) Dec Manufacturing Production M/M: -2.2% v-1.4%e; Y/Y: -10.2% v-8.5%e; YoY reading was the lowest reading since March, 1981

- (GE) German Dec Industrial Production: M/M: -4.6% v-2.5%e; Y/Y:-12.0% v -9.6%e


- Equities: Toyota [TM] Reports Q3 Net loss of¥164.6B compared to estimates of loss ¥195Be. Its Operating Loss ¥360.5B worse than the loss of ¥110.4B forecasted. Q3 revenues came in at ¥4.80T versus ¥6.71T y/y. Toyota again widened its FY loss forecasts for the third time. The company guided FY08/09 Net loss to ¥350B compared to its prior view of a profit of ¥50.0B. It widened its FY operating loss to ¥450B from its prior view of a loss of ¥150B. It lowered its FY08/09 global vehicle sales target to 7.32M units from 7.54M prior. Both Moody's and S&P downgraded the corporate bond rating a notch. || Syngenta [SYNN.SZ] Reported FY08 Net profit of $1.39B versus analyst estimates of $1.51B. Revenues were $11.6B and in line with consensus estimates of $11.58B. For 2009, the company noted that adverse currency effects and the need for tight risk management could limit growth in the emerging markets. || Volvo [VOLVB.SW] Reported Q4 Net loss of SEK1.36B versus a loss of SEK65M. Its Op loss came in at SEK999M worse than loss of SEK765Mexpected. Revenues were SEK77B slightly above estimates of SEK74.5B. It proposed a dividend of SEK2/shr and noted that its liquidity position remained strong || BMW [BMW.GE] Reported FY08 revenues of €53.2B compared to consensus estimates of €53.9B. it also stated that its FY net profit would be 'clearly positive.' The company did observe that the overall market worsened again in Q4. Its Jan sales were 70.4K units, which was down 24% y/y. || Julius Baer [BAER.SZ] Reported FY net profit CHF852M v CHF863Me; It assets under management (AUM) were at CHF275B compared to year-ago levels of CHF405B. It noted that half of the CHF27B outflows in its asset management unit. || Infineon [IFX.GE] Firm did not reiterate its 2009 outlook and commented that visibility was much too low. It continued to remain in discussions with lenders over refinancing possibilities || Hermes [RMS.FR] Reported Q4 Revenues were up1.7% y/y at €1.77B. It expected FY08 results to be near 'internal target.'Chairman noted that its FY08 profitability could fall due to fixed costs and was not expecting a 'fantastic' FY09. it did note that its global presence helped it respond to downturns

- Speakers: ECB's Trichet reiterated most comments from Thursday press conference in which interest rates at zero would be 'inappropriate' and that there were 'drawbacks' associated with such a scenario. He he add that if interest rates were at zero, there were a number of other instruments that could be used by the central bank. || ECB's Liikanen reiterated that the ECB could cut Interest rates at its March policy meeting. He commented that the ECB is 'of course' afraid of situation in banks but added the financial market crisis cannot weaken the Euro currency. He stressed both price stability and financial stability are vital and that different countries have different situations. || ECB's Wellink reiterated that uncertainty in financial markets is still 'unusually' elevated|| : French Trade Min commented that a weaker Euro currency and lower oil prices will to help the country's 2009 trade outlook

- In Currencies: The USD was mixed in the European session ahead of the US payroll data. The GBP was broadly firmer at its tested 1.4770 level against the USD at 0.8662 versus the Euro. Dealers noted some good buying from a UK clearer and far east names. Chatter of GBP buy stops building above the 1.4815 level. The EUR/USD consolidated abve the 1.28 level. Dealers are focused to see if the 1.2720 level holds in the aftermath of the US data and move toward that alleged 1.23 option barrier. The JPY maintaining a softer tone against the majors with USD/JPY holding above the 91 level through out the European morning. Commodity currencies are mixed as oil and gold move in different gears between demand destruction and safe-haven flows. Spot gold has critical resistance at the $930/oz level. || ABN Amro analyst comments on Euro-Pound cross

- ECB stance is net bearish for EUR/GBP with 0.85 as a reasonable price target. Euro in danger of a 'broad underperformance'

- Fixed income: Trade in fixed income has come been relatively muted this morning ahead of January non farm payrolls and unemployment reports. Bunds, Gilts and UST have all made gains, with no discernible change to the shapes of yield curves. In an interesting development for corporates, BNP Paribas announced plans to tap markets with a €15B covered bond issue in the works.

- In Energy: Repsol [REP.SP] Consortium reported large oil discovery in the Gulf of Mexico ||

- Credit Crisis: Turkish Banking Regulator commented that Non-Performing loan could rise towards 3.7% and that Credit card bad debt around 7%

*** NOTES ***

- The session is all about payrolls and some chatter pondering if the loss in jobs could top the million mark. Markets are prepared for a poor jobs number.

- Toyota widened its FY operating loss and cut its unit sales outlook. The company also endured two ratings downgrades (Moodys and S&P)

- ECB lending survey noted that European banks are expecting to tighten credit standards for companies less aggressively in the Q1. Volkswagen saw its deliveries fell about 20% in Jan as tight credit and an economic recession sapped demand.

- Looking Ahead:

-7:00 (CA) Canadian Jan Unemployment Rate: 6.8% expected v 6.6% prior

- 7:00 (CA) Net Change in Employment: -40.0k expected v -20.4k prior

- 8:30 (US) Change in Non-Farm Payrolls: -540k expected v -524k prior

- 8:30 (US) Jan Unemployment Rate: 7.5% expected v 7.2% prior

- 8:30 (US) Jan Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: -145k expected v -149k prior

- 8:30 (US) Jan Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.2% expected v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 3.6% expected v 3.7% prior

- 8:30 (US) Average Weekly hours: 33.3 expected v 33.3 prior

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