User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Sunday February 8, 2009 - 20:43:48 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Research - Morning Report

Morning Report  Monday 9 February 2009


News and views

Risk-aversion took a back seat on Thursday and Friday on market hopes that the US Congress would pass the US$900 billion stimulus package and bank rescue plan this week. The worst US payrolls report ever only served to increase the likelihood such measures would be implemented. Global stimulus is expected to take traction soon, and money which has been parked in safe havens is starting to be put to work. The S&P500 index duly rose 2.7%, led by a 13.8% rise in the banks’ sub-index. Copper rose 9%, and Baltic Shipping 10%, signs that economic activity is expected to bounce soon. Interest rate markets are now considering the possibility that easing cycles are almost complete, US 10 year treasuries selling off by 8bp to 2.99% (and steepening the 2-10 year curve to 300bp), while Australian 3 year swap rates rose 25bp.

The increase in risk appetite helped NZD rally over 3.5 cents since Thursday’s NZ close, to 0.5365. Note that the thinner liquidity during Friday’s NZ national holiday may have exaggerated the move. Stimulus packages have consistently provided short-term boosts to risk-currencies, and this week’s speculation surrounding the US plans should do likewise.


After the Australian close, the AUD accelerated from 0.6520 to 0.68, in the wake of an earlier RBA report implying the big rate cuts are over. Recent strength in commodities and shipping is another factor here. AUD/NZD stabilised in a higher 1.2650 to 1.2750 range, the divergent central bank views providing a positive tone.


EUR led the charge in risk currencies, moving from 1.2750 to almost 1.30, a large EUR/JPY order from an auto-maker helping. ECB signals it may cut 50bp in March dominated weak German data and fears of Russian credits impairing European bank assets. Thursday’s BoE rate cut of 50bp to 1.00% lingered, helping GBP from 1.46 to 1.48. With IMM JPY longs at very high levels,


USD/JPY was waiting to be squeezed higher, from 90.75 to 92.20. JPY volatility has fallen in the past week, making carry trades more attractive.


US payrolls dive 598k in Jan, and with annual benchmarking revisions unflattering to late 2008 data, it is now the case that jobs are being shed at near a 600k pace in the past few months, whereas prior to this report it was “only” half a million a month. The separate household survey found a staggering 1.2 million job losses in Jan alone, enough to push the jobless rate up to 7.6%, its highest since 1992. However it’s not quite that bad; annual statistical tweaks to the household survey boosted that Jan decline by around 400k leaving a still huge but genuine 800k job loss in place. The Nov to Jan payrolls slump of 1.77mn is unprecedented in the modern era, surpassed only by the 1.97mn soldiers who lost their jobs after the war in late 1945. There were no redeeming features in the report. The job losses were broad-based across most industries. Hourly earnings growth slowed to 0.3% which indicates that it is not just lower-paid workers losing their jobs; for earnings to slow like that, higher paid workers must also be lugging bin-bags of personal possessions home. Hours worked fell a further 0.7%, their fifth straight decline and an early sign that Q1 GDP growth should at least match Q4’s “once in a generation” pace of decline.


German IP down 4.6% in Dec. Yet more evidence that the global trade melt down in Q4 last year is really hitting the German factory sector hard. The December IP fall was the steepest ever recorded for the current series which began in 1991 after the East-West reunification.


More weak UK data from the industrial sector. Producer price inflation kept or resumed falling in January, depending on the measure, with the diving pound in recent months not yet significant enough to offset the impact of plunging materials costs and weak demand. Industrial output fell sharply again, though not quite as steeply as in November, which was revised weaker. There are grounds now to expect a downward revision to Q4 GDP growth, originally reported at –1.5%. Annual IP growth of –9.4% yr is the weakest since 1981.


Canada posted its biggest ever monthly job loss of 129k in Jan since the series began in 1976. There was across the board weakness, with full-time workers, and manufacturing hit especially hard (perhaps exaggerated by temporary autoplant shut-downs).



Given a light data calendar until Friday’s retail sales, the NZD is at the mercy of offshore events. Risk is back, for now, and domestic players will need to adjust positions after holidaying on Friday, which will support NZD on the day. A range of 0.52 to 0.5370 is suggested, with risk to the upside.


Imre Speizer, Senior Market Strategist, NZ, Ph: (04) 470 8266

With contributions from Westpac Economics


Upcoming Events

Date Country Release Last Forecast

9 Feb Aus Jan ANZ Job Ads –9.7% –

Jpn Dec Current Account ¥bn ¥581.2 ¥320.0

Dec Machine Orders %mth –16.2% –8.6%

Jan Eco Watchers Survey Current 15.9 13.3

Eur Feb Sentix Investor Confidence –34.4 –30.0

Ger Dec Current Account €bn 8.6 7.5

Can Jan Housing Starts ‘000 172.2 169.3

10 Feb Aus Jan NAB Business Survey –6 –

RBA Governor Stevens Speech, 19:45 AEDT

US Dec Wholesale Inventories –0.6% –1.0%

Fed Chair Bernanke testimony


Latest Research Papers/Publications

• NZ Q4 HLFS Review (5 February)

• NZ Q4 LCI and QES Review (2 February)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (2 February)

• RBNZ OCR Review (29 January)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (27 January)

• NZ Q4 labour market preview (26 January)

These papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac

Institutional Bank’s website (




Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.



Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105