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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Russian Central Bank raises some lending rates to maintain a stable currency & fight inflation

Today 05:56am

European Market Update: Russian Central Bank raises some lending rates to maintain a stable currency & fight inflation


*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (RU) Russia Central Bank raises several lending rate to combat i

- (GE) German Dec Trade Balance: €6.9B v €8.2Be; Current Account: €12.3B v €7.5Be

- (GE) German Dec Imports: -4.1% v -3.9%e; Exports: -3.7% v -4.0%e 

- (FR) Bank of France Bus Sentiment: 70 v 68e 

- (CZ) Czech Jan Unemployment Rate: 6.8% v 6.4%e 

- (CZ) Czech Jan CPI M/M: 1.5% v 1.1%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v1.7%e

- (HU) Hungarian Dec Preliminary Trade Balance: -€76.3M v -€115Me

- (DE) Danish Dec Current Account: DKK1.3B v DKK7.5B prior 

- (DE) Danish Dec Trade Balance X Ship: DKK1.8B v DKK1.9Be 

- (EU) Feb Sentix Investor Confidence: -36.1 v -31.5e 



*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- Equities: Barclays [BARC.UK] Reported FY net £4.38B compared to consensus estimates of £3.53B. Its, pretax was £6.1B compared to year-ago levels of £7.1B.. Net interest income £11.5B v £10.6B estimates. The board prosed that it not declare a final dividend for FY08 || Imtech [IM.NV] Awarded order from Berlin-Schonefeld airport expansion valued at "dozen of millions of Euros" || Vodafone [VOD.UK] Confirmed pact with Hutchison to merge Australian telecom operations. Both Vodafone and HTAL will have an equal ownership of 50% in the joint venture, which will be renamed VHA Pty Limited ("VHA").VHA will market its products and services under the Vodafone brand, but will retain exclusive rights to use the 3 brand in Australia during a transition period and thereafter. || Carillion [CLLN.UK] Awarded a seven year, £80M contract for maintenance of the East London Line for Transport for London || Hammerson [HMSO.UK] Reports FY pretax loss £1.6B v profit of £110.4M y/y; It announced 7 for 5 rights issue to raise net proceeds of £584.2M || Nothumbrain [NWG.UK] Issued an Interim Management Statement in which it saw H2 revenues lower than H1. It now expected H2 Revenues to be down 1%. It did note that , in all other respects, trading has been in line with expectations. It forecasted energy costs in line with expectations at approx £39M || Bayer [BAY.GE] Commenced Phase III Study Of Riociguat For Pulmonary Hypertension. The first result of Phase III study expected 2011. The company forecasted Riociguat sales potential of €500M to €1B range || UPM-Kymmene [UPM1V.FH] To temporarily lay off all Kaukas Personnel for over 90 days citing additional weakness in plywood market || Yara [YAR.NO] Announced signing of fertilzer joint venture with National Oil Corporation of Libya (NOC) and Libyan Investment Authority (LIA). Yara, NOC and LIA will have ownership shares in the new company of 50%, 25% and 25% respectively. || Bauer [B5A.GE] CEO commented that the company would end 2008 slightly better than prior guidance an saw 2009 as 'reasonable' but with slower growth || Gas Natural [GAS.SP] GDF Suez stated that it remained undecided regarding capital hike in firm || Wincorp Nixdorf [WIN.GE] Spokesperson stated that they would not comment on market rumors of a potential profit warning || Kalahari Minerals [KAH.UK] CEO stated that the firm was in talks with potential JV partners for lead, zinc, copper development and saw a possibility of extract resources deal || AstraZeneca [AZN.UK] Licensed Antidepressant Compounds Discovered by Mayo Clinic and Virginia Tech Collaboration. Financial terms not disclosed. It also received two new anacand dosage approval plus dosage strength from EU



- Speakers: BOJ's Momma stated that he expected a large contraction in Japan's Q4 GDP with no light at the end of the tunnel. Must watch negative feedback of stock market declines and added that both Japanese and Asian economies are worsening faster than previously thought. The conditions for small businesses becoming more severe coupled with capital spending to decline significantly || MOF Sugimoto commented thet he expected the upcoming G7 to discuss steps to deal with slowing global economy || UK PM Brown noted that fiscal policy was essential as monetary policy is impaired. He noted that lending must be increased in a radical way and was looking at both non-banks and banks to increase lending || China Commerce Minister commented that he hoped India would curb use of trade remedies and added that such occurrences; could have serious implications || German Gov't advisor Ruerup commented that the: ECB should cut interestrates further. He did note that the economy should recover in H2 of 2009 || Polish Dep Fin Min Kotecki commented that the Zloty currency rate was suitable rate for possible Euro peg. He noted that discussions with with ECB, EU Commission will begin later in February. Lastly he noted that the current Polish Zloty currency rate was favorable for Polish economy || Australian Treasury Sec Swan: Govt may sell assets to reduce its debt || 



- In Currencies: Risk aversion was a bit more prevalent in the later part of the Asian session after the US delayed the announcement of its financial-rescue plan by a day. However, European equity markets managed to keep a steady tone. The EUR/USD held above the 1.29 leve for the majority of the session aided by the Russian Central bank raising various lending rates. The Ruble was below the imposed ceiling of 41 prior to the Russian Central bank (CBR). The CBR has previously indicated that it would take steps to ensure the basket ceiling was maintained. The EUR/USD pair seen consolidating with dealers taking note the parameters of 1.2720 to 1.3020 range eyed. || Former BOJ official Hirano commented that intervention would likely remain an option on excessive currency swings. However, he noted that FX would not be a major topic of talks at the FinMin meeting in Rome later this week. Bank of Tokyo Analyst commented on the JPY in which the US debt issuance could undermine JPY currency. The analyst noted that that Japanese Yen to remain on defensive this week with recent long JPY positions being pared. USD/JPY at 91.60, off its session highs seen in Asia at 92.10; EUR/JPY at 118.50 in the middle of its 117 to 119.60 range. 



- Fixed income: With the market awaiting details of the US bank rescue plan tomorrow and a flood of US, UK and Euro-zone supply expected later in the week, volumes in fixed income have been exceptionally thin this morning. The German 2-10y yield spread touched its steepest level in over a decade in early trade, breaking though 200bps for the first time since July 1997. Greece has launched a new 3year bond via syndicate, with pricing indicated around 260bps over the comparable German issue. A Kremlin aide also revealed that Russia is considering issuing USD denominated bonds to help funds its rapidly expanding deficit, now expected to exceed 6% of GDP in 2009



- In Energy: OPEC Sec Gen El-Badri reiterated there will be no summit before official previously scheduled March 15 meeting || AE Oil Min: Recession to impact Mid East oil project capex; No light at the end of the financial economic turmoil seen. Current oil prices are 50% below the level that would generate needed investments || Russian Energy Min: Sakhalin facility to produce 6M tons of LNG in 2009 with first shipment seen by at end of March. 



- Credit Crisis: The Obama administration to delay until Tuesday the announcement of its bank rescue plan. The announcement had been expected on Monday. According to a report, the delay is so that the administration could work with the Senate on Monday on the economic stimulus bill. || Norwegian Govt unveiled banking aid package and would establish two funds with approx NOK 100B. The efforts are designed to assist lending, will provide capital for financially sound banks and could include provisions to limit executive compensation || Ireland's government is expected to this week announce a new €7B bank rescue plan for Allied Irish and Bank of Ireland || According to the IMF's Strauss-Kahn, the IMF may run out of funds to deal with the economic crisis within 6 months



*** NOTES ***

- Dealers and traders noting that the week was off to a slow start with little in terms of key economic releases leading up to Friday's G7 meeting in Rome and awaiting details of the US financial market rescue plans. 

- Looking Ahead: 

- 8:15 (CA) Canadian Jan Housing Starts: 165k expected; Prior: 172.2k

 

Euro Macro sector headlines

o                                                        Today 05:45am

(RU) Update: Russia considering issuing USD denominated bonds - Moscow Times- Funds would help cover deficit which is now expected to exceed 6% of GDP or 2.5T Rubles

o                                                        Today 05:39am

(RU) Russian Energy Min: Sakhalin facility to produce 6M tons of LNG in 2009- Seeing first shipment at end of March, 2009

o                                                        Today 05:18am

(RO) Romanian Central Banker Isarescu: A long from the EU 'would not hurt'

o                                                        Today 05:13am

(GE) Resigning German Econ Chief Gloss to be replaced by Guttenberg- Zu Guttenberg -- at 37 a rising star in German politics -- is secretary-general of the Christian Social Union, the Bavarian sister more...

o                                                        Today 05:05am

*EURIBOR FIXINGS FOR MON FEB 9TH- 1m: 1.68% v 1.69% prior - 3m: 2.01% v 2.02% prior - lowest since Q2 2004 - 6m: 2.09% v 2.11% prior

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