US Treasuryâ€™s bank rescue package held sentiment up for anotherday. Treasury Secretary Geithner
will announce the details at , quellingthe mediaâ€™s
enthusiastic speculation regarding its contents. Also lending supportto the
risk-lovers, Chinese bank lending in January jumped to the equivalent of30% of total
2008 total. The recent bounce in Chinese activity partly explainsthe basing
action in commodities. WTI oil is up 1%, and Baltic Shipping is +10%,although
copper consolidated near the session end to be -1%. The S&P500 isroughly
unchanged as we write, banks outperforming to be +2%. Safe havenassets such
as gold (-2%) and US treasuries (+4bp to 3.04%) continued to seeoutflows, as
did the US dollar.
hefty Japanese selling during yesterdayâ€™s domestic session, NZD broke
upwards through the 0.5370 resistance level, in this phase of globalconfidence,
and renewed appetite for carry currencies. It reached the 0.5450area, before
pulling back towards the old resistance.
bought from Europeâ€™s open, and reached 0.6850 before resting around
0.6780. AUD/NZD weakened from 1.2750 to 1.2550, and looks soft while risk
appetite remains firm.
Europe took the EUR higher, from
1.29 to 1.31, a smaller-than-expected German trade balance the only notable
data release. Barclays bank beat profit expectations, helping GBP from 1.47 to
1.50. USD/JPY stayed within its two day range of 91 to 92.
Dec core machinery orders slipped 1.7%mth, somewhat smaller than median
projection for -8.6%, after plunging 16.2%mth in Nov. The decline in the annual
pace moderated to -26.8%yr from -27.7%yr in Nov, the steepest annual drop in 10
years. More spectacularly, foreign orders rebounded an unexpected 27.6%mth,
drawing the annual decline back to -29.4%yr from -44%yr.
December current account surplus slipped to Â¥125bn from Â¥581bn. This
included a trade deficit of â€“Â¥198bn, in line with the merchandise trade data,along with
ongoing deficits in services and transfer. A Â¥724bn income surpluswas more
than responsible for the overall current account surplus, yet do notethat income has
fallen 28%yr. December data showed exports were hit by theglobal
downturn â€“35.1%yr, with imports â€“21.2%yr.
trade surplus fell to â‚¬6.9bn in December. Exports fell another 3.7%
following a 10.8% plunge in November, while imports fell by 4.1%, likely a
reflection of lower energy prices that month. Germany is one of
the more export-oriented economies in Europe, and in the
current financial crisis, surplus countries are proving to be just as
vulnerable as deficit ones.
Sentix investor confidence index fell from -34.4 to -36.1 in February. The current
conditions index plunged to a record low of -52.25.However,
expectations recorded their third straight monthly gain, from -31.5to
NZD now becomes 0.5370, and it appears headed for 0.55. While the risk climate
remains positive, the currency will only track higher.
Speizer, Senior Market Strategist, NZ, Ph: (04) 470 8266
contributions from Westpac Economics
Release Last Forecast
NZ Jan REINZ
House Prices %yr (due 10-17th) â€“4.8% â€“
Aus Jan NAB
Business Survey â€“6 â€“
Stevens Speech, AEDT
Wholesale Inventories â€“0.6% â€“1.0%
Economics Optimism 45.4 42.0
Consumer Confidence Household 26.2 25.2
UK Jan BRC
Retail Survey %yr â€“3.3% â€“
House Price Survey net bal % â€“73% â€“70.0%
Trade Â£bn â€“8.3 â€“8.1
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (9 February)
â€¢ NZ Q4 HLFS
Review (5 February)
â€¢ NZ Q4 LCI
and QES Review (2 February)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (2 February)
â€¢ RBNZ OCR
Review (29 January)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (27 January)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
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