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Forex Blog - European market Update: European market Update: Wrath of global slowdown takes center stage: IEA lowers Global oil demand (again); BOE says UK in "Deep Recession"; Sweden's Riksbank cuts

Today 06:11am

European market Update: European market Update: Wrath of global slowdown takes center stage: IEA lowers Global oil demand (again); BOE says UK in "Deep Recession"; Sweden's Riksbank cuts interest rates aggressively (again)

 

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (SW) Swedish Riksbank cut interest rates by 100bps to 1.00%; more than the 50bps expected 

- IEA Cuts 2009 Global demand forecast by additional 570K bpd as global recession worsens. 2009 world oil demand forecast to 84.7M bpd v 85.3M bpd prior; supply seen down by 520K bpd to 85.2M bpd

- (UK) Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report: UK is in “Deep Recession”; growth risks “heavily weighted” to the downside

- (GE) German Jan Final CPI: M/M: -0.5% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.9%e 

- (GE) German Jan Final CPI EU- Harmonized: -0.6% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.9%e

- (FR) French Dec Current Account: -€1.2B v €4.5B prior

- (CZ) Czech Dec Industrial output Y/Y: -14.6% v -11.1%e; Y/Y: Industrial Sales Y/Y: -13.7% v -18.5% prior

- (SW) Swedish AMV Unemployment Rate: 4.5% v 4.3%e

- (UK) Jan Claimant Count Rate: 3.8% v 3.8%e; Jobless Claims Change: 73.8K v 89.0Ke

- (UK) Dec Avg Earning (Inc Bonus) 3M/Y: 3.2% v 3.0%e; Avg Earnings (ex bonus) 3M/Y: 3.6% v 3.6%e

- (UK) Dec ILO Unemployment Rate: 6.3% v 6.3%e

- (UK) Dec Manufacturing Wage Cost: 6.3 % v 4.2% prior



*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- Equities: | Credit Suisse [CSGN.SZ] Reported Q4 Net Loss -CHF6.02B worse than consensus estimates for a Net Loss of CHF2.4Be. For the year 2008 the form reported a net Loss of CHF8.2B worse than consensus of a net Loss of CHF5.3Be. It reduced dividend to CHF0.1/shr from CHF 2.5/shr prior. Its Tier 1 Ratio 13.3% v 10.4% Q/Q. Credit Suisse noted that Q4 investment Banking write downs CHF3.19B. Lastly, it commented that it has started 2009 on a strong note with all business units profitable in year to date || Publicis Groupe [PUB.FR] Reported Q4 Rev €1.37B v €1.30B y/y || Arcelor Mittal [MT.NV] Reported Q4 Net loss of$2.63B worse than the expected profit of $1.1Be. Revenues were $22.1B and were above $19.9B estimates. It reduced its annual dividend to $0.75/shr || Telenor [TEL.NO] Reported Q4 Net profit NOK2.2B below estimates of NOK3.11Be. Sales were NOK29.9B and better than the NOK25.27B estimates. Its Q4 mobile subscriber additions were 5.5M and total subscribers are 164M. It noted that Q3 trends continued into Q4 || ING [INGA.NV] Closed sale of Taiwanese Life Insurance Business to Fubon Financial Holding for $600M || Peugeot [UG.FR] Reports 2008 Net Loss -€343M v Profit €176Me, Rev €54.4B v €58.0Be. Expects free cash flow to be negative in 2009. Predicted loss in 2009 || Galapagos [GLPG.BE] Awarded €837K grant from Flemish govt to accelerate drug discovery. Galapagos will clarify the structure of novel drug targets and related small molecules in its bone & joint disease portfolio. || Legrand [LR.FR] Reported FY08 Net €349.9M roughly in line with consensus of €347.1M. Revenues were €4.2B compared to estimates of €4.23B. It Expected FY09 adj operating margin to be in a range of 14-16% || Hennes & Mauritz [HMB.SW] Names Karl-Johan Presson new CEO, effective July 1, 2009 || SSA Svenskt [SSABA.SW] Reported Q4 Net profit of SEK932M above SEK558M estimates. Revenues were SEK13.06B better than the SEK11.5B forecast. It saw Q1 demand falling, prices under pressure. It Debt to equity ratio rose to 48% due to USD/SEK exchange rate fluctuations. || Vesta Wind Systems [VWS.DC] Reported Q4 Net €316M better than the €242M estimates. Revenues were €2.5B compared to €2.2B consensus. It 2008 revenues were €6.4B versus €5.78B expectations. The firm would not propose 2008 dividend but was maintaining its FY09 Profit margin outlook. It guided Guides FY09 Rev at €7.2B versus estimates of €6.66B. and EBIT margin in a range of 11-13%. It noted that growth in vestas' underlying profitability was expected to continue in 2009, however, at a lower rate than realized during the last three years . It noted that it had not seen order cancellations or postponements || Volkswagen [VOW.GE] Reported Jan Group Sales at 485.3K units, which was down 21% y/y || 



- Speakers: BOE's King stated that central bank forecasts imply further easing of interest rates are required. King states that purchase of range of assets are necessary under APF scheme, which includes Gilts . Easing cycle likely to include increase to money supply and would use all available instruments to return CPI to target|| The BOE Inflation report noted that economic growth risks were heavily weighted to the down side and that the UK is enduring a severe economic downturn. Lending to companies still slowing and restoring confidence will take time. The report noted that global trade was contracting rapidly and its policy stimulus will significantly increase demandand turn UK GDP turning positive by late 2009 || German Dep Fin Minister commented that currencies would likely to be discussed at upcoming G7 this Friday but added he did not expect any surprises on that topic. He stated that he saw a good chance of progress on bad bank assets and hedge fund regulation, but would wait for US move on the topic|| ECB's Quaden commented that he was: 'Absolutely ready' to cut ECB key rate under the 2% level. However, he added that there was no rush to go near or close to zero intestes rates. He noted that other ECB members were also ready to cut rate|| ECB's Gonzalez Paramo also commented that the 2% level was not lowest possible rate for ECB. He reiterated that the ECB does 'what is necessary' and never pre-commits to decisions. The drop in short term inflation was expected but would not morph into deflation. Lastly he saw no limits on supply of liquidity || World Bank commented that it would be more difficult for emerging states to 'tap finance'. It saw 2009 foreign direct investment down 30% y/y || Philippine Central Bank stated that its 2009 surplus in its balance of payments (BOP) would likely exceed $500M but under $2B , citing factors due to lower oil prices



- In Currencies: Overall dealers noting that the EUR/USD remain in a range of 1.27 to 1.31 despite the volatility in Tuesday's price action and is basically right back in the middle of it all. || The GBP recovered from session lows after its UK claimant data came in a bit better than expectations. GBP/USD tested below 1.4400 before retracing towards 1.45 in the hour after the data release. The EUR/GBP cross briefly tested back above the 0.90 level for the first time since feb 4th before retreating to 0.8940 area. However, the UK inflation report took GBP on another leg lower as comments that a severe recession was gripping the UK. GBP entering the NY morning on its lows against the major pairs. || the SEK was weaker after the larger-than-expected interest rate cut from the Riksbank. The 100bps cut to 1.0% level took USD/SEK from 8.22 level to trade above 8.38.|| risk aversion remains prevalent in the near-term for JPY related pairs. USD/JPY holding below the 90 level and EUR/JPY in the mid-116.50 area. || Russia Central Bank sold $40B YTD in its reserves compared to $70B in 2008 ||



- Fixed income: In fixed income, Germany tapped €4.2B of the 3.25% 2019 Bunds with weak results. The auction was covered 1.2 times, compared to an average of 1.5 times over the previous three auctions, with 30% of the initial offering retained by the Bundesbank. Despite this, better buying of the Bund is leading to bull flattening in the German yield curve, with the 2-10y yield spread back to 184bps from the 200bps highs touched last week. The BoE's King the UK central bank would begin buying gilts under its asset purchase facility have sent march Gilts higher by over 100 ticks and into fresh three week highs at 119.50 at the time of writing. In Euro-zone peripherals , Portugal sold €750M 5y bonds in its first auction since its rating was downgraded by S&P. Bid-to-cover came in at 2.0.



- In Energy: - IEA revised its 2009 world oil demand by an additional 570K bpd citing global recessionary concerns highlighted by a IMF report. The IEA cut the forecast to of global demand to 84.7M bpd from 85.3M bpd prior (Jan report). It expected 2009 global oil demand to fall by 1M bpd y/y, which would be the largest annual decline sine 1982 and would put it back at a level last seen back in 2006. The 2009 global oil supply seen down by 520K bpd to 85.2M bpd and noted that its capacity view was lowered due low oil prices and credit crunch. Non-OPEC supply forecast was reduced by 110K bpd to 50.9M bpd. The Jan OPEC crude output fell by 950K bpd to 29M bpd. It stated that OECD Dec oil stocks M/M down 20.1M barrels; Jan seen up 8M barrels. IEA warned that protectionism could impact energy demand



- Credit Crisis: 



*** NOTES ***

China Trade Balance Grows on Record Import Drop as Exports Fall Sharply Again;

- The ECB member are becoming more 'vocal' in expressing that interest rate could fall below the 2.0% by march but reiterated that ZERO rates will not likely occur. 

- The global recession concerns continue to be a very worrying theme after China's trade balance. The 'better' number was comprised of huge drops in both exports and imports. China's Jan exports decline by the most on a percentage basis since the March of 1996 at and the Imports declined by their largest percentage basis ever. European currency dealers hearing stories of rising discontent in the Chinese streets and watching if it escalates into “uprisings”. 

- IEA lowers its 2009 global demand of oil (again) and now sees 2009 global oil demand falling by 1M bpd on a year/year basis. This would be the largest annual decline in demand since 1982. Thus Saudi Oil Min noted that oil revenues are insufficient to balance their 2009 budget. 

- On the equity front, traders are awaiting to see if “Mark-to-market” accounting is “tweak” to fit into President Obama's financial rescue plan. 

- Looking Ahead: 

- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications: No expectations v 8.6% prior

- 8:30 (CA) Canada Dec New Housing Price Index M/M : -0.3% expected, prior: -0.3%

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Dec International Merchandise Trade: C$0.5B expected, prior: C$1.3B 

- 8:30 (US) Dec Trade Balance: -$35.7B expected, prior: -$40.4B

- 10:00 (US) Treasury Sec Geithner speaks on Financial Rescue Plan

 

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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
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