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Monday February 16, 2009 - 11:31:12 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: European sovereign spreads rise on Eastern European concerns; Russian Industrial Production slumps

Today 06:09am

European Market Update: European sovereign spreads rise on Eastern European concerns; Russian Industrial Production slumps


- (SP) Swedish Dec House Transactions: -26.0 % v -35.6% prior

- (SW) Swedish Jan Avg House Prices: SEK1.924M v SEK1.789M prior

- (NO) Norwegian Jan Trade Balance: NOK v NOK28.9Be

- (TU) Turkey Jan Consumer Confidence: 71.6 v 69.9 prior

- (TU) Turkey Nov Unemployment Rate: 12.3% v 10.9% prior, highest since 2005

- (HU) Hungary Dec Final Industrial Output M/M: -15.1% v -14.6% prior; Y/Y: -23.3% v -23.3% prior

- (RU) Russia Industrial Production M/M: -19.9% v 3.8% prior; Y/Y: -16.0% v 12.0%e


- Equities: || Roche [ROG.SZ] Reportedly says Pegasys shows positive results in Hepatitis B patients || Hennes & Mauritz [HMB.SW] Reported Jan SSS -1% v -2.8%e || TNT [TNT.NV] Reported Q4 Net €207M versus expectations of €163Me. , Rev €2.93B v €3.02B consensus. It expected revenues to decline in 2009 as drop mail volumes to fall || Lloyds [LLOY.UK] UK Treasury Timms stated in a BBC interview that the UK was not considering nationalization of Lloyds at this time || Air France [AF.FR] Air France confirmed press speculation that it would postpone taking delivery of new planes by 2-3 years . the company stated that it was not canceling any orders and continued to expect delivery of A380 by the end of 2009

- Speakers: China President Hu stated that the economic crisis was deepening || ECB's Tumpel-Gugerell stated that it encountered a significant economic slump in Q4. However, added that interest rate cuts enacted since since Oct have had a 'positive effect'. Noted that much has changed' since ECB issued 1% forecast for 2010 and noted that the ECB was currently reviewing 2009/10 forecasts || India to end fiscal 2008/09 with revenue deficit of INR2.41T; tax shortfall after steps to counter economic slowdown. Fiscal deficit had risen to 6% of GDP in 2008/09 from a planned 2.5%. || PBoC Advisor Fan: Policies should concentrate on reducing savings rate || Czech Fin Min confirmed economic stimulus package valued around CZK79B or 1.9% of GDP || German Bank Association stated that German GDP to fall 'at least' until summer 2009 noting that indicators suggest a significant drop in Q1 || Japan Fin Min Nakagawa denied that he will step down after meeting || China PBoC Advisor Fan stated that policies should concentrate on reducing savings rate. He noted that falling demand was driving down prices of commodities and that deflation might also hurt earnings of Chinese companies. On the bright side, he observed that falling prices to help increase consumption || Russia Fin Min Kudrin stated that no decision on budget has been made at this time and added that negotiations remained difficult. Looking to cut capex programs like construction || Japan MoF's Sugimoto commented that there were no current plans to seek further economic stimulus measures || German DIW Institute Revised lower its expectations for German GDP data. It now saw Q1 GDP down 1.4% compared to 0.8% contraction. For 2009 it forecasted that GDP would drop 'over' 3% y/y versus its prior view of a 1.1% contraction. ||

- In Currencies: The EUR/USD remained in its 1.27 to 1.31 consolidation range but probed the lower end in the aftermath of the G7 summit. Dealers attribute the softer Euro to weekend press articles of potential sovereign debt defaults and Eastern European woes (See out Credit Crisis section for more details). Eastern European currencies were softer. The Hungarian forint edged down to a new multi-year against the US

dollar after its industrial production data and the Czech Krouna slumped to multi-year lows as well. Dealers noting that a break of 1.27 in EUR/USD sets up for a test of the 1.23 level with some FX chartist noting a potential steeper decline towards the 1.10 area. || The JPY was modestly softer during the European session against the majors with USD/JPY holding below the 92 level and EUR/JPY sustaining gains above the 117 area. || RBA's Ryan: Decline in AUD is entirely appropriate ||

- In fixed income Gilts have broadly tracked UK financial sector equity prices, reversing early weakness and moving into positive territory after a UK Treasury minister stated that nationalization of Lloyd's was not under consideration. This strength has spilled over into Germany with Bund futures touching February highs and approaching the 125 handle seen as a key level of technical resistance by traders. European perhiperal debt markets have come under renewed pressure after weekend reports in UK the press highlighted the challenges facing Ireland and Eastern Europe. The yield on the Spanish 10y is approaching a record high of 130bps over Bunds, the Irish 10y is back through 250bps over Bunds and the Greek 10y back through 290bps over bunds. In supply, Slovakia sold €40B in 2015 floating rate notes with the acution covered 13 times.

- In Energy: IEA's Tanaka commented that oil demand was expected to pick up in 2010 and warned OPEC on further supply cuts. He saw 2010 global oil demand rebounding +1M bpd. He added that a possible supply crunch could occur by 2013 if economy begins recovering in 2010

- Credit Crisis: London Times reported that fears are mounting in which Ireland could default on its national debt. the article noted how the cost of buying insurance against Irish government bonds rose to record highs last Friday and the debt-market investors now rank Ireland as the most troubled economy in Europe. || Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard noted that the failure to save East Europe would lead to a global meltdown. The article noted that Eastern Europe has borrowed $1.7T abroad, of which at least $400B is due to be refinanced in 2009 and commented that up to 60% of Polish mortgages were denominated in CHF. According to the article Russia "has held 36% of its foreign reserves since August defending the Ruble" in what amounts to the largest run on a currency in history ||

*** NOTES ***

- The US market is closed for Presidents' Day. The weekend G7 summit produced no details in the G7 plan to combat global recession. The Chinese President commented that the economic crisis was worsening. The Japanese Q4 annualized GDP came in at -12.7%, the largest contraction since the 1974 oil embargo.

- Looking Ahead:

- US Markets closed for President Day holiday

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Dec Manufacturing Shipments M/M: -5.3% expected v -6.4% prior

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Dec International Securities Transactions: -C$1.4B expected v -C$4.3B prior

- 9:00 (UK) Bank of England's Bean speaks in Birmingham

- 9:40 (US) Fed's Duke speaks in Arizona

- 9:45 (US) ECB's Trichet to speak in Brussels



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