- It remains grim out there this morning, with US
equity indices making fresh multi-month lows. The Dow slipped to nearly just
100 points above the Nov intra-day low. Traders are dumping stocks and headed
for safe havens in the face of the imminent arrival of part two of the US auto
industry bailout, fresh currency fears swirling in Eastern Europe and a highly
negative February Empire Manufacturing number that only serves to remind
everyone how much the real economy has deteriorated. The imminent signing of a
stimulus bill and the failure of the G7 say anything meaningful over the
weekend are failing to serve as any much needed catalysts. March crude is off
nearly $2.50 around $34.70 and EUR/USD is hitting two-month lows, while spot
gold keeps climbing towards $1000. The US
benchmark yield is come off more than 20 basis points from Friday while the
long bond is testing 3.5% once again.
- GM and Chrysler are in the hot seat this morning thanks to today's deadline
for the firms to submit their restructuring plans to the federal government.
Negotiations between the UAW and both companies, as well as Ford (which has
said it will not take government funds), have been hot and heavy. Press reports
from yesterday indicated that the talks were focusing on cutting retiree health
care costs. Interestingly the Detroit Free Press reported that a potential Ford
deal with the UAW may be used as a framework for any eventual Chrysler or GM
deals. The New York Times quoted an administration official as saying that
President Obama was reserving for himself any decision on the viability of GM
and Chrysler and that the administration had not ruled out government-backed
bankruptcy plans. In other auto industry news, Daimler is the latest automaker
to miss analyst estimates in its quarterly results, reporting an unexpected
loss of â‚¬1.53B and cutting its 2008 dividend. GM has plunged 16%, while
Daimler's ADR shares and Ford are both down 7% in early trading.
- Dow component Wal-Mart reported solid fourth-quarter earnings this morning,
coming in a bit ahead of the consensus EPS view. The company's forecasted
earnings ranges for the coming quarter and full year were tilted a bit below
par, however. On the conference call, WMT's CEO said the company's financial
position remains strong, to the point where it will continue making strategic
acquisitions. Generic drugs giant Teva beat earnings estimates as well,
although revenues were slightly below the consensus view. Teva also raised its
dividend and offered a strong earnings forecast for 2009. Shares of WMT are up
nearly 3% mid morning, while shares of TEVA are up more than 4%. Medical device
firm Medtronic missed top- and bottom-line estimates and narrowed its 2009
outlook; investors are shrugging off the lackluster quarterly results and
sending shares of MDT up nearly 8%. Oil services firm Transocean's Q4 results
were a hair under consensus estimates; share of RIG are down 4% but off their
- In currencies, safe haven flows continue to be the main driver this morning
as concern over the exposure of European bank to their Eastern compatriots. The
failure of G7 over the weekend to flesh out its rhetoric with concrete details
has compounded the risk aversion mood. USD, CHF and gold have re-establishing
their safe-haven status over the last 48 hours. EUR/USD is printing new
two-month lows beneath the 1.2580 level. The pair is also under some technical
pressure if 1.2730 cannot be regained and held, with 1.2300 the first measured
move target. In Eastern Europe, Polish PM Tusk commented
would very likely to intervene and sell euros when PLN reaches 5 to EUR.
However, currency dealers are noting that history teaches specifying a â€śline in
the sandâ€ť level is like waving a red flag in front of a charging bull. EUR/PLN
was at 4.92 at the time of writing. Other Eastern European currencies,
including the Czech Krona (CZK) and Hungarian Forint (HUF), are under threat as
well. As is well known at this point, Russia
remain under stress and could add to any potential domino effect. The
carry-related trend has been a factor in this region as Switzerland had become
the world's second biggest source of carry-trade credit after Japan with more
than 80% of all new mortgages in Hungary are in Swiss Francs (CHF), with a
similar pattern emerging in Poland, Croatia and Romania.
- In other currency news, USD/JPY was holding above the 92 level. Dealers noted
good interest in USD calls featuring short expiration dates with 2-week strike
prices up to 94 interest building for 100 strike within a three-month time
period. USD/CAD is holding above the 1.2550 resistance level and testing the
1.2670 area. Weaker energy prices are offsetting firmer metals for sentiment in
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
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Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
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