- Equities: Commerzbank [CBK.GE] Reported Q4 Op Profit loss -ÔéČ378M better than
the loss of ÔéČ845M expected. It net Loss came in at ÔéČ809M compared to ÔéČ851M
consensus. Revenues were ÔéČ977.0B slightly below the ÔéČ1.04B estimates.
Commerzbank expected 2009 to be another difficult year but had a good start in
Jan driven by trading profit and net interest income. It did note that revenues
to be affected by less business activities. It Q4 Provision for loan losses
vame in at ÔéČ638M above estimates of ÔéČ527M. For Q4 it encountered a trading loss
ÔéČ701M. Its 2008 Tier 1 capital ratio was 10.1% || Societe Generale [GLE.FR]
Reported Q4 Net profit of ÔéČ87M below estimates of ÔéČ122M. Revenues were ÔéČ5.5B
above consensus of ÔéČ4.98B. The firm took a ÔéČ300M goodwill impairment for
Russian operations. It noted that the environment would remain challenging as
economic activity was still contracting at start of 2009. it commented that it
entered 2009 with solid capital position; sees moderate growth in 2009 risk
weighted assets || Merck KgAA [MRK.GE] Reported Q4 Net loss of ÔéČ279.5M compared
to consensus estimates of a profit ÔéČ102.3M (after minorities). It revenues were
ÔéČ1.9B slightly better than the ÔéČ1.84B estimates. It noted it
was"Impossible" to provide 2009 forecast || Heineken [HEIA.NV]
Reported FY08 Net profit of ÔéČ1.01B (pre-exceptional) slightly worse than the
ÔéČ1.12B estimates. Revenues were ÔéČ14.32B above ÔéČ14.11B estimates. It remained
cautious on the development of beer consumption and would focus on programs to
reduce capital expenditures, net working capital and sale of non-core assets. CEO
commented that the outlook for Russia
remained 'bleak' and would cut workforce this year. Russian writedown based on
Ruble || ING [INGA.NV] Reported Q4 Net loss ÔéČ3.1B (ex items) better than the
loss of ÔéČ3.43B expected. its FY08 Net loss was ÔéČ171M better than the loss of
ÔéČ750.6M forecasted. It would review portfolio of businesses in coming months
and noted it must reduce complexity of group. Cutting expenses by ÔéČ1B, seeking
to cut balance sheet by 10% from Sep 2008 levels ||Sanofi [SAN.FR] Begin
clinical trials in Thailand
on Dengue vaccine in child subjects || Puma [PUM.GE] Reported Q4 Net ÔéČ8.1M
(incl items) compared to ÔéČ31.3M estimates. Its revenues were ÔéČ561M above
consensus of ÔéČ529M. The Q4 EBIT margin 46.8% versus 51.6% y/y and noted that
its current 2009 order backlog was at ÔéČ1.15B down 5.4% y./y and below estimates
of ÔéČ1.22B. The CEO commented that he did not rule out potential mass workforce
- Speakers: BOE King has asked Chancellor Darling for permission for
quantitative easing ||German Fin Ministry: Cabinet approved draft law which
allows bank nationalizations ECB's Stark commented that the economic stimulus
package to take effect by year-end and expected the economic trend to stabilize
as a result. He reiterated that an exit strategy is needed from deficit
spending in global crisis. Stark commented that another reform of Maastricht
stability pact would hurt Euro-Zone credibility || BOE Minutes: Voted 8 to 1 to
cut interest rates by 50bps to 1.00 at its Feb 5thpolicy meeting and unanimously
agreed to seek power to buy GILTS. It noted that it was crucial that DMO policy
was consistent with actions of the MPC. Buying commercial paper, corporate
bonds via AFP to increase liquidity and likely to purchase a range of assets in
due course. The BOE stated that lower rates might hurt bank profit margins. The
Sterling drop would increase import prices but monetary
policy should not try to stop adjustment. The dissenter was Blanchflower
(again) who sought a 100bps interest rate cut and stated that should reach
lower boundry without delay || Polish Central Banker Skrzypek commented that
the country was 'struggling' to maintain growth above 1% this year (Official
view is 1.7% for 2009). The Zloty was too unstable to peg to euro in ERM at
this time . He added that the Central Bank could limit open market operations
|| Ukrainian PM Tymoshenko expressed confidence that loan tranche discussions
with IMF would restart in coming days and end successfully || EBRD President
Mirow stated he was ÔÇťdeeply concernedÔÇŁ over the econmomic situation Ukraine and
urged Ukraine to agree with IMF on loan program. He commented that the EBRD was
ready to invest up to $1.3B in Ukraine || EU Commission begins disciplinary
budget actions against France, Spain, Greece, Ireland, Latvia and Malta. Calls
on Ireland to
enact additional pension reforms and notes Latvia
confronts substantial external, internal imbalance. Advises Spain
& France to
avoid further deterioration of finances || EU's Almunia stated that public
finance consolidation was necessary in medium term and noted the need to
overcome recession implementation of budget regulations
- In Currencies: Risk aversion will remain high on the agenda for the most
part. The GBP was initially weak in the European morning amid U.K.
rating fears. UK Telegraph article wrote that Britain's
AAA credit rating threatened by scale of bank bail-out. The GBP/USD tested
below 1.41 level before rebounding toward 1.42. The GBP was steadied after BoE
MPC minutes show that quantitative easing operations might start earlier than
previously expected || Eastern Europe and widening EU
spreads to Germany
still the talk on dealing desks. EUR/USD was holding below the 1.26 for most of
the morning. Dealers noting large Apr 1.2000 and Jun 1.1000 Euro put option
being placed. || China
promised to explore more ways in utilizing its FX reserves to benefit its
domestic objectives. || EUR/CHF rebounded from lows of 1.4700 on SNB
intervention fears ||
- Fixed income: In fixed income Euro-zone peripheral debt markets remain under
pressure. The yield on the Austrian 10y widened a record 135pbs over Bunds,
with lingering concerns over the country's exposure to Eastern
Europe. Greek and Spanish 10y issues also widened to record
spreads over the Bund at 305bps and 133bps respectively. Gilts have whipsawed
between gains and losses in a volatile session, with negative sentiment from
press reports stating the UK AAA rating could be under threat mitigated
somewhat by revelations from the BoE on QE. In corporates, Roche announced
plans to issue a 6 part USD denominated offering to help fund its Genentech
- In Energy: Algeria's oil minister noted that an output cut is more likely if
oil prices fall sharply below $40/bbl || Statoil [STL.NO] Scrapped a NOK3.8B
project for the replacement of flowlines in the gas wells of the Troll A
platform. Cited lower natuarl gas prices and rising costs for the decision
- Credit Crisis: UK Telegraph article wrote that Britain's
AAA credit rating threatened by scale of bank bail-out. Article noted that
S&P indicated it might have to revisit the rating in evidence before the
Treasury Select Committee last month. Article noted that under questioning,
Barry Hancock, head of European corporate ratings, said S&P had confirmed
the UK's status
on the assumption that "up to approximately 20% of GDP in the form of bank
assets could be problematic in the future". The annual economic output
running at ┬ú1.40T 20% would equate to ┬ú280B. However, it has since emerged that
the Treasury is preparing to ring-fence about ┬ú400B of "toxic" bank
debt - or 29pc of GDP - to draw a line under the financial crisis. Article
states that a ratings downgrade or a shift to "negative watch" could
be devastating for the Government's planned economic stimulus package.
*** NOTES ***
- Risk aversion remains on the agenda as Eastern Europe and widening EU spreads
remain on the front burner. UK Sovereign downgrade concerns offset by BOE
moving up quantitative easing plans. European equity markets declined for a
third session lower commodity prices dragged down basic-resource companies and
automakers slumped. U.S.
index futures advanced
- Obama mortgage remediation program due and traders noting that US
automaker problems seem to defy solvability.
- Looking Ahead:
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Feb 13th: No expectations v -24.5%
- 8:30 (CA) Dec Wholesale Sales M/M: -2.0% expected v -1.6% prior
- 8:30 (US) Import Price Index M/M: -1.2% expected v -4.2% prior; Y/Y: -11.2%
expected v -9.3% prior
- 8:30 (US) Jan
Housing Starts: 529k expected v 550k prior
- 8:30 (US) Jan
Building Permits: 525k expected v 547k prior
- 9:15 (US) Jan
Industrial Production: -1.5% expected v -2.0% prior
- 9:15 (US)
Capacity Utilization: 72.4% expected v 73.6% prior
- 14:00 (US)
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Tue 31 July 2018 AA JP- Bank of Japan A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence Wed 1 Aug 2018 A Final Mfg PMIs AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls A 15:00 US- EIA Crude AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision Thu 2 Aug 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 3 Aug 2018 A Final Services PMIs AA 12:30 US- Employment A 12:30 US/CA- Trade
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