consolidative evening session, with only residual weakness lingering from the
earlier Euro-zone banking worries. US President
Obamaâ€™s release of the US$275 billion mortgage-assistance plan was countered by
weak US housing data,
leaving most asset classes little changed. The S&P500â€™s session dip to 780,
and failure to rebound above the key 800 level, targets the November low of 740. US
Treasuries weakened on the funding consequences (adding to the US$2 trillion of
new issuance in 2009) of Obamaâ€™s plan.
NZD managed to
hold above the 0.5050 level, reaching around 0.5135 early Europe, in a quiet
session for the currency. Consensus forecasts for New Zealandâ€™s trading
partners were revised lower again, and will weigh on the RBNZ, interest rates,
and the currency.
AUD ranged from
0.6340 to 0.6430, which was surprising given the Moodyâ€™s report saying the
major Australian banksâ€™ ratings may be reassessed in light of the deteriorating
outlook. That negative news was best expressed by AUD/NZD, slipping to the
lower end of the 1.2470 to 1.2570 daily range.
EUR fell a cent
during the European afternoon, from 1.2640, the lack of follow through
attributed to option levels around 1.25 being protected. Apart from a brief dip
to 1.41, the BOE minutes revealing a unanimous vote for future quantitative
easing via gilts purchases, GBP hovered around 1.42 for most of
the session. USD/JPY touched a technical level at 94, as the
Topix banks index almost reached a 25-year low.
housing starts plunge 16.8% in Jan. The recent string of three consecutive 15-16%
monthly declines in housing starts has taken the total decline in starts from
their early 2006 peak to 80% (the permits decline from their late 2005 peak is
77%). The regional data showed only small pockets where activity might be
picking up, such as a 2.5% rise in singles starts in the West (after a
cumulative 31% drop in the prior two months!). Unseasonally poor weather in the
Midwest and northeast may have weighed on starts
industrial production down 1.8% in Jan. The industrial production data showed
yet another steep decline, exactly in line with Westpacâ€™s â€“1.8% forecast, mirroring
those falls seen right across the world in recent months now that global trade
is grinding to a halt. Auto production slumped a massive - wait for it - 23.4%
but there were broad-based declines across most of the industrial spectrum with
the exception of defence and utilities.
industrial survey found much weaker orders and slightly softer expectations for
output and prices over the next quarter in its second survey for 2009. Data
like these imply that Q1 GDP could contract at an even faster pace than Q4â€™s â€“1.5%
(which we expect will itself be revised lower).
minutes to the Bank of Englandâ€™s February meeting, when rates were
cut by 50bp to 1.0%, showed another 8:1 vote with the dissenter, David Blanchflower,
once again voting for a steeper cut (of 100bp to 0.5%). As discussed at length
at last weekâ€™s quarterly BoE press conference, quantitative easing is on the table
(though not necessarily at a zero interest rate): â€śit seemed likely that the
Committee would want to consider a range of asset purchases in due course...
financed by the creation of central bank moneyâ€ť.
The past two
days of ranging between 0.5060 and 0.5140 were preparation for a downside
break, which we should see in the next 24 hours.
Speizer, Senior Market Strategist, NZ, Ph: (04) 470 8266
contributions from Westpac Economics
Release Last Forecast
Motor Vehicle Sales 1.8% â€“0.5%
PPI/Core â€“1.9%/0.2% 0.0%/0.1%
Jobless Claims w/e 21/2 623k 620k
Index 0.3% â€“0.2%
Feb Philadelphia Fed Index â€“24.3
Target Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10%
Nationwide Dept. Store Sales %yr â€“9.4% â€“
UK Jan PSNCR
ÂŁbn 44. 27.7
Supply M4 %yr 16.1% 15.7%
Leading Indicators â€“0.6% â€“0.6%
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (16 February)
â€˘ NZ Q4
Retail Sales Review (13 February)
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (9 February)
â€˘ NZ Q4 HLFS
Review (5 February)
â€˘ NZ Q4 LCI
and QES Review (2 February)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium- Wed --14:15 GMT-- US- Industrial Production
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Wed -- 15:00 GMT-- CA- Bank Of Canada Decision
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.