- Equities: BNP Paribas [BNP.FR] Reported Q4 Net loss of â‚¬1.37B v loss â‚¬838M
expected. The firm cuts its dividend to â‚¬1/shr from â‚¬3.35/shr in 2007. Its 2008
Tier 1 ratio came in at 7.8% compared to 7.6% y/y. It forecasted its Tier 1
ratio to rise to 8.4% after receipt of capital injection from French state. (v
7.6% y/y) || Nestle [NESN.SZ] Reported FY08 Net profit of CHF18B below the
CHF20.2B consensus. It revenues were CHF109.9B slightly below the CHF110.6B
estimates. It saw 2009 Organic Growth at least approaching 5% and improvement
In EBIT margin at constant currencies. It planned to invest around CHF4B in
repurchasing shares|| || Continental [CON.GE] Reported Q4 EBIT â‚¬267.7M versus
â‚¬261.0M consensus. Revenues were â‚¬5.09Be below the â‚¬5.4B forecasts. The firm
noted it would not pay dividend. It Expected markets to decline in a range of
10%-25% in 2009 and has initiated further cost cutting and expects substantial
restructuring. Talks continue with Schaffler and noted it was expected to meet
loan obligations || Reed Elsevier [REL.UK] Reported Preliminary 2008 revenues
of Â£5.33B compared to consensus Â£5.17B. It noted that its term debt maturities
well spaced and that adjusted earnings growth at constant currencies expected
to be positive. It did note a challenging economic environment with its
Business-To-Business markets more impacted || || Tecnip [TEC.FR] Reported Q4
Net profit of â‚¬134M better than the â‚¬99.4M estimates. Revenues were â‚¬1.91B
above consensus of â‚¬1.79B. The firm noted that it had seen significant delays
in non-conventional oil projects coupled with significant delays in US refining
and petrochemical projects || BAE Systems [BA.UK] Reported FY08 Net profit of
Â£1.75B above estimates of Â£1.32B. Its revenues were Â£18.5B also above
expectations of Â£17.9B. It noted that weakness in Sterling FX rates continue
benefit the company. Current order book stood at Â£46.5B compared to year-ago
levels of Â£38.6B and saw further growth in 2009 with strong order book
persisting into 2009 || Swiss Re [RUKN.SZ] Reported FY08 net loss CHF864M
better than the net loss CHF1.02B expected. It cuts its dividend to
CHF0.10/share. Its FY08 premiums earned CHF25.5B compared to CHF31.6B y/y. it
noted that demand for reinsurance products has risen in market || Deutsche post
bank [DPB.GE] Reported FY08 Net loss â‚¬821M slightly better than the loss â‚¬845M
expected. Net Interest Rev â‚¬2.50B above the â‚¬2.33B forecast. It reported Q4
Trading loss â‚¬406M compared to a profit â‚¬24M y/y, Net interest income â‚¬738M v
â‚¬602M y/y || Schneider Electric [SU.FR] Reported FY08 Net profit â‚¬1.68B
slightly below â‚¬1.71B estimates with EBITA at â‚¬2.75B below the â‚¬3.16B
forecasts. Its revenues came in at â‚¬18.31B compared to consensus of â‚¬18.28B. It
proposed raising dividend 5% to â‚¬3.45/share. Guidance for the near term was
difficult as visibility remained low. The company reaffirmed FY09 EBITA margin
view of at least 12% || Man AG [MAN.GE] Reported FY08 Net profit of â‚¬1.25B in
line with â‚¬1.28B estimates. Its operating profit of â‚¬1.73B in line with
forecasts of â‚¬1.72B. Annual revenue was â‚¬14.90B versus â‚¬14.85B estimates. It
saw big decline in 2009 commercial vehicle revenues and return noting that the
2009 Outlook was subject to major uncertainties || Impala Platinum [IMP.SA]
Reported H1 net ZAR5.3B v ZAR4.7B y/y, Sales ZAR16.24B vs. ZAR16.32B y/y - H1
gross platinum production 878K oz (-14.8% y/y), gross refined PGM production
-13% q/q- Does not expect any major recovery in automotive demand, expects the
market to register a small surplus for 2009
- Speakers: BoJ's Shirakawa commented that economic conditions to remain severe
this quarter. Ther was no dissent at today's BOJ decision to leave interest
rates unchanged at 0.10% and that ZERO rates were not discussed. He commented
that lowering overnight rates does not always translate to lower long-term
rates. The BOJ expects CPI to fall in spring as demand weakens. The BOJ's
Corporate bond purchase program could improve market functionality and would
continue to take extraordinary steps as needed. The recent -12.7% Q4 GDP
reading could be revised upwards.|| Japan's government cut its economic
assessment for the fifth straight month. It noted that the Japanese economy was
"Worsening Rapidly" and in a "Severe Situation". The Gov't
also downgraded its views on consumption, exports and the global economy ||
German Chambers of Commerce (DIHK) revised lower its German 2009 GDP to -3.0%
from its November forecast of -0.5% growth. It saw 2009 German exports
contracting by 9.5% y/y, and imports down 5.0% y/y. it did note that the
EUR/USD exchange rate was developing more positively for Euro-Zone exporters ||
Thai Central Bank stated that it could lower its 2009 GDP outlook from current
0% to2% level. It expected the Bah currency to weaken further in 2009 due to
USD strength || German Chemical Association VCI to cut 2009 production outlook
to -3.5% from -1.0% prior forecast . It saw Q4 Production declined by more than
10% q/q, which was the fastest decline in over 30 years. Current capacity
utilization at 75% compared to 82-86% in past years. Lastly it forecasted
industry wide job cuts in 2009 || IMF's Strauss-Kahn reiterated that the
outlook for global economy was 'gloomier' than recent forecasts ||
- In Currencies: The USD was maintaining a softer tone in the session as
dealers note the market was extremely bearish the Euro due to Eastern European
factors. The move by Poland
yesterday to convert EU funds was essentially intervention but not from its
reserves. The EUR/USD was moving towards the 1.27 area on position squaring.
Dealer chatter that a large macro funds closed short Hungarian Forint trades
and Goldman Sachs offseting its CE4 basket trade. Overall, the pressures in
Eastern Europe in particular, and the associated vulnerabilities of Western
European banks, viewed to limit EUR/USD's upside at the 1.2730 area|| The
catalyst for the firmer GBP sentiment in the early part of the European session
attributed to a â€œveiled attack from ECB's Bini-Smaghi in which EU countries
should not allow their currencies to slide in order to gain an economic
advantage|| JPY mixed as dealers note the recent currency weakness
corresponding to the Japan net foreign bond investment up Â¥1435Bin week ended
Feb 14. Japan's government cut its economic assessment for the fifth straight
month || CHF was softer as some concerns over the Swiss bank secrecy reputation
was again tarnished. WSJ reported that UBS would name about 250 account holders
as a result of $780M settlement with IRS ||
- Fixed income: A combination of risk appetite and supply has seen fixed income
exhibit a softer tone in Europe this morning, with short end underperformance
leading to flatter yield curves in both the Eurozone and UK.|| Spain sold â‚¬3.3B
in 7 and 20y Bono's with reasonable results in light of the recent pressure on
Euro-zone perhiperal debt. France
sold â‚¬7.4B in 2,4 and 5y BTAN's and the UK
sold Â£3.25B in 3y Gilts with strong results, the latter pushing Gilt futures
towards their best levels of the morning.
- In Energy: Reportedly most OPEC members are against productions cuts at
coming March meeting but could decide on further 1.6M bpd cut in Q2 of 2009 ||
South Korea's Knowledge Minister: Expects Korea's refiners to export $18.6B
over FY09 v $36.8B y/y || Petroleum Geo-Services [PGS.NO] Reported Q4 Op loss
$27M v loss $15M consensus. Revenues were $462M versus $505M estimate. it
reaffirmed FY09 EBITDA seen at $800-925M compared to $801.9Me ||
*** NOTES ***
- BOJ left its target interest rate at 0.10%, as expected and planned to start
purchasing up to Â¥1T in corporate bonds outright as early as March
- Demand for USD and gold has abated in the session as some pressures recently
exhibited in the Eastern European block has eased a bit. There is speculation
that the EU will devise a plan to assist Eastern European countries to stave
off the fallout from the global economic crisis. The better Norwegian GDP data
and increase in Russian reserves also provided a rational for position unwinding.
- China Central Bank talked down possibility of further rate cuts.
- Looking Ahead:
- 8:00 (PD) Polish Jan Producer Prices M?M:
1.0% expected v -0.5% prior; Y?Y: 2.3% expected v 2.6% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Leading Indicators M/M: -0.7% expected v -0.6% prior
- 8:30 (US) Producer Price Index M/M: 0.3% expected v -1.9% prior; Y/Y: -2.4%
expected v -0.9% prior. PPI Ex- Food & Energy M/M: 0.1% expected v 0.2%
prior; Y?Y: 3.8% expected v 4.3% prior
- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims w/e Feb 14th: 620k expected v 623k prior;
Continuing Claims: 4.83M v 4.81M prior
- 10:00 (US) Jan Leading Indicators: 0.0% expected v 0.3% prior
- 10 :00 (SU) Feb Philadelphia Fed: -25.0 expected v -24.3 prior
- (RU) Russian Gold & Forex Reserves w/e Feb 13: No expectations v $383.5B
- (GR) Greek Dec Current Account: No expectations v -â‚¬3.46B prior
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Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
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