User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday February 19, 2009 - 20:53:10 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Research - Morning Report

Morning Report Friday 20 February 2009

 

News and views

Risk-aversion dipped slightly last night, but broadly remains in a consolidative phase. Global equity indices were unchanged, on average, but bank stocks continued to be sold (-4%), providing a clue regarding the next move in risk. Europe was again in the spotlight - press conference comments from Germany’s Merkel engendering little market confidence that any Euro-zone recovery is afoot, and the Bundesbank reiterating Germany is in severe recession. UK PM Brown said G20 will look at helping Eastern Europe, in a nod to that zone’s impact on the UK and Euro-zone banking sector. Inventory reports drove oil again, up 11% to $38, while copper ignored the growing stockpile data, bouncing 2%. Looming supply remains the main driver in the US treasuries market, the 10 year note

weakening 6bp to 2.82%.

 

NZD followed EUR higher, to 0.5190, but ran out of steam and flopped to 0.51, where it hovers. AUD’s euro-inspired rally reached 0.6520 before resting around 0.6450. AUD/NZD performed to the top of the recent broad range just above 1.26, but shows no signs of sustaining a breakout yet.

 

EUR rose to 1.2760 on stimulus hopes, but faded to 1.2670 on a lack of specifics from Merkel, and ECB comments (Bini Smaghi) that the zone shouldn’t use currency weakness to gain economic advantage. The ECB comments had the opposite effect on GBP, pushing it to 1.4450, but it too could not hold on and sits back at 1.4303. The Japanese Government’s downgrade (for the fifth month in a row) drove USD/JPY higher still, now at 94.40.

 

US Philly Fed slumped from –24 to –41 in Feb, more than reversing its two month upswing around the turn of the year. Orders, shipments and especially jobs were all weaker, pointing to a severe contraction in factory activity in the northeast.

 

US PPI surprised to the upside last month, rising 0.8%, though given that January is the month many firms make annual adjustments to prices, there may be a seasonality issue at play. Excluding food and fuel, the core PPI rose 0.4%. Intermediate and crude prices continued to fall, but less rapidly than in late 2008. Overall, a stronger than expected measure of factory gate prices at the start of the year, but not enough to alter our view that the US economy is entering a significant period of disinflation.

 

US leading index posted a second consecutive gain in January, up 0.4%, due mostly to the money supply component which added 0.5 ppts and interest rates which added 0.2 ppts. These recent positives are telling us that the outlook should be improving - that is, if the economy were to respond “normally” to lower interest rates and expanding money supply. But it clearly isn’t.

 

Initial jobless claims held steady at 627k last week, which coincided with the non-farm payrolls survey week for February. In the same week in January, claims were at 585k. The 4 week moving average for claims rose from 518k to 619k over the same period. Add in the slumping regional business survey jobs picture, and the surge in continuing claims in the prior week, and the case can be made for a payrolls loss of closer to 700k per month than 600k per month.

 

UK money supply M4 expanded at a 17.5% yr pace in January, up from 16.2% yr in December, most likely due to the liquidation of riskier assets outside the M4 definition into cash or deposits captured by M4. Also, the accrued public sector net credit requirement as at the year to January was £20.1bn, up from £8.5bn in the same period last year, neatly illustrating the rapidly deteriorating state of the UK public accounts.

 

Outlook

No change to our view that the NZD is consolidating in a sideways range, except that the range is now slightly wider than yesterday, at 0.5060 to 0.5180. The next move is expected to be a break down towards strong 0.50 support.

 

Imre Speizer, Senior Market Strategist, NZ, Ph: (04) 470 8266

With contributions from Westpac Economics

 

Events Today

Country Release Last Forecast

Aus RBA Governor Stevens

US Jan CPI –0.7% 0.2%

Jan Core CPI 0.0% flat

Jpn Dec All Industry Index –2.3% –2.7%

BoJ Monthly Report

Eur Feb PMI Factory Adv 34.4 34.2

Feb PMI Services Adv 42.2 42.0

UK Jan Retail Sales %yr 4.0% 2.1%

Can Jan CPI %yr 1.2% 1.1%

Jan CPI BoC Core %yr 2.4% 2.2%

 

Latest Research Papers/Publications

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (16 February)

• NZ Q4 Retail Sales Review (13 February)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (9 February)

• NZ Q4 HLFS Review (5 February)

• NZ Q4 LCI and QES Review (2 February)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (2 February)

• RBNZ OCR Review (29 January)

These papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac

Institutional Bank’s website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)

 

 

 

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.




 

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 20 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales


Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Fri-- 12:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI. Top economic indicators.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Fri-- 14:00 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105