messages on US bank nationalisation saw risk being sold and bought back in the
European and US sessions.
Senate banking committee chairman Dodd spoke of the possibility of government
takeovers, while Treasuryâ€™s Baker said a private banking system would be
preserved. US bank shares
are reflecting the former: Citibank fell to $1.95 (they were $55.70 in Dec-06).
The S&P500 dipped to a 754 low, before rebounding to finish down 1%. The
741 level is technically critical, a break below signalling a move into the 600â€™s.
Overall, risk sentiment was weak, witness gold reaching $1006 and US 10yr
treasuries down 6bp.
lower after our domestic session, and made a 0.5010 low, before a sharp rally,
which appeared to be short-covering ahead of the weekend, reaching 0.5155.
AUD started its
rebound from 0.6355, and almost touched 0.65. NZD outperformed during the
rebound, such that the AUD/NZD cross fell from 1.2715 to 1.2560. Queensland state was
downgraded from AAA to AA+ by S&P.
EUR was looking
depressed until Europeâ€™s
afternoon, a rocket-like flight from 1.2650 to 1.2885 ensuing. Many causal
explanations were offered, such as a Der Spiegel article suggesting stronger
Eurozone members may help weaker ones, via Eurozone bond issuance, but the
broad nature of the currency moves (the US dollar was sold against everything,
especially CHF which rose 3.6%) suggests this may have been more a USD story on
the day. USD/JPY was sold from 94.40 to 92.50.
the first time in at least fifty years, the US has
no inflation. The overall Jan price level is exactly the same as it was a year
ago, although of course the mix of prices within the CPI basket is very
different. For example, energy prices are down 20.4% yr compared to January
2008, whereas food prices are 5.3% yr higher and core prices excluding those
components are up 1.7% yr (its slowest since 2004). In January, above trend
price rises for clothing (0.3%), autos (0.2%), medical care (0.4%) and ownersâ€™
equivalent rent (0.3%) were behind the highest monthly core rate of 0.2% since
August, while a 1.7% jump in energy (after five months of declines) pushed the
monthly headline rate back into positive territory at 0.3%. Overall, the main
story is that US inflation
has all but evaporated, even though there was some element of upside surprise
in the latest monthly figure.
dip to new cycle lows. This reflects exceptionally weak news on the real
economy and talk that the banking sector might soon need to reveal a second
swathe of losses, related to loan exposures in emerging markets where economic
growth is now crumbling. The February services PMI was especially weak dwn 3.3
pts to 38.9, the factory PMI was off 0.8 pts to 33.6. According to the official
retail sales volumes have not posted a decline since September, which
contrasts dramatically with the private sector retail surveys which are at or
close to record lows. Last month the Statistician declined to publish a monthly
% change for December sales before of difficulties associated with the VAT cut
and earlier than normal pre-Christmas discounting. This month they have
restored the monthly series (up 0.7% in Jan) but we still question the
credibility of the data, and as such see it as having little sustained impact
on markets or policy-making.
of the past 2 weeks, NZD has fallen from 0.5450 to 0.5010, and then corrected
that move on Friday night, rallying to 0.5155. This week should see the 0.50
area tested for the third time this year, but breaking below it wonâ€™t be easy.
We expect price action to be confined to a 0.50 to 0.52 range during the next
Speizer, Senior Market Strategist, NZ, Ph: (04) 470 8266
contributions from Westpac Economics
Country Release Last Forecast
23 Feb NZ
Jan Credit Card Transactions â€“3.9% â€“
Nationwide House Prices â€“1.3% â€“
24 Feb US Feb
Consumer Confidence 37.7 36.0
Price Index â€“1.8% â€“
Report on Economy & Fed Policy
Minutes for January
Service Price â€“2.5% â€“
Current Account bn â€“16.0 â€“
New Orders â€“4.5% â€“
Ger Feb Ifo
Business Climate 83.0 â€“
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (16 February)
â€¢ NZ Q4
Retail Sales Review (13 February)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (9 February)
â€¢ NZ Q4 HLFS
Review (5 February)
â€¢ NZ Q4 LCI
and QES Review (2 February)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (2 February)
â€¢ RBNZ OCR
Review (29 January)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium- Wed --14:15 GMT-- US- Industrial Production
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Wed -- 15:00 GMT-- CA- Bank Of Canada Decision
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.