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Monday February 23, 2009 - 11:19:15 GMT
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Forex Blog - European market Update: All's quiet on the Western (and European) front...for now

Today 05:58am

European market Update: All's quiet on the Western (and European) front...for now

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (SZ) Swiss Jan Money Supply: 2.8% v 2.4% prior

- (DE) Jan Wholesale Price Index: -1.0% v -2.7% prior; Y/Y: -5.4% v -3.8% prior

- (IT) Italian Jan Final CPI (NIC inc Tobacco) M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.6%e; EU Harmonized: -1.7% v-1.6%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.5%e 



*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- Equities: Bunzl [BNZL.UK] Reported FY08 Net £142.2M slightly below the £149.4M estimates. Its revenues were £4.18B compared to the consensus of £4.1B expected. It has committed funding totaling £1.1B from US private placement and noted that all four business areas showed increased revenues and op profits || European Aeronautic Defence & Space [EAD.FR] French press reporting that the delayed A400M cargo aircraft could be delivered up to 5 years late || Daimler [DAI.GE] German press reports that company has abandoned its mid-term target of 5% Rev growth || AB Foods [ABF.UK] Provided interim statement in which its H1 operating profit to be below prior year, H1 Primark unit LFL sales +5% y/y || Anheuser-Busch InBev [ABI.BE] To sell Labatt USA Inbev unit to KPS Capital partners. The financial terms of the transaction were not disclosed || Merck KgAA [MRK.GE] Makes NOK13.50/shr offer for Medicullt, in a deal valued at NOK383M. Medicult Board recommended shareholders to accept the offer||

- Speakers: ECB's Trichet commented that severe EMU financial strains are impacting the real economy. The financial system woes are preventing an economic recovery. Trichet noted that problems have not limited to financial sector and the decline in credit flows is party driven by partly of demand and supply associated with deleveraging || EU's Almunia commented that he dud not rule out possible assistance for a non-EMU country; doubted any rescue was needed within its current membership. || German Government stated that it did not see any reason to revise 2009 GDP forecast of decline of 2.25% y/y at this time. || ECB Orphanides stated that the ECB could use unconventional measures if needed || ECB's Bini Smaghi commented that the EU might intervene in countries " in difficulty" and that the economic crisis could accelerate for newest EU members. The central bank would provide assistance with of without help from IMF || IMF's Strauss Kahn: Supports the idea of common European bond issue but that such an issue must be aimed at combating economic crisis || Polish Dep Fin Min Kotecki stated that it would prepare a draft of its detailed Euro adoption by April ut noted that Euro adoption road map might be revised. The final decision to be taken by May ||

- In Currencies: The session was marked by an increase in risk appetite on news that the U.S. government might take a larger stake in Citigroup. The European equity markets were up over 1.0% across the board and the JPY-related pairs were higher as a result of the scenario. USD/JPY nearing the mid-94 level and EUR/JPY cross above the 121.20 neighborhood. . || USD/JPY currency pair was approaching the 95.00, which had been a historical pivot point and the former Coordinated intervention point back in 1995. Some dealer chatter pondering if JPY intervention could be duplicated at this time given the price action below the 90 level in Late Jan/Feb period. || EUR/USD opened the European session probing the 1.30 area, but saw its Asian session gains erode as the European morning wore on. The pair tested 1.2820 ahead of the NY morning. EUR/GBP lowers as well by 120 pips to test. 0.8775. European dealers were trying to understand the chaotic price action in USD-related pairs on Friday afternoon. The thin-trading conditions had removed from potential US bullish momentum from the charts and keeps the prior range of 1.2750 to 1.31 intact for the time being. || The CHF continues to be hampered by continued tax haven concerns. The USD/CHF opened the European morning at 1.1470 and the CHF gradually weakened to test 1.16 level. EUR/CHF was moving back above the 1.49 level after testing 1.48 in Asia. 

- Fixed income: Renewed strength in equity markets has sent government bond prices lower in light volumes this morning. Short end underperformance is leading to compression in the UK yield curve , with the yield on the 2y Gilt above 1.55% for the first time in almost 2 weeks, against a backdrop of the BoE's Gilt purchase operation, expected to be finalized in coming weeks. Better selling of longer dated issues in Bunds and UST's has led to bear steepening in those markets. At the time of writing the yield on the 10y Note is 5bps higher in electronic trade at 2.84%, whilst the 10y Bund is up by the same amount at 3.07%.

- In Energy: Petrologistics: OPEC 12 Feb oil output expected at 27.6M v 28.7M in Jan || IEA Tanaka reiterated the view that any additional OPEC output reduction deemed to increase prices poses a risk to global economic recovery. IEA noted that oil prices must remain at current levels would be very important for global recovery . Oil demand seen growing by 1% in 2010 but it might lower oil demand outlook again on economic outlook

- Credit Crisis: Fitch provided comments on Austria's long term ratings. It saw its most important factor in ratings decision being based on level of crisis in Eastern Europe and noted that the situation could become 'nasty' if Eastern Europe were to experience Asian-style crisis ||European G20 statement: EU needs common rules to deal with impaired assets, to extend regulation of overall financial market, asset classes and participants. It sought to subject rating agencies to mandatory registration and oversight. The members agreed that banks should build extra capital buffers during economic upswings. Hedge Funds to be regulated as they pose systematic risk and would crackdown on tax havens, including sanctions. The G20 commented that confidence in financial markets has not yet restored. To support and assist systematically important financial institutions and that Government stimulus measures would tangibly support growth in coming months but added that stimulus must not distort competition


*** NOTES ***

- The Monday session lacked enthusiasm but Equity markets mildly firmer on more of a technical bounce then any response from the weekend preG20 summit in Berlin. The US and global banking system appear to be on the verge of nationalization. 

. European leaders challenged the rest of the world to sign up to tighter market regulation

- Looking Ahead: 

- (GE) German Jan Wholesale Price Index M/M: -2.0% expected v -3.0% prior; Y/Y: -6.3% expected v -3.3% prior

- 8:00 (HU) Hungarian Interest Rate Decision: Consensus expectations are for no change, current Base Rate is 9.50%

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Dec Retail Sales M/M: -2.7% expected v -2.4% prior; Less Autos M/M: -2.0% expected v -2.3% prior

- 8:00 (EU) ECB's Nowotny and Sramko speak in Vienna

- 10:30 (US) Feb Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: -52.5% expected v -50.5% prior

- 10:30 (IS) Israeli Base Rate Announcement: 50bps cut to 0.50% expected, current Base Rate is 1.00%

-12:40 (US) Fed's Lockhart speaks in Orlando

 

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