- Equities: Royal Bank of Scotland [RBS.UK] Reported FY Net loss of Â£24.1B
compared to consensus estimates of a loss of Â£25.9B. Its revenues were Â£21.1B
slightly below expectations of Â£22.7B. It confirmed its intended participation
in HM Treasury's APS scheme. Its FY08 impairment loss was Â£8.1B. Tier 1 capital
ratio 9.9%; Core tier 1 Capital Ratio 7.0% (guided FY08 Group tier 1 ratio at
6.9-7.4% on 1/19). It would seek to wind down/sell Â£240B in assets over 3-5 years
|| Lloyds [LLOY.UK] Confirmed ongoing talks with UK Treasury over Asset
Protection scheme Dexia [DEXB.BE] Reported Q4 Net Lossof-â‚¬2.6B worse than the
loss ofâ‚¬2.3B forecasted. Its Core Tier 1 Ratio 9.6%. Company stated that its
Net result were impacted by insurance operations and from, Madoff exposure. It
had an additional impairment for U.S. mortgage-backed securities. || UBS [UBSN.SZ] Has
appointed Oswald Gruebel as its new Group CEO, effective immediately || Nicox
[COX/FR] Reported FY08 Net loss â‚¬73.9M worse than the estimates of a loss of
â‚¬70.3M. Revenues were â‚¬3.4M below the â‚¬6.0M estimates. It did note that it
could finance activities until the end of 2010 || Allianz [ALV.GE] Reported FY
Net Loss -â‚¬2.4B compared to a Profit â‚¬1.69B expected. The sale of Dresdner Bank
impacted the net by â‚¬6.2B. It s Op Profit came in at â‚¬7.4B inline with
consensus of â‚¬7.4B. it noted that difficult market to conditions continue in
2009, operating in 'midst of toughest downturn in decades' and cannot provide
reliable profit forecasts for 2009. It noted that it expected an additional
â‚¬400M charge on Dresdner sale || Centrica [CNA.UK] Reported FY08 revenues of
Â£21.34B above the expectations of Â£18.6B.; dividend at 8.73P/share, final
dividend 12.2P/share. It did note that the business climate in 2009 to be very
challenging. Its British gas units to be combined into single retail operations
|| Tognum [TGM.GE] Reported FY08 Net of â‚¬264M in line â‚¬256.4M estimates. Its
EBIT came in at â‚¬407M better than the â‚¬392.7M consensus. The revenues were
â‚¬3.13B slightly below expectations of â‚¬3.15B. It expected 2009 to present firm
with new set of challenges but remained confident of success in the mid term ||
British American Tobacco [BATS.UK] Reported FY08 Op profit Â£3.57B just missing
the Â£3.65B consensus. Revenues were Â£12.12B above the expectations of Â£11.94B.
CEO noted that company remain alerted to the possibilities of down trading. ||
National Express [NEX.UK] Reported FY08 Profit Â£119.7M worse than Â£141.4M
expected. Its continuing revenues of Â£2.77B in line with Â£2.77B expected. It
was cutting dividend a nd noted its normalized op margin was 9.2% compared to
8.1% y/y || Telefonica [TEF.SP] Reported Q4 Net profit â‚¬2.0B above the â‚¬1.8B
expected. Its revenues were â‚¬14.80B slight better than the â‚¬14.67B consensus.
|| Deutsche Post [DPW.GE] Reported FY08 Net Debt â‚¬2.41B; Saw a â‚¬1B additional
cost savings through 2010. It experienced â‚¬2.1B in restructuring costs
regarding changes in DHL US operations. Negotiations with UPS continue, firm
looks at possibility of action with other firms||
- Speakers: BoJ's Noda stated that it did not rule out additional steps to ease
credit market strains. He noted that currency movements needed to stabilize and
that recent swings have been excessive. The BOJ has nothing in mind on its next
policy step as of yet and unsure if can replace overnight call rate with any
other target. The BOJ plans to monitor effectiveness of previous policy steps
and consider effective ways to impact term-fund rate || S&P Report that
Japan could see 'worst recession' since World War II
- S&P expects Japan to suffer real GDP shrinkage of 4.0% in 2009 || Swedish
Riksbank Ingves commented that the central bank balance sheet has tripled since
the start of the crisis. The recent months had required use of "abnormal
policy tools" but reiterated the view that central bank will do whatever
is necessary to assure financial market stability. Sees jobless rate over 9% by
end of 2010 but economic outlook appears better in early part of 2010 but
timing is uncertain. A further interest rate cut is possible and saw interest
rates around 1% over the next year || HM's Treasury Releases Statement on Asset
Protection Scheme in which under the Scheme, in return for a fee, the Treasury
will provide to each participating institution protection against credit losses
incurred on one or more portfolios of defined assets to the extent that credit
losses exceed a "first loss" amount to be borne by the institution.
The Scheme aims to target those assets where there is the greatest amount of
uncertainty about their future performance. || ) Japan Fin Min Yosano:
Instability in USD's value is 'undesirable' || UK Chancellor Darling commented on the previously
announced banking schemeand says it aims to rebuild confidence in system. He
noted that it would provide certainty that banks will continue lending and
added that UK banks must clean up their balance sheets. The
ultimate target was to return RBS or any bank with govt holding back to private
sector || Spain's PM Zapatero comment that government was looking
at additional measures to help the unemployed and increase hiring || Russia's Gov't aide Dvorkovich reiterated 2009 GDP view
of a contraction of2.2%. He saw expects no abrupt change in Ruble currency rate
|| Chinese Regulator: To require banks to further raise provisions against bad
loans and focus on lending to real estate sector || BoE's King commented to the
UK Treasury that the first step wass determine what is on Bank balance sheets,
process will take time, estimating amount of capital needed was impossible.
Notes an "extreme" loss of confidence in Banks and was important for
gov't to support Bank balance sheets
- In Currencies: The USD consolidated in a quiet session that also
characterized the Asian session. The Euro currency was mildly firmer against
the major pairs despite the German GDP which revealed a sharp drop in exports
and cautious comets from former Bundesbank President Pohl (See the Credit
Crisis section). EUR/USD in a 100 pips range since Asia and current at 1.2758 at the middle portion as the NY morning
approaches. The JPY is maintaining a softer tome as it probes the 98 level
against the USD.
- Fixed income: Reportedly China's CBRC has said it will continue US Treasury
purchases if it remains in China's interest
- In Energy: Gazprom [GAZP.RU: Reportedly company warned it will again cut off
gas to Ukraine on March 8 if the country does not pay back $400M of new debts
|| Reportedly, China plans to cut energy use per GDP unit by 18% by 2010
- Credit Crisis: Dealer noting comments from former Bundesbank President Pohl.
He warned that the euro is under serious threat to survive the current crisis.
He believed countries like Ireland and Greece are in danger of defaulting on their obligations
and admitted the euro was under intense pressure and heavily indebted countries
could be forced out of the single currency. Pohl did note it could be very
expensive for any country considering the possibility of leaving the Euro-Zone
commenting that the exchange rate could go down, 50 or 60% and then interest
rates would go sky high because the markets would lose all confidence.
*** NOTES ***
- The concerns continue to mount over the global economy and the impact on the
financial sector as the stress test commences today for US banks. Talk
circulating that Citigroup [C] will announce an agreement to have the
Government increase its stake in the entity to 40%. AIG reportedly in talks
about breaking company into 3 separate gov't controlled parts The UK banks
started to present today.
- European and US equities moving off session highs as the NY morning approaches
- Britain launched a scheme which could end up insuring more
than Â£500B worth of toxic bank assets and risky loans
- The JPY continues its soft tone that it has carried all week. The BoJ's Noda
noted that the Japanese economy was worse than the central bank's prior
forecast made only last month.
- Euro-Zone Feb confidence data below expectations with the economic component
hitting an all-time low
- Looking Ahead: Main earnings General Motors[GM] ands Sears Holdings [SHLD]
- (GE) German Jan Wholesale Price Index M/M: -2.0% expected v -3.0% prior; Y/Y:
-6.3% expected v -3.3% prior
- (GE) Feb CPI - Baden Wuttemburg M/M: No expectations v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: NO
expectations v 1.1% prior
- 6:00 (GE) Feb CPI- Bavaria M/M: No expectations v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: No
expectations v 1.3% prior
- 8:00 (EU) ECB's Trichet speaks in Dublin
- 8:30 (US) Jan Durable Goods Orders: -2.5% expected v -3.0% prior; Durables Ex
Transportations: -2.2% expected v -3.9% prior
- 8:30 (GE) Initial Jobless Claims w/e Feb 21: 625k expected v 627k prior;
Continuing Claims w/e Feb 14th: 5.025M expected v 4.987M prior
- (GE) German Feb Prelim CPI M/M: 0.3% expected v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 0.8%
expected v 0.9% prior, EU Harmonized M/M: 0.3% expected v-0.6% prior; Y/Y: 0.7%
v 0.9% prior
- 10:00 (GE) Jan New Home Sales: 324k expected v 331k prior; M/M: -2.1%
expected v -14.7% prior
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $22B 7y Notes
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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