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Forex Blog - European Market Update: World Bank leads coordinated 2 year plan to lend €25B to banks and businesses in Eastern Europe; SEK currency slumps after weaker GDP data

Today 06:04am EST/11:04am GMT

European Market Update: World Bank leads coordinated 2 year plan to lend €25B to banks and businesses in Eastern Europe; SEK currency slumps after weaker GDP data

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (IN) India Q4 GDP Y/Y: 5.3% v 6.1%e

- (TH) Thailand Jan Manufacturing Production Y/Y: -21.3% v -23.0%e; Manufacturing Index: 155.6 v 156.6 prior

- (TH) Thailand Jan Current Account Balance: $2.3B v $1.1Be; Total Trade balance $1.69B v $$496.0M prior

- (SP) Feb Prelim CPI - EU Harmonized Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.8%e

- (HU) Jan Unemployment Rate: 8.4% v 8.3%e

- (SP) Spain Dec Current Account -€6.37B v -€8.5B prior

- (DE) Denmark Q4 GDP Q/Q: -2.0% v -0.9%e; Y/Y: -3.9% v -2.0%e

- (IT) Feb Retailers Confidence General: 94.7 v 95.3 prior; Services Survey: 32 v -30 prior

- (SW) Swedish Jan PPI M/M: 0.9% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 3.9% v 3.0%e

- (SW) Swedish Q4 GDP Q/Q: -2.4% v -1.6%e; Y/Y: -4.9% v -2.1%e

- (SW) Swedish Jan Retail Sales: 1.3% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v -0.4%e

- (SW) Swedish Q4 Current Account: SEK63.6 v SEK70.9B prior

- (IT) Italian Dec Large Company Employment: -0.7% v -1.0% prior

- (NO) Norwegian Q4 Manufacturing Wage Index Q/Q: 1.0% v 2.5% prior

- (CZ) Czech Money Supply Y/Y: % v 6.5% prior

- (EU) Euro-zone Jan CPI M/M: -0.8% v -0.8%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.1%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.8%e

- (EU) Euro-zone Unemployment Rate: 8.2% v 8.1%e

- (GE) German Feb Prelim CPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 0.8%e

- (GE) German Feb Preliminary EU Harmonized M/M: 0.7% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 0.7%e

- (SZ) Swiss Feb KOF Leading Indicator: -1.40 v -0.93e, lowest reading on record

- (UK) Jan House Prices M/M: -0.8%; Y/Y: -15.1% - Land Registry



*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- Equities: Lloyds [LLOY.UK] Reported FY08 Net €819M compared to forecasts of £1.51B. Revenues were €9.8B below the €11.1B consensus. It confirmed talks with UK treasury on Asset Protection Scheme. CEO commented that downside risks are seen in the UK economy with 2009 GDP contraction of 2.5% || Deutsche Telecom [DTE.GE] Reports Q4 Net €861M above consensus of €670M on an ex-item basis. Revenues came in at €16.1B above €15.9B forecast. It maintained its dividend at €0.78/shr. It noted that its -UK mobile operation was hurt by fierce competition but - T-Mobile USA had 'double digit' growth || Roche [ROG.SZ: Firm's Mabthera drug receives EU approval to treat patients with chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia || Fuchs [FPE.GE] Reported FY08 Net €100.3M inline with consensus of €100M. revenues were €1.39B also in line. It would increase dividend on pref shares to €1.60/shr from €1.50 prior. It did note that unsatisfactory market conditions to further continue in 2009 || Nyrstar [NYR.BE] Reported H2 Net loss €614M worse than the loss €569M expected. Revenues were €1B above €899M forecasts. It would not pay dividend for FY08. It did note that the effects of the sudden and severe downturn in global economy during H2 were expected to continue throughout 2009. || Enel [ENEL.IT] Italian press reports that the company is planning to issue up to €7B in rights issue .Il Sole 24 Ore reported that the plan would be announced on Mar 12th with Mediobanca SpA possible advising on the share sale || Erste Bank [EBS.AS] Reported 2008 Net profit of €859.6M below analyst estimates of €935M. Revenues were €7.00B slightly above the forecast of €6.76. The bank announced a capital raise and would reduce its FY08 dividend to €0.65/shr v €0.75 prior> The capital raise would bring up to €2.7B participation and hybrid capital in total, both from investors and Austrian govt, which would provide €1.89B of capital increase || AstraZeneca [AZN.UK] Received FDA Complete Response Letter on Seroquel William Hill [WMH.UK] Reported FY08 Operating Profit £278.6M slightly above expectations of £269M. revenues were £964M just below the £999M estimate. It announced that it would raise £350M in new rights issue (50% of share capital) and wouldl not pay final dividend. The company also entered into new bank facilities that, under a forward-start mechanism, and together with our £250M existing bank facility and would provide aggregate funding to the Group of £838.5M || Acciona [ANA.SP] Reported FY08 Net profit €464M missing estimates of €501.1M. Revenues were €12.67B above consensus of €12.22B. its Net debt came in at €17.9B and flat. || Iberia Airlines [IBLA.SP] Reported Q4 Net loss €19M better than the loss €41.5M expected. Revenues were €1.33B roughly in line with consensus of €1.32B.e



- Speakers: ECB's Weber applauded that the central bank has achieved anchoring of inflationary expectations. He commented that the Euro-Zone has seen the emergence of spread in most market segments and noted that the occurrences in these differentials due to inappropriate national policies || ECB's Ordonez: Europe was confronting a crisis of unknown proportions and is facing the prospects of a deep recession. Structural reforms are needed to reduce impact of the economic situation. He applauded the ECB's effort in keeping inflation anchored and commented that the Euro currency helpt to protect the region from an exchange rate crisis. He noted that Euro-Zone regional divergence was quite moderate, but more must be done to reduce differences in inflation and GDP across EMU. EMU nations should continue to attempt to co-ordinate fiscal policy and that stability was best for jobs and economic growth. || ECB's Gonzales-Paramo commented that some Euro-Zone member in weak fiscal position || IMF Strauss Khan welcomed to any joint action plan to aide Eastern European countries || EU's Almunia reiterated that chances of EuroZone break-up are remote, interest in joining EMU is increasing



- In Currencies: Risk Aversion set in during the European morning. The GBP was weaker after Lloyds Banking Group Plc failed to announce an agreement on a government asset insurance program. The GBP/USD was off 100 pips at 1.4180 and EUR/GBP tested the 0.8950 area ||The Indian Q4 GDP data came in below forecasts. The scope of the global crisis highlighted by the World Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the European Investment Bank announcing measures to provide up to €24.5B in aid to Eastern Europe. EUR/USD below the 1.27 level. Risk aversion allowing the JPY pairs to retreat from recent moves. USD/JPY off 97.50, off 85 pips from opening levels in Asia. EUR/JPY at 123.60, lower by 150 pips from its Tokyo open.|| EUR/SEK recorded a new all time high of 11.4945 in the session following its weaker GDP data || South Korean FX authorities seen selling USD to counter recent KRW weakness as the Won tested above 1,540 level to hit its worse level since 1998|| Swiss National Bank's Roth announces that he will retire at end of the year 2009, No successor named at this point



- Fixed income: Month end funding, position squaring and weak equities has seen fixed income well bid this morning after yesterday's aggressive sell off. Gilt futures, which have rolled into June, are 72 ticks at 121.95 the time of writing, outperforming Bunds (up 40 ticks at 124.85) and T-Notes futures (6 ticks higher at 121-29). France announced plans to sell €7B in new OAT's next week. In corporate, Centrica has mandated a 2 part sterling denominated issue, with pricing indicated at 260bp over gilts for a new 5y , and 270bps in a new 13 year.



- In Energy: Nigeria stated it would privatize four state owned oil refineries; weak oil prices create need to raise funds || TNK-BP Holding [TNBP.RU] Reported FY08 reserve replacement ratio at 146% with proven reserves 10.3Boe || Nippon Oil [5001.JP] Reported March crude oil throughput down 22% y/y to 3.99M KL with the decline due to refinery maintenance. The cut in planned crude throughput comes in response to continued weak domestic oil demand || Norwegian Central Bank stated that it would not purchase FX for Oil Fund in March compared to NOK150M/day spent in February



- Credit Crisis: World Bank leads coordinated 2 year plan to lend €25B to banks and businesses in Eastern Europe. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) to guarantee up to €6B for Eastern European financial sector, European Investment Bank to commit €11B for businesses. World Bank to lend €7.5B for banks, trade financing and risk insurance. The lenders call for fast and coordinated action to address regions crisis.|| Swedish Riksbank entered into pre-cautionary arrangement with Estonia

- Estonian Central bank can borrow up to SEK10B



*** NOTES ***

- Dealer continue the amount of debt the US will accumulate to fight off its economic and financial crisis with the cumulative US deficit of $3.8T during 2010 to 2014 period, represents 4.7% of GDP

- Emerging market growth is moving toward the front burner of issues. India Q4 GDPO came in at 5.3% below the 6.1% forecast.. China remains confident it would achieve 8% growth.

- World Bank leads coordinated 2 year plan to lend € 25B to banks and businesses in Eastern Europe.

- S&P cuts rating of 10 life insurers on increased loss assumptions and capital adequacy

- Dealers noting that month end positioning would likely morph into rebalancing flows

- Looking Ahead:

- 7:00 (SA) South African Jan Trade Balance: ZAR5.5B expected v -ZAR1.6B prior.

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Q4 Current Account (BOP): -$5.1B expected v $5.6B prior

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Jan Industrial Product Price: -0.5% expected ; Raw materials Price Index M/M: -2.3% expected

- 8:30 (US) Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -5.4% expected v -3.8% prior

- 8:30 (US) GDP Price Index: -0.1% expected v -0.1% prior

- 8:30 (US) Q4 Core PCE Q/Q: 0.6% expected v 0.6% prior

- 8:30 (US) Q4 Personal Consumption: -3.7% expected v -3.5% prior

- 9:45 (US) Feb Chicago Purchasing Manager Index: 33.0 expected v 33.3 prior

- 10:00 (US) Feb Final University of Michigan Confidence Index: 56.0 expected v 56.2 prior

- 10:00 (US) Feb NAPM- Milwaukee: 35.0 expected v 33.0 prior

-(GE) German Feb Prelim CPI M/M: 0.3% expected v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 0.8% expected v 0.9% prior, EU Harmonized M/M: 0.3% expected v-0.6% prior; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.9% prior

- 10:15 (EU) ECB's Nowotny speaks in Vienna

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
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