User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday February 27, 2009 - 13:11:31 GMT
Black Swan Capital -

Share This Story:
| | Email

This is fresh! China to grow at 8%!

Key News
• Euro Area Risks Breakup on Bank Woes, Subprime Bear Hayman Says (Bloomberg)
• The dollar is approaching a three- year high against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners as the plunge in the yen and Swiss franc leaves the world’s reserve currency the only refuge from economic turmoil. (Bloomberg)

 (Chart unavailable in text format.)
• Production at manufacturers [in Japan] tumbled a stunning 10 percent from the previous month, the largest decline since Tokyo began measuring such data in 1953. [Exports for January ’09 fell a stunning 45.7%] (Reuters)

 (Chart unavailable in text format.)

• The [S. Korean] won fell to an 11-year low on Friday. (Reuters)

 (Chart unavailable in text format.)

• Five months after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings, risk-averse investors across the world are still flocking to the safe-haven instruments, and in the process shunning riskier debt, a signal of the continued woes plaguing the economy and financial markets.
A slew of government-bond auctions this week, which totaled $94 billion in sales, underscored the point. At an auction of two-year notes Tuesday, bids for the securities outnumbered the amount being offered by a ratio of more than 2.5 to 1 even though they yielded just 0.96%. The sales were followed up with robust demand at auctions of five-year and seven-year notes Wednesday and Thursday. (WSJ)


(Chart unavailable in text format.)
• Quick Summary of Eastern Europe from The Economist:
 (Chart unavailable in text format.)
Source: The Economist

Key Reports Due:
8:30 a.m. 4Q Preliminary GDP: Previous: -3.8%.
9:45 a.m. Jan Chicago PMI: Previous: 33.3.
10:00 a.m. End-Feb Reuters/U Mich Sentiment Index: Previous: 61.2.

Quotable  [our emphasis]

The cold statistics have hardly been encouraging for the traditional view. On a total return basis, the Ibbotson data show that the S&P 500 has underperformed long-term Treasury bonds for the last five-year, 10-year, and 25-year periods, and by substantial amounts.
These data are not to be taken lightly.
If the long-run expected return on bonds in the future were higher than the expected return on equities, the capitalist system would grind to a halt, because the reward system would be completely out of whack with the risks involved. After all, from the end of 1949 to the end of 2000, the S&P 500 provided a total annual return of 13.1 per cent, while long Treasuries could grind out only 5.8 per cent a year.
But does this history really tell us anything about what lies ahead? Neither the awesome historical track record of equities nor the theoretical case is a promise of a realised equity risk premium. John Maynard Keynes, in an immortal observation about the future, expressed the matter in simple but obvious terms: “We simply do not know.”
Relying on the long run for investment decisions is essentially relying on trend lines. But how certain can we be that trends are destiny? Trends bend. Trends break. Today, in fact, we have no idea where any trend lines might begin or end, or even whether any trend lines still exist.
As Lord Keynes in one of his best known (and wisest) observations, reminded us: “The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in the tempestuous seasons they only tell us that when the storm is past the ocean will be flat.” To Lord Keynes, the tempestuous seas are the norm. We cannot escape the short run.
There is an even deeper reason to reject the long run as a guide to future investment policy. The long-run results we can discern in the data of stock market history are not a random set of numbers: each event was the result of a preceding event rather than an independent observation. This is a statement of the highest importance. Any starting conditions we select in the historical data cannot replicate the starting conditions at any other moment because the preceding events in the two cases are never identical. There is no predestined rate of return. There is only an expected return that may not be realised.
   Peter Bernstein, The flight of the long run (FT 2-26-09)

FX Trading – This is fresh!  China to grow at 8%!

China bulls don’t worry, be happy, because China is going to be the sole winner in this race to the bottom—don’t you know. 

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- China said its 8 percent growth target for this year is within reach even as the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression hammers economies worldwide.

Liu Tienan, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, restated the goal at a briefing in Beijing today and said China has “the conditions” and “the confidence” to meet it.

And if you believe that one, we have all kinds of things here we’d like you go bid on…this from yesterday’s The Lex Column published by the Financial Times:

Asian exports
Published: February 25 2009 09:14 | Last updated: February 25 2009 19:03
The sight of half-laden container ships plying the seas is another clue that this is no ordinary recession. Japanese exports almost halved in January. A geographic breakdown of Wednesday’s 46 per cent year-on-year drop in exports shows the buyers’ strike is global. Japanese exports to the US fell 53 per cent and to the European Union and Asia by 47 per cent. This follows an 18 per cent drop in China, 33 per cent in South Korea and 44 per cent in Taiwan.
Statistics are skewed by the Chinese lunar new year holidays. But lead indicators suggest there is worse to come. Throughput at China’s once bustling ports is thinning. After growing at an annual 20-30 per cent from 2004, volumes have now returned to 2006 levels. Chinese import processing, which leads exports by a month or two, plunged 50 per cent, year on year, in January, according to Citigroup.
…and we noticed this also from the Financial Times this yesterday in a story about Hong Kong’s deepening recession [our emphasis]:

Hong Kong warns of deeper recession
By Tom Mitchell in Hong Kong
Published: February 26 2009 02:00 | Last updated: February 26 2009 02:00
Hong Kong's recession will worsen this year after gross domestic product fell 2.5 per cent in the fourth quarter, the territory's financial secretary has warned, as the global financial crisis continues.
…According to Mr Tsang, exports - primarily "reexports" of China-made goods flowing through Hong Kong's port - grew an anaemic 2 per cent in real terms last year. The territory's entrepreneurs are the largest investors in southern China's manufacturing sector. Exports from neighbouring Guangdong province, which accounts for one-third of China's total, fell 23.6 per cent in January to US$24.2bn (€19bn, £17bn).
We know there are believers in China still out there.  In fact, we continue to see global strategists tell us it’s time to buy Chinese stocks because they are “cheap.”  We keep asking: Cheap compared to what?  I guess cheap if China does grow 8% and we have this totally wrong.  But if we are right and growth is close to zero or negative, we think social unrest will make it to the front pages of even fawning financial news pubs.  And if we are right about that, then the word cheap may start to make a lot more sense to us.



China ETF vs. Australian $ - US$ Daily ...


Seems the Aussie didn’t follow through on the good China news today…in lock-step they go …

 (Chart unavailable in text format.)

Have a great weekend!

Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital LLC


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105