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Forex Blog - European market Update: Financial sector woes continue

Today 05:50am EST/10:50am GMT

European market Update: Financial sector woes continue

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (RU) Russia Feb Manufacturing PMI 40.6 v 34.4 prior

- (SW) Swedish Feb Swedbank PMI: 33.9 v 33.0e

- (IR) Ireland Feb Manufacturing PMI 32.2 v 38.9 prior 

- (HU) Hungary Feb Manufacturing PMI 39.7 v 38.5 prior 

- (HU) Hungary Jan Producer Prices M/M: 3.0% v -0.9% prior; Y/Y: 5.3% v 5.5%e

- (TU) Turkey Feb Manufacturing PMI 34.2 v 32.9 prior

- (SP) Spain Feb Manufacturing PMI: 31.8 v 31.5 prior

- (SZ) Swiss Feb SVME Purchasing manager Index: 32.6 v 34.8e; lowest reading on record

- (HK) Hong Kong Jan Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 7.4% v 1.2%e; Volume Y/Y: 5.4% v 0.1%e

- (CZ) Feb Manufacturing PMI: 32.6 v 31.5 prior

- (IT) Feb PMI Manufacturing: 35.0 v 35.3e

- (FR) French Feb Final PMI Manufacturing: 34.8 v 35.4e

- (GE) German Feb Final PMI Manufacturing: 32.1 v 32.2e

- (EU) Euro-Zone Feb Final PMI Manufacturing: 33.5 v 33.6e; lowest reading on record

- (NO) Norway Jan Retail Sales Volume M/M: 1.1% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.3%e

- (SW) Swedish Dec Wages Non-Manual Workers: 3.9% v 4.1% prior

- (PD) Polish Q4 GDP: 2.9% v 2.8%e

- (UK) Feb PMI Manufacturing: 34.7 v 35.0e

- (UK) Jan Net Consumer Credit: £0.4B v £0.5Be; Net Lending: £0.7B v £1.5Be

- (UK) Jan Final M4 Money Supply M/M: 2.5% v 2.5% prior; Y/Y: 17.5% v 17.5% prior, Highest annual rate since April 1990

- (UK) Jan Mortgage Approvals: 31K v 33Ke

- (SA) South Africa Q4 Unemployment: 21.9% v 23.2% prior

- (IT) Feb Preliminary CPI (NIC Incl Tobacco) M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.5%e

- (IT) Feb Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized) M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.4%e

- (EU) Feb Euro-Zone CPI Estimate Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.0%e


*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- Equities: HSBC [HSBA.UK]Reported FY08 Pretax $19.9B above $18.0B forecast on an ex item basis. Its net interest income came in at $42.56B, up 13% y/y. its Tier 1 Capital ratio was 8.3%. The Loan impairment charges and other credit risk provisions were $24.9B compared to $17.20B y/y. The firm Proposed a 12 for 5 rights issue at 254p/shr to raise €12.5B. Tbe firm noted that no further consumer finance business through the HFC in the US wold take place and would close majority of the network. The shutdown would affect 5K to 6K positions (1.5% of total workforce). Allied Irish Bank [ALBK.UK] Reported Prelim FY08 Net profit €885M versus €781.9M estimates. Its Irish FY08 operations totaled a loss of €52M || Vivendi [VIV.FR] Reported Q4 Adj Profit €656M above €609.9M estimates. Revenues were €7.62B slightly below expectations of €7.75B. Fot its fiscal year Net adj profit €2.74B just below consensus of €2.78B. with revenues at €25.39B missng the €25.49B estimate. It would propose FY08 div of €1.4/shr. The CEO saw strong growth in adj EBIT for FY09 || Ipsen [IPN.FR] Reported FY08 Net profit €147.2M in line with €140.9M estimates. Its operating profit came in at €180.1M below the €199.4M forecasts. Revenues were €1.04B slight better than the expectations of €1.02B. Company warned its Groups 2009 sales would be adversely impacted depending on the magnitude and the length of the difficulties encountered in these Eastern European countries, which represented approximately 10% of its consolidated sales and approximately 20% if its growth in 2008. || Ahold [AH.NV: ReportedQ4 Net €285M above €230M estimates. Revenues were €6.6B compared to €6.5B forecasts. || Pearson [PSON.UK] Reported Preliminary FY08 Net £292M compared to £431.8M estimates. It revenues were £4.81B slightly above £4.71B forecasts. It raised dividend by 7% to 33.8p/shr. || Segro [SGRO.UK] Confirmed that discussions are being held about a possible equity capital raising || Amlin AML.UK: FY08 Pretax £121.6M below forecasts of £129.9M. Gross written premiums were £1.03b compared to £1.05b y/y. CEO stated that there was no need to pursue new capital raises and there were possibility of acquisitions continues to exist || Wacker Neuson [WAC.GE] Reported FY08 EBITDA €100M below consensus of €100.7B. revenues were €870.3M in line with €868.4M expectations. The company remained committed to its long-term growth strategy and was in secure financial position but remained very cautious about business developments in 2009> it would not provide forecast for this year || Telekom Austria [TKA.AS] Confirmed CEO Boris Nemsic to resign by the end of March and to join Vimpelcom as its CEO || Porsche [PAH3.GE] Reportedly H1 Rev €3.04B, down 12.% y/y. Deliveries came in at 34.3K units, down 27% y/y || 


- Speakers: EU's Almunia: Rising wave of protectionist sentiment is worrisome; More EU nations should join the Eurozone || EU's Barroso commented that a 'strong, single market' was the way to exit economic crisis and reiterated that the euro currency provided safety amid the global crisis || French Fin Min Lagarde lowered its 2009 GDP to -1.5% with a deficit to GDP at 5.0% || Russian Fin Min: Russia's recession to track path of US closely. He added that a Fast Ruble appreciation seemed unlikely as did any quick replenishing of reserves. || South Korea's Kim commented there were no concerns regarding South Korea's external debt but that the govt was monitoring external conditions || OECD's Gurria stated that there was additional room to cut rates in Latin America countires citing low inflationary environment. || EU's Barroso: A 'strong, single market' is the way to exit crisis; Euro providing safety amid crisis || 


- In Currencies: Risk aversion helped to keep the USD firmer from its closing levels seen from Friday. There remain continued concerns over the eastern European region after the disappointment from the weekend's EU summit that failed to provide any concerted support for region. Dealers pondering if the pre Asian market lows made in EUR/USD are 'rock solid support that could last throughout the remainder of the week into US payroll data on Friday. Overall theme for the Euro during the morning session has been the lacked the impetus to make a significant test of the downside. Dealer chatter of decent option related support is providing a floor in place and renewed talk of large size 1.2500 barriers. The GBP/USD was steady during the European morning around the 1.42 area. The Shadow MPC voted in favor of a steady 1.00% repo rate at the upcoming BOE rate decision this Thursday. The market consensus is for the BOE to cut by another 50bps to bring its key rate to 0.5% || The JPY was little changed during the morning. Japanese press notin that the issue of JPY weakness could spark issues with US administration and manufacturers. The article noted that this might come to an end come FY end on March 31st. || CHF currency weaker after its soft Manufacturing PMI data. USD/CHF was at 1.1750 and EUR/CHF at 1.4805. || Commodity currencies were softer as concerns that the global recession was worsening prompting a realignment in CAD and AUD related pairs. . 


- Fixed income: Steepening Gains holding during the morning session as US treasuries futures remained at the highs of its electronic session highs set against a backdrop of global equity weakness and jitters in credit markets.


- In Energy: OPEC's Algerian Oil Min Khelil commented that a possible announcement of additional OPEC cuts was possible in March 15th meeting || Over the weekend, Iran Oil Minister stated that OPEC was likely to maintain oil output during March 15 meeting ||Iraq seeks to increase its Oil Output by 500K bpd in2 Yrs. Iraq South Oil Output was down roughly 250K bpd since the middle of last year || Russian Energy Min: Feb Oil output was 9.72M bpd, down 0.7% y/ || Rosneft [ROSN.RU] Reported FY08 proven oil reserves at 22.3B boe, gas at 27.7B boe, Oil reserve replacement rate +172% || 


Credit Crisis: Commerzbank analyst note observed that the mounting risks made the EUR a precarious place to invest. The report noted that the weekend decision by the EU's not to go for a coordinated bailout of Eastern Europe put the Euro at risk in several ways, including the threat to EMU countries themselves. "Their collapse would be a disaster for the European currency 


*** NOTES ***

- Asian and European equity markets were sharply lower in the session. News that AIG would need $30B more in bail-out funds rattling through the global financial sector. Thus the contagion sending bank spreads wider in the European morning. HSBC rights issue also sending jitters through the marmets. 

- EU Crisis meeting over the weekend agreed to avoid protectionism but rejected Hungary PM's call for EU aid package for Eastern Europe. 

- Looking Ahead: Winter storm hitting US Northeast could dampen market liquidity on Monday. 

- 8:30 (BR) Brazil Feb PMI Manufacturing: No estimate v 38.1 prior

- 8:30 (CA) Canada Dec Gross Domestic Product M/M: -0.7% expected v -0.7% prior; GDP Annualized: -3.6% expected v 1.3% prior

- 8:30 (US) Jan Personal Income” -0.2% expected v -0.2% prior; Personal Spending: 0.45 expected v -1.0% prior

- 8:30 (US) Jan PCE Core M/M: 0.1% expected v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.6% expected v 1.7% prior; PCE Deflator Y/Y: 0.55 expected v 0.6% prior

- 9:00 (BR) Feb Brazil Trade Balance: $1.10B expected v -$518M prior

- 10:00 (US) Feb ISM Manufacturing: 34.0 expected v 35.6 prior; Prices Paid: 33.5 expected v 29.0 prior

- 10:00 (US) Jan Construction Spending M/M: -1.5% expected v -1.4% prior

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



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