sea of red in the equities world last night. Indices were down across the
globe, the S&P500 down 3.6% early NZT, the Eurostoxx and FTSE closing -5%,
and the Nikkei -4%. This feels like a new wave of selling, as markets sense
governmentsâ€™ supportive measures to date are inadequate, and the bailout game
continues, witness AIGâ€™s return to ask for US$30 billion more yesterday. HSBC
raised more capital via a 48% discounted rights issue, hurting bank equities in
the UK. The IMF
said it will probably join private forecasters in a negative global growth
outlook. Asian currencies were battered further, their central banks selling
USD in defence, and then rebalancing their reserves by buying USD against EUR,
GBP etc. Oil fell more than one would expect, down 10% to $40, as OPEC cuts were
seen to have little effect. US treasuries reasserted
their risk-averse identities, 10yr notes rallying by 11bp.
unusually subdued overnight, locked in the 0.4910 to 0.4970 range established
late in the domestic session. Local traders wait for the RBA move at NZT. Yesterdayâ€™s Mascot Finance failure
will be watched closely for the manner and speed of resolution for deposit
holders which have government guarantees.
AUD failed to
make further headway down after the domestic session, supported at 0.63, and
capped at 0.6390. With market forecasts for the RBA rate cut today spread between
zero and 50bp, there is potential for an AUD reaction, and pre-positioning was
likely light. AUD/NZD made an attempt on 1.29, but fell a bit shy, and seems more
comfortable closer to 1.28 for now.
1.2545 to 1.2635 range suggested a market wary of the 1.25 support level.
GBP displayed no
such interest in consolidation, falling from 1.4290 to 1.3960 during Europe; the data
was all weak, and HSBCâ€™s issue spooked local equities. JPY was well contained
by 97 to 98, Asian currency sellers crowding each other for now.
factory ISM rose slightly to 35.8, consolidating the gain made in January. The rise
was mainly due to an improvement in production. The employment indicator dropped
to its lowest level since the survey began in 1948, further evidence that the pace
of job losses is accelerating.
construction spending fell 3.3% in January, and recent months were revised down,
making the construction picture look even bleaker than before.
core PCE deflator continued its slide to 1.6% yr, its lowest
since 2003. Personal income posted a surprise gain of 0.4%, and personal
spending was stronger than expected at 0.4%, continuing the theme of relative
stability in much of the data relating to January.
factory PMI was revised from 33.6 to 33.5 in Feb in the final
estimate, setting a new low for the series.
CPI flash estimate was surprisingly strong at 1.2% yr, especially given base effects
will have depressed the figure.
factory PMI fell to 34.7, just a whisker above Novemberâ€™s 17-year low,
suggesting another savage negative for March quarter GDP.
consumer credit expanded ÂŁ0.4bn, while net mortgage lending grew just ÂŁ0.7bn.
Taken together, overall net lending to individuals increased by the smallest margin
since records began in 1993.
HBoS house prices fell 2% in February, unwinding Januaryâ€™s surprise
increase and bringing annual house price inflation to -17.8%.
GDP fell -3.4% annualised in Q4. Monthly GDP showed that each month of the
quarter was weaker than the last, with a whopping 1% decline in December.
The NZD has
now arrived in the 0.45-0.50 window we forecast. The 0.50 level now becomes a
strong cap on price action, and moves from here onward should be laboured. A
0.49 to 0.50 range best describes our expectations for today, but watch for any
surprise move by the RBA.
Speizer, Senior Market Strategist, NZ, Ph: (04) 470 8266
contributions from Westpac Economics
Country Release Last Forecast
3 Mar Aus
Jan Retail Sales 3.8% 0.6%
Acct Balance AUDbn â€“9.7 â€“8.0
Spending 1.1% 1.1%
Decision () 3.25% 3.0%
US Jan Pending
Home Sales 6.3% â€“1.0%
Sales mn annâ€™lsd 9.6 9.4
UK Jan PMI
Construction 34.5 32.0
Can BoC Rate
Decision 1.0% 0.75%
4 Mar NZ Feb
ANZ Commodity Prices -4.3% â€“
Aus Q4 GDP
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (2 March)
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (16 February)
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (9 February)
â€˘ NZ Q4 HLFS
Review (5 February)
â€˘ NZ Q4 LCI
and QES Review (2 February)
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (2 February)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.