Standard and Charter reported [STAN.UK] FY08 Net $3.41B ahead of the $3.1B
expectations and Operating Income at $14B compared to $11B reported year on
year. Standard's ROE stood at 15.2% v 16.2% reported year on year. Tier 1
capital ratio was 7.6% v 6.6% reported year on year with the firms total assets
put at $435B up from $330B in 2007. Additionally the firm noted that it is
continuing to de-risk its asset book, positioning it well to confront
challenges arising from uncertain environment. || Munich Re [MUV2.GE] Reported
Q4 Net profit ÔéČ133M v 95.5Me, Op profit ÔéČ844M v ÔéČ648Me. Gross premiums written
ÔéČ9.71B, drops FY09 and FY10 guidance || Kuehn & Nagel [KNIN.SZ] Reported
FY08 Net CHF585M slightly below estimates of CHF596M. Its revenues came in
slight better at CHF21.6B compared to consensus of CHF20.3B. The company gave
no indications that would economy will recover quickly and expected volume
reductions in all units. It would implement rigorous cost management and efficiencies
|| Bayer [BAY.GE] Reported Q4 Net profit of ÔéČ106M below consensus of ÔéČ192.M.
with revenues of ÔéČ7.92B slightly above forecast of ÔéČ7.86B. It guided FY09
revenues of ÔéČ32B compared to expectations of ÔéČ33.1B. Its Adj EBITDA margin to
decline by 5% versus prior expectations of an increase citing that slump in
demand for its plastics and foams overshadowed growth at its drugs unit.. It
guided 2009 CAPEX at ÔéČ1.5B || CRH [CRH] Reported FY09 Pretax profit of ÔéČ1.63B
slightly above ÔéČ1.60B estimates. Revenues were ÔéČ20.89B and in line with ÔéČ20.88B
forecast. It announced a 2 for 7 discounted rights issue of 152M ordinary
shares at ÔéČ8.40/shr. It stated that its outlook for 2009 was extremely
challenging ||Groupe Danone [BN.FR] US Court
stated that company should pursue claims against Hangzhou Wahaha Group in China
|| Galenica [GALN.SZ] Acquired Sun Store pharmacy chain but the financial terms
of the transactions were not disclosed. Sun Store operates 100 shops throughout
UCB [UCB.BE] Reported FY08 Net profit of ÔéČ314M after items and above estimates
of ÔéČ259.9M. Its revenues were ÔéČ3.6B better than ÔéČ3.22B forecast. It guided FY09
Net profit to exceed ÔéČ130M versus current consensus of ÔéČ233.9M with revenues to
reach ÔéČ3.3B compared to estimates of ÔéČ2.93B. The company noted that
Intellectual property settlement offsetting the loss of patent protection for
key drugs. || Gartner: 17M less phones in Cellphone inventory in Q4; Demand not
stabilizing in 2009. The report noted that Samsung,
LG won market share in Q4 || Barry Callebaut [BARN.SZ] Signed an MoU with Natra
to combine European consumer chocolate businesses and would transfer Stollwerck
unit to Natra. It would now focus on core industrial business and expected to
sell at least 85K tons/yr chocolate to Natra. Deal expected to close by summer
of 2009, subject to long-term funding and Financial terms not disclosed ||
Meggitt [MGGT.UK] Reported FY08 Pretax ┬ú243.3Mabv ┬ú212.7Me, Rev ┬ú1.16B above
estimates of ┬ú1.08B. it would reduce 15% of civil sector workforce and expected
2009 revenues to be close with 2008 levels || Wood group [WG.UK] Reported FY08
Pretax $384.1M slight below the $397M consensus. Revenues were $5.24B above
$5.18B forecast. It noted that its Group EBITA margin came in at 8.4% compared
to 7.2% y/y with margin improvements in all three divisions. Its final dividend
was raised by 29% to $0.09/shr || Puma [PUM.GE] CFO Dieter Bock resigned due to
personal reasons. The company also appointed Klaus Bauer to assume newly
created position of COO, effective Aug 1st || Volkswagen [VOW.GE] CEO of Audi
Unit stated that Feb global cars sales came in at 63K, which was down 11% y/y.
Audi unit production cuts reflected expectation of 10% sales decline in 2009.
Remember that Volkswagen reported its FY08 during yesterdays trading session,
revenues were ÔéČ113.8B ahead of the ÔéČ112.18B expected. The firm noted at that
time that refinancing costs would serve as a drag on future 09 profits and that
FY09 guidance could not be provided due to the lack of visibility || BMW [BMW.GE]
stated that in 2008 it had cut 4K positions and saw a further decline of 1K
jobs in 2009 through natural attrition. BMW reaffirmed that it was in
discussions with Fiat [F.IT]. Firm noted that it saw a savings of ÔéČ500M due to
lower labor costs in 2009. || Hypo real estate [HRX.GE] Its DEPFA funding IV LP
would not pay next coupon on ÔéČ500M preferred securities which was slated for
- Speakers: EU's Almunia commented that it could seek second stimulus package
if first stimulus did not have desired effect. He noted that it was too soon to
estimate impact of first stimulus || China's
PBoC Vice Gov reiterated confidence of achieving 8% GDP target in 2009. -To
watch economy before deciding whether to cut interest rates further He noted that
purchasing US Treasuries remained an option for China.
Fighting deflation is an essential worldwide task an and a bigger concern at
this time but must combat both inflationary and deflationary pressures || China
Commerce Ministry stated that China Feb exports did not show recovery and that
the drop in exports and imports were worse than January. The stable Yuan allows
for small fluctuations in its rate and added that he did not see any trend in
modest Yuan depreciation || BoJ Gov Shirakawa reiterated that Japan's economic
situation was 'severe' and deteriorating faster than previously expected ||
French PM Fillon: Impossible to predict end of global crisis, downturn to be
long and recovery difficult. He reiterated the view that 2009 French GDP could
contract in a range of -1.0% to -1.5% (Note: Consistent with Econ Min Lagarde's
forecast of -1.5% given on March 3rd). The PM stated that no stimulus can avert
economic crisis and that Gov't can not manage companies. Thus there are no
magic remedies in the current gobal crisis. The strategy must take into account
public debt and saw public deficit above 5% of GDP this year but hoped to
return to 3% deficit beyond 2012 || OECD Chief Economist stated that Eastern
Europe could confront an' economic havoc' comparable to the Asian crisis
experienced in late 1990s. Noted it is hard to accelerate euro accession plan
for the East but a 'fast track' to euro can be devised once crisis ends but the
current quarter might likely be the 'worst' yet. OECD Chief Gurria reiterated
the view that the economic crisis was becoming worse.
- In Currencies: The session saw a spat of risk appetite briefly return Some
desks saw the Australian central bank decision to hold interest rates steady as
a ÔÇťbuy carry tradeÔÇŁ signal which help weaken the USD and JPY pairs and propel
European equities initially higher. The EUR/USD tested the 1.2680 level before
retreating. Currency dealers initially suggested that the RBA decision to leave
its cash rate unchanged at 3.25% helped perhaps stiffen Trichet's backbone a
bit ahead of the ECB rate decision later this week. There is also chatter of a
1.2500 to 1.3000 option barrier in effect with expiration set for March 10th.
Dealer noting that the inability of the EUR/USD to break below the 1.25 on Sunday
during the Wellington open cemented
this option viewpoint || The USD/CAD was around the 1.29 level for fresh
3-month highs ahead of the BOC interest rate decision. The market looking for a
50bps rate cut to 0.50% ||
- Fixed income: Tensions in credit markets have perhaps been best exemplified
by the iTraxx crossover index, which touched an all time high above 1,125bps
this morning. Government bonds pared early losses as a sell off in equities
quickly took hold. In the UK,
the DMO tapped ┬ú3.75B of the 3.25% 2011 Gilts with strong results , however
with continued short end out performance in the UK
yield curve, traders will be looking to tomorrow's 2039 auction for a better
indication of appetite for UK
debt . Ahead of tomorrow's interest rate decisions, and with unfunded Gilt
purchases by the BoE now largely seen as inevitable, dealers have focused on
unconfirmed reports suggesting the ECB is considering enacting its own asset
purchase program and quantitative easing. In peripheral markets Austria
announced plans to sell ÔéČ1.65B in a new 5 year issue and Greece
confirmed plans to issue a new 10y bond as speculated, with supply pushing
yields spreads wider. In corporate supply, Deutcshe Bahn announced plans to
offer ÔéČ500B - ÔéČ1B in a new benchmark 10y offering, with pricing indicated at
160bps over swaps.
- In Energy: Iran
Oil Minister commented that OPEC to propose "solution" to improve oil
prices at its march 15th meeting. The minister also reiterated that its members
must remain committed to prior output cuts || Gazprom [GAZP.RU] Reported Q3 Net
RUB131.7B below single forecast of RUB149B. Revenues were RUB829.7B below
estimate of RUB989.4B. || Ukraine's Naftogaz says has funds to pay Feb gas
imports from Russia
- Credit Crisis: UK Chancellor Darling may reportedly use quantitative easing
measures and also anticipated that more financial institutions will use the
government's Asset Protection Scheme, which insures against losses arising from
toxic assets || China Feb New bank loans M/M: CNY1.10T v CNY1.62T prior month
*** NOTES ***
- The equity markets were mildly higher during the European morning. Some desks
saw the Australian central bank decision to hold interest rates steady as a
ÔÇťbuy carry tradeÔÇŁ signal which help weaken the USD and JPY pairs and boost
equities. However, the UK Construction PMI data reminded traders tat the global
economic scenario remains fragile. iTraxx Crossover spreads continue to hit
fresh all-time Wide Levels throughout the course of the day.
- Chinas Vice Central Bank Gov: Treasuries still important for China
currency reserve management.
- The Bank of Canada will have its interest rate decision this morning.
Consensus expectation is for a 50bps cut from 1.0% to 0.50%.
- Geithner testifies today, Wed and Thu. Some bank bailout details expected
- Looking Ahead:
- 8:00 (US) Fed's Lockhart speaks in Tampa
- 9:00 (CA) Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision: 0.50% expected v 1.00% prior
- 10:00 (US) Jan Pending Homes Sales: -3.5% expected v 6.3% prior
- 10:00 (US) Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies before Senate Budget committee in
- 10:00 (TU) Turkey Feb Consumer prices: M/M: 0.3% expected v 0.3% prior; Y/Y:
8.4% expected v 9.5% prior
- 10:00 (TU) Turkey Feb Producer prices: M/M: 0.4% expected v 0.2% prior; Y/Y:
5.7% expected v 7.9% prior
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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