Thursday January 6, 2005 - 00:55:50 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the British Pound vs U.s. Dollar 6th January 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.8860 ... 1.8900 ... 1.8926 ... 1.8950
Support....: 1.8817 ... 1.8775 ... 1.8729 ... 1.8685
We cautiously look for a pullback to 1.8950-86 at least
Further downside ween yesterday to 1.8729 and we feel this may have provided an intermediate low within the overall downtrend. Indeed, we feel that the 1.8815-20 area should now support and allow gains to move back to retest 1.8900 and 1.8926 with an expected target for this pullback at between 1.8950-86. Watch this area carefully as it may hold. Only a direct break of 1.8990 would allow gains to extend towards 1.9047-54 before lower again.
Further losses were seen yesterday to a new marginal low around 1.8729. However, we feel this provides an intermediate low within the downtrend and thus the main threat today is higher but within a larger consolidation pattern. Thus a more bearish view will require a breach of support first at 1.8815-20 and then at 1.8770-80. Only below 1.8770 would cause a retest of 1.8729 and probably follow-through to 1.8685 and the ultimate target at 1.8845.
Elliott Wave Comments:
5th January 2005
Loss of 1.8981 suggests we should now see Wave -iv- decline to the 1.8645 area representing a 50% retracement of the Wave -iii- rally from 1.7744 to 1.9548. The decline is either developing in a rather stretched ABC pattern or within a triple three. We favor the latter which should keep the rertacement in a second Wave x below 1.8981 and 1.9054-67 to allow a third ABC pattern down to target.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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