- Equity markets seem to be reprising their performance from yesterday, with
all three major US indices relinquishing any early gains before the European
close and heading straight down. The January pending US home sales reading was
-7.7%, twice the expected decline. Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke continues
to testify before Congress, already having said that any economic recovery
depends on the government's ability to stabilize weak financial markets. The
VIX volatility index remains over 50 while gold prices continue to retreat
aggressively inducing speculation of forced liquidation. Treasury prices
continue to rally on the back of weak stock markets erasing early losses. The 10-year
yields is back below 3.9%.
- The Fed and the Obama administration provided more details on the TALF just
before the open of trade. According to a joint Fed/Treasury statement, TALF
lending will begin on March 25th and run through December 2009. The New York
Fed will lend up to $200B secured by certain AAA-rated securities back by newly
and recently originated auto loans, credit card loans, student loans and
SBA-guaranteed small business loans. Just before the announcement, CNBC's
Liseman said the TALF could grow to become the Fed's largest emergency loan
program. The Wall Street Journal reported overnight that the Obama
administration is mulling the creation of multiple investment funds to buy
toxic assets, including separate funds capitalized by both government and
private funds and run by private investment managers. The private managers
would run the funds and have the power to decide what assets to buy and what
prices to pay. Other reports noted that the TALF may be expanded to buy up
- Leading financial stocks started off on the right foot, making considerable
gains on all the qualitative easing news. But deteriorating equity indices and
plenty of pessimism from Bernanke is helping erode these gains. In addition, GE
fell dramatically in early trading, with shares hitting levels last seen in the
early 1990s. Yesterday the WSJ highlighted GE Capital's exposure to Eastern
Europe, noting that could have much more than $26B (as disclosed
in 2008) committed to the region. After the bell Stern Agee said it doesn't
expect GE's dividend cut to help boost liquidity at the company. Elsewhere
among the financials, Russia
offered Bank of New York a $800M settlement deal in exchange for dropping its
$22B suit against the bank over allegations of illegal imports from back in the
- Another round of dreadful monthly sales results are expected from the
automakers later today. But in contrast to all the industry pessimism, two auto
retailing companies reported strikingly positive results before the open. Car
parts retailer AutoZone beat earnings and revenue targets by solid margins, and
reported healthy +6% same-store sales results. Used car seller America's
Car-Mart beat earnings estimates on an ex items basis and reported a big y/y
increase in unit sales. Shares of both AZO and CRMT are up 10% in early
trading. Shares of Trina Solar spiked up nearly 8% in early action before
trading off a bit, after the company beat Q4 revenue targets. TravelCenters of
America reported positive Q4 earnings compared to expectations for a big loss,
but missed revenues in a big way. Trading in shares of TA has been volatile.
- Equity trading continues to drive the currency market in today's session. The
greenback rebounded from earlier lows in European trading to move back toward
opening levels from Asia. Risk aversion was heightened by the January pending
US home sales reading. In his testimony, the Fed's Bernanke said policy makers
might need to expand aid to the banking system and take other aggressive measures
even at the cost of rising fiscal deficits. The IMF commented that all major
advance economies were in recession and that emerging and that developing
countries were slowing abruptly. As noted earlier today, dealer chatter
continues to circulate regarding a 1.2500 to 1.3000 option barrier with
expiration set for next week. Dealers are noting that the inability of EUR/USD
to break below the 1.25 on Sunday during the Wellington open cemented this
- The CAD weakened considerably following the expected 50bps interest rate cut
by the Bank of Canada. USD/CAD was moving back towards the 1.30 area for fresh
3-month highs. The British Pound retested the 1.4000 level for a second
straight session and again found some momentum to hold above the level.
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Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Max McKegg’s Daily Forex Trading Forecasts
FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the
Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders
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looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
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seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
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