- US equity indices extended yesterday's late sell off in the pre-market this
morning, with all three major indices opening down around 1.5% a piece. A heavy
load of news is buffeting markets, with China's
lack of confirmation of a fresh stimulus package (expectations of more Chinese
stimulus jolted markets upward yesterday), marginal same-store sales numbers,
employment data, ratings warnings on BoA and Wells Fargo from overnight, and
big rate cuts in Europe are presenting a very
complicated picture this morning. Note that the weekly initial and continuing
employment claims were a hair better than expected, yet revisions were slightly
- Shares of GE have steadily declined over the course of 2009, a trend that has
greatly accelerated in the wake of the company's dividend cut. Rumors and
speculation that the ratings agencies will cut GE's coveted AAA rating have
been rife since late February; yesterday PIMCO's Bill Gross went as far as to
say that the big decline in GE shares show the market has already priced in a
downgrade, noting that any ratings cut would force certain institutional
holders to limit their exposure to the company. Yesterday fresh rumors that GE
needs to raise capital to shore up GE Capital made the rounds. This was
promptly refuted by the company itself, yet overnight the WSJ reported that
investors fear the company could face large losses on GE Capital's $637B
balance sheet, particularly on assets such as commercial real estate and loans
in Eastern Europe. This morning GE's CFO gave a long,
candid interview on CNBC, insisting that the speculation about GE Capital is
overdone and affirming rather adamantly that the unit needs no additional
capital. Shares of GE were up 5% in early trading.
- Ford launched a significant debt restructuring plan yesterday afternoon, in
which it hopes to retire more than $10B of outstanding debt, including
debt-to-equity swaps. Moody's responded by lowering Ford's probability of
default rating and also cutting the rating on its secured revolving credit
facility. Fitch said the offers do not affect Ford's issuer default rating at
CCC. GM officially disclosed in its annual report filing that its auditor sees
significant doubt regarding the company's ability to continue as a going
concern. GM also disclosed it expects to receive additional loans of up to
$7.7B or more from the DOE, as had also been discussed in prior months. GM
responded in the mid morning by stating the auditor's claims were 'not a big
deal'. Bondholders at GM are due to speak with the Obama administration later
totday. Shares of Ford lost up to 5% in the early going, before popping back into
the black. GM is down 15%.
- Moody's put various ratings for Bank of America and Wells Fargo on review for
possible downgrade yesterday afternoon. For WFC-12%, Moody's noted that the
pressures on the bank's capital position make a multi-notch downgrade likely
for its financial strength rating. For BAC-6%, Moody's said the review was
prompted by concern that capital ratios could deteriorate in 2009 from their
already low levels due to the need to take high loan loss provisions and absorb
additional charges for its capital market exposure. Note that speculation is
circulating that Citi will be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial average.
- Wal-Mart is doing quite well this morning, with shares up 4% in the wake of
February same-store sales and a dividend hike. BJ's just managed to keep
same-store sales positive, while Costco and Target reported declines.
Department store names disclosed yet another month of steep y/y monthly sales
declines, with high-end names Saks and Nordstrom falling 15% and 26%,
respectively. Apparel sales were dismal as well, although youth-oriented names
Aeropostale and Hot Topic showed even bigger y/y sales increases than in
January. By far the biggest same-store sales decline (-30%), was at
Abercrombie; shares of ANF are down more than 12%.
- In currencies, three events are driving the price action in the European and US
sessions, including China
and the two European rate decisions. The greenback was initially bid up
following Chinese Premier Wen's opening address to a nine-day legislative
conference. Wen failed to disclose any additional stimulus spending, although
he reaffirmed that China
can hit its ambitious 2009 GDP target at 8%. Across the pond, the Bank of
England continued its easing cycle, cutting its key rate to its lowest level
ever at 0.50%. The BoE also took the unprecedented step of printing money to
purchase Â£75B in assets, Including Gilts. European fixed-income futures surged
on the news, led by June Gilts, probing the 123 handle after opening around
118.85. The UK
yield curve flattened significantly in the aftermath of the quantitative easing
- The ECB cut rates by 50bps to 1.50% as expected but Trichet noted that the
decision was reached by consensus and not unanimous. Currency dealers noted
that perhaps there was dissent on both sides of the 50bps move. The ECB hinted
it still has to room lower its key interest rates, depending on future ECB staff
projections lowering GDP and inflation projections for 2009 and 2010. The ECB staff
now forecasts 2009 GDP growth in a range of -3.2% to -2.2%, compared to their
prior view of -1.0% to 0.0%, with 2010 revised to -0.7% to +0.7% from a 0.5% to
1.5% prior. Staff revised 2009 inflation lower by a full percentage point, to
0.1 to 0.7% and 2010 inflation to a range of +0.6% to +1.4%. These inflation
expectations are well below the 2.0% mandated ceiling for the ECB.
- The USD came off its best level during the mid-NY morning after US Q4
delinquencies surged to its highest level on record to 7.88% from 6.99% prior.
EUR/USD failed to take out the low made earlier this week. Interbank FX
liquidity was impaired due to some issues with its electronic pricing
mechanism. USD/JPY encountered some turbulence with spreads between banks
widening to over 30 pips from its customary 1 to 2 pips as a result of the
technical issue and saw USD/JPY pair slip to 98.25 from 99.20 as a result. The
Japanese exporters continue to offer USD on approach of the 100 level during
the European morning.
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Mon 19 Feb 2018
00:00 CN, US- Holiday Tue 20 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday A 10:00 US- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday A All Day flash PMIs A 15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 15:30 US- EIA Crude AA 19:00 US- Fed Meeting Minutes Thu 22 Feb 2018 A 09:00 DE- IFO Survey A 09:30 GB- GDP AA 13:30 CA- Retail Sales A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Feb 2018 A 10:00 EZ- Final HICP AA 13:30 CA- CPI
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
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