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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Market braces for possible worst US payroll report since 1949

Today 06:04am EST/11:04am GMT

European Market Update: Market braces for possible worst US payroll report since 1949

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (SA) South Africa Feb Gross reserves: $33.8 v $33.9Be; Net Reserves: $33.1 v $33.1B prior

- (HU) Hungarian Jan Preliminary Industrial Output M/M: 2.5% v -15.1% prior; Y/Y: -21.0% v -27.5%e

- (SZ) Swiss Feb CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.0%e

- (SW) Swedish Feb Budget Balance: SEK74.3B v -SEK6.1B prior

- (DE) Danish Jan Industrial Production Ex ships M/M: -1.8% v -0.1% prior; Industrial Orders Ex Ships: 2.8% v -1.1% prior

- (NO) Norwegian Jan Industrial Production M/M: -1.4% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: -0.6% v 3.7% prior

- (NO) Norwegian Jan Industrial Production Manufacturing M/M: -1.3% v -1.7%e; Y/Y: -4.0% v -4.2%e

- (CZ) Czech Feb international Reserves: $35.5B v $34.9B prior

- (UK) Feb PPI Input M/M: 0.6% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 1.1%e

- (UK) Feb PPI Output M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.1%e

- (UK) Feb PPI Output Core M/M:0.0 % v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.7% v 3.7%e


*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- Equities: plumbing supplier Wolseley [WOS.UK] Reports H1 Adj Pretax £97M above forecasts of £66.0M. Revenues were £8.28B slightly below the consensus estimates of £8.32B. It formally announced terms of £1B rights offering and stated it would not pay final dividend. The £1B rights issue comprised of a £270M firm placing at 120P per share and an 11 for 5 rights issue to raise £781M. the firm seen placing of 225M new shares of 25P nominal value with institutional investors. The company's strategic focus would be on its chosen core businesses of North America plumbing and heating, UK and Ireland, Nordic region and France. The downturn in the UK, Irish and Nordic economies were likely to be more severe than in the remainder of continental Europe. The CEO commented that they were in due diligence phase on US unit stock and hoped to reach deal by April> he also expected to be profitable in current financial year || Belgacom [BELG.BE] Reported FY08 Net profit of €800M slightly below the expectations of €822.8M. Revenues were ahead at €5.98B versus the €5.93B consensus. The firm guided FY09 EBITDA margin in a range of 32-33%, and revenue down 1% y/y (implying €5.87Be v €5.92Be). It was expecting a challenging 2009, but did not see a significant impact from slowing economy || Galapagos [GLPG.BE] Reported FY08 Net loss of €14.6M better than the expected loss of €23.2M. Revenues were €77M below expectations of €89M. It maintained its FY09 revenue outlook of €100M copared to forecasts of €89M. its cash position was €27.3M at year-end || Veolia [VIE.FR] Reported FY08 Net of €405M below estimates of €689, but included a €430M write down on its German waste management unit Sulo. Revenues were roughly in line with estimates with €36.21B versus €36.3B expected. It aimed to have positive cash flow post div in 2009 || WPP [WPP.UK: Reported FY08 Adj Pretax £968M better than the £914.7M estimates. Revenues came in at £7.48B above forecasts of £7.27B. , SSS sales were up 2.7% y/y, final dividend 15.47p/shr, which was up 15% y/y. the 2009 Outlook was budgeted to be weaker than the annual average and company believed there would be a recovery of sorts in 2010 || Endesa [ELE.SP] the CEO of that company Miranda stated that the firm is undergoing a business review in light of current macro situation to the Chilian paper-La Segunda. In yesterdays session, Enel stated that Endesa is selling some assets in Spain and Portugal for approx €2.9B. || Fugro [FUR.NV] reported its FY08 Net at €283.4M ahead of expectations of €278.9M, and revenues at €2.15B, in line with expectations of €2.16Be. Fugro put its final, FY08 dividend at €1.50/share. The firm noted that it could not provide outlook for 2009 due to market conditions, but expects slight growth in H1 of 2009 and that acquisitions remain part of growth strategy. || Air France KLM [AF.FR] reported its Feb load factor at 74.3% v 75.5% y/y with Feb passenger volume at 4.8M. || Lloyds [LLOY.UK] conversations with the British government over the bank's participation in the APS are still ongoing, a spokesperson for the bank stated on Thursday evening. || X 5 Retail [FIVE.UK] Reaffirmed FY09 Gross Margin 25.5-25.9% and ETIBDA of 9% versus 8.4-8.6% prior guidance. It saw a Q4 impairement charge in the range of $2-2.5B || Fortis [FORB.BE] Reportedly Belgian gov't to take up to 30% of bank, will make further guarantees against further losses


- Speakers: ECB's Bini Smaghi commented on interests. Overall, he stated that interests rate should be cut at a pace that supports price stability and that the easing cycle should end when upward pressures on inflation become dominate. Interest rates lowered to zero, or below would lead to substantial problems, but might be justified if deflation set in. Thus not always best course to error on the side of excessive easing. || ECB's Nowotny commented that the global economic crisis has spread from financial markets to real economies very fast. Additional fiscal policy coordination would make sense

|| India Central Bank Dep Governor commented that there were no signs of a financial crisis in India. He added that they would seek to bring down levels of leveraging in Indian economy || India Gov't Advisor Virmani commented that inflation could fall below 3% level in March but did not expect deflation to occur . The Rupee currency decline was in line with USD's gains || Italian Government formally approved €17.8B in infrastructure projects || OECD: Jan Leading Indicator Fell To 92.3 v 93.3 m/m. Outlook worsened in Brazil and country joins China, Russia, and India in 'strong slowdown' group


- In Currencies: The USD was broadly softer ahead of the European morning. Negative USD bias into economic data. Dealers are pondering if the release would prompt a “Sell the rumor buy the fact” as a weak US payroll has global implications. Several analyst notes commenting about a potential USD reversal. Analysts at BNP stated that USD under pressure as bond yields fall, may see correction to 95.90/level against the USD/JPY pair. GBP/USD could rise to $1.437 before moving higher towards $1.4600 area. Barclays commented that a USD reckoning was possible on sentiment shift and such a reversal could occur quickly. Barclays commented that a global USD crunch was hard to believe and that the EUR/USD range of 1.25 to 1.30 was unlikely to persist || Former PBoC member Wu Xiaoling uttered that China's currency diversification was 'appropriate' but did not see need for sharp adjustment in FX holdings


- Fixed income: In a extension of yesterdays theme Government Bonds remain well bid this morning with Gilts outperforming Bunds and UST's, and with better buying of longer dates issues Bull flattening is the dominant curve play. The Yield on the 10y Gilt is around 25bps lower at 3.10%; the Bund is 8 bps lower at 2.93% and the 10y Note has fallen by 4bps to 2.77%. EuroZone Peripheral yield spreads have widened, more a reflection strength in core markets than any developments in the Mediterranean or Eastern Europe. In corporates, the BoE announced it had bought £164B in commercial paper last week, brining the cumulative total in its APF operation to just under £1B.


- In Energy: Libya Oil Min noted that OPEC should 'stress' the need for additional compliance at its upcoming March 15 summit || Petro China [PTR] Press speculation CNPC is in talks to acquire an oil asset in Kazakhstan


*** NOTES ***

- It all about the US non-farm payrolls and damage control. Market is preparing for perhaps that largest monthly decline since of 834K was lot back in October 1949. For the third month there is whisper of a 1M possible loss in NFP.

- Far East press speculation that China's Feb exports may have declined by 20%, which would be worse than the decline of 17.5% in Jan. the Trade surplus might be about $7B below the $28.5B expected out next week

- Sen Majority Leader Reid (D) commented that the would not vote on the $410B budget bill at this time as Democrats would come up short on votes at this time.

- Looking Ahead: Note: Clocks “spring forward” one hour in North America this weekend

- 7:00 (US) Brazil Industrial Production M/M: 8.5% expected v -12.4% prior; Y/Y: -11.2% expected v -14.5% prior

- 8:30 (US) Change in Non Farm Payrolls: -650k expected v -598k prior

- 8:30 (US) Unemployment Rate: 7.9% expected v 7.6% prior

- 8:30 (US) Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: -200k expected v -207k prior

- 8:30 (US) Average hourly Earnings M/M: 0.2% expected v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 3.8% expected v 3.9% prior

- 8:30 (US) Feb Average Weekly Hours: 33.3 expected v 33.3 prior

- 10:00 (US) Fed's Plosser to speak in New York

- 11:15 (US) Fed's Dudley

- 1:00pm (US) Fed's Hoenig

- 3:00pm (US) Consumer Credit Jan

 

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