- Equities: plumbing supplier Wolseley [WOS.UK] Reports H1 Adj Pretax ┬ú97M
above forecasts of ┬ú66.0M. Revenues were ┬ú8.28B slightly below the consensus
estimates of ┬ú8.32B. It formally announced terms of ┬ú1B rights offering and
stated it would not pay final dividend. The ┬ú1B rights issue comprised of a
┬ú270M firm placing at 120P per share and an 11 for 5 rights issue to raise
┬ú781M. the firm seen placing of 225M new shares of 25P nominal value with
institutional investors. The company's strategic focus would be on its chosen
core businesses of North America plumbing and heating, UK
Nordic region and France.
The downturn in the UK,
Irish and Nordic economies were likely to be more severe than in the remainder
of continental Europe. The CEO commented that they were
in due diligence phase on US unit stock and hoped to reach deal by April> he
also expected to be profitable in current financial year || Belgacom [BELG.BE]
Reported FY08 Net profit of ÔéČ800M slightly below the expectations of ÔéČ822.8M.
Revenues were ahead at ÔéČ5.98B versus the ÔéČ5.93B consensus. The firm guided FY09
EBITDA margin in a range of 32-33%, and revenue down 1% y/y (implying ÔéČ5.87Be v
ÔéČ5.92Be). It was expecting a challenging 2009, but did not see a significant
impact from slowing economy || Galapagos [GLPG.BE] Reported FY08 Net loss of
ÔéČ14.6M better than the expected loss of ÔéČ23.2M. Revenues were ÔéČ77M below
expectations of ÔéČ89M. It maintained its FY09 revenue outlook of ÔéČ100M copared
to forecasts of ÔéČ89M. its cash position was ÔéČ27.3M at year-end || Veolia
[VIE.FR] Reported FY08 Net of ÔéČ405M below estimates of ÔéČ689, but included a
ÔéČ430M write down on its German waste management unit Sulo. Revenues were
roughly in line with estimates with ÔéČ36.21B versus ÔéČ36.3B expected. It aimed to
have positive cash flow post div in 2009 || WPP [WPP.UK: Reported FY08 Adj
Pretax ┬ú968M better than the ┬ú914.7M estimates. Revenues came in at ┬ú7.48B
above forecasts of ┬ú7.27B. , SSS sales were up 2.7% y/y, final dividend
15.47p/shr, which was up 15% y/y. the 2009 Outlook was budgeted to be weaker
than the annual average and company believed there would be a recovery of sorts
in 2010 || Endesa [ELE.SP] the CEO of that company Miranda stated that the firm
is undergoing a business review in light of current macro situation to the
Chilian paper-La Segunda. In yesterdays session, Enel stated that Endesa is
selling some assets in Spain
for approx ÔéČ2.9B. || Fugro [FUR.NV] reported its FY08 Net at ÔéČ283.4M ahead of
expectations of ÔéČ278.9M, and revenues at ÔéČ2.15B, in line with expectations of
ÔéČ2.16Be. Fugro put its final, FY08 dividend at ÔéČ1.50/share. The firm noted that
it could not provide outlook for 2009 due to market conditions, but expects
slight growth in H1 of 2009 and that acquisitions remain part of growth
strategy. || Air France KLM [AF.FR] reported its Feb load factor at 74.3% v
75.5% y/y with Feb passenger volume at 4.8M. || Lloyds [LLOY.UK] conversations
with the British government over the bank's participation in the APS are still
ongoing, a spokesperson for the bank stated on Thursday evening. || X 5 Retail
[FIVE.UK] Reaffirmed FY09 Gross Margin 25.5-25.9% and ETIBDA of 9% versus
8.4-8.6% prior guidance. It saw a Q4 impairement charge in the range of $2-2.5B
|| Fortis [FORB.BE] Reportedly Belgian gov't to take up to 30% of bank, will
make further guarantees against further losses
- Speakers: ECB's Bini Smaghi commented on interests. Overall, he stated that
interests rate should be cut at a pace that supports price stability and that
the easing cycle should end when upward pressures on inflation become dominate.
Interest rates lowered to zero, or below would lead to substantial problems,
but might be justified if deflation set in. Thus not always best course to
error on the side of excessive easing. || ECB's Nowotny commented that the
global economic crisis has spread from financial markets to real economies very
fast. Additional fiscal policy coordination would make sense
Central Bank Dep Governor commented that there were no signs of a financial
crisis in India.
He added that they would seek to bring down levels of leveraging in Indian
economy || India Gov't Advisor Virmani commented that inflation could fall
below 3% level in March but did not expect deflation to occur . The Rupee
currency decline was in line with USD's gains || Italian Government formally
approved ÔéČ17.8B in infrastructure projects || OECD: Jan Leading Indicator Fell
To 92.3 v 93.3 m/m. Outlook worsened in Brazil and country joins China, Russia,
and India in 'strong slowdown' group
- In Currencies: The USD was broadly softer ahead of the European morning.
Negative USD bias into economic data. Dealers are pondering if the release
would prompt a ÔÇťSell the rumor buy the factÔÇŁ as a weak US
payroll has global implications. Several analyst notes commenting about a
potential USD reversal. Analysts at BNP stated that USD under pressure as bond
yields fall, may see correction to 95.90/level against the USD/JPY pair.
GBP/USD could rise to $1.437 before moving higher towards $1.4600 area.
Barclays commented that a USD reckoning was possible on sentiment shift and
such a reversal could occur quickly. Barclays commented that a global USD
crunch was hard to believe and that the EUR/USD range of 1.25 to 1.30 was
unlikely to persist || Former PBoC member Wu Xiaoling uttered that China's
currency diversification was 'appropriate' but did not see need for sharp
adjustment in FX holdings
- Fixed income: In a extension of yesterdays theme Government Bonds remain well
bid this morning with Gilts outperforming Bunds and UST's, and with better
buying of longer dates issues Bull flattening is the dominant curve play. The
Yield on the 10y Gilt is around 25bps lower at 3.10%; the Bund is 8 bps lower
at 2.93% and the 10y Note has fallen by 4bps to 2.77%. EuroZone Peripheral
yield spreads have widened, more a reflection strength in core markets than any
developments in the Mediterranean or Eastern
Europe. In corporates, the BoE announced it had bought ┬ú164B in
commercial paper last week, brining the cumulative total in its APF operation
to just under ┬ú1B.
- In Energy: Libya Oil Min noted that OPEC should 'stress' the need for
additional compliance at its upcoming March 15 summit || Petro China [PTR]
Press speculation CNPC is in talks to acquire an oil asset in Kazakhstan
*** NOTES ***
- It all about the US non-farm payrolls and damage control. Market is preparing
for perhaps that largest monthly decline since of 834K was lot back in October
1949. For the third month there is whisper of a 1M possible loss in NFP.
- Far East press speculation that China's Feb exports may have declined by 20%,
which would be worse than the decline of 17.5% in Jan. the Trade surplus might
be about $7B below the $28.5B expected out next week
- Sen Majority Leader Reid (D) commented that the would not vote on the $410B
budget bill at this time as Democrats would come up short on votes at this
- Looking Ahead: Note: Clocks ÔÇťspring forwardÔÇŁ one hour in North America this
- 7:00 (US) Brazil Industrial Production M/M: 8.5% expected v -12.4% prior;
Y/Y: -11.2% expected v -14.5% prior
- 8:30 (US) Change in Non Farm Payrolls: -650k expected v -598k prior
- 8:30 (US) Unemployment Rate: 7.9% expected v 7.6% prior
- 8:30 (US) Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: -200k expected v -207k prior
- 8:30 (US) Average hourly Earnings M/M: 0.2% expected v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 3.8%
expected v 3.9% prior
- 8:30 (US) Feb Average Weekly Hours: 33.3 expected v 33.3 prior
- 10:00 (US) Fed's Plosser to speak in New York
- 11:15 (US) Fed's Dudley
- 1:00pm (US) Fed's Hoenig
- 3:00pm (US) Consumer Credit Jan
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
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