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Thursday January 6, 2005 - 12:48:03 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

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FX Thoughts Evening - 06/01/05.............1240GMT

Euro @ 1.3186/9....Support at 1.3159 just now
R: 1.3244-64 / 1.3288 / 1.3312-24
S: 1.3170-59 / 1.3140 / 1.3110-1.3100
Crucial Support at 1.3170-59. If these break, there may be hell to pay and a further fall towards 1.31000 and maybe even 1.3050 may be just a hop, skip and jump away. But whether such a break will happen tonight or not is not known. Perhaps a small rally towards 1.3225 may be seen in the next 6-10 hours before the Euro is sold off again, possibly before the US Payrolls data tomorrow.

If the Euro falls towards 1.3050 before tomorrow's data, it might be bought back upon the data release. BUT, if it is not sold down over the rest of today and in the European hours tomorrow, it may (possibly) be sold after the data. So watch what it does tonight, for an idea as to how to handle the Payrolls tomorrow.

Sell EUR 20K at 1.3229, SL 1.3270, TP open

$-Yen @ 104.84/89....Resistance at 105.10-16
R: 105.10 / 105.48
S: 104.73-62 / 104.39-26 / 104.10-05
We see some Trend Resistance at 105.00 and our statistically projected high for the day is 105.10. As such, we would like to respect the 105.00-10 Resistance. There's been a spike above 105.00 but the market has dipped thereafter. At the same time, we do not envisage a fall below 103.90. All in all, Dollar-Yen may trade between 105.16 and 104.30 for the next few hours.

On a longer term, it may take at least a few days for the Dollar to break through the 105.16 Resistance, whereupon it could rise towards 106+. Otherwise it might drop towards 103.80-65 as well.

Our overnight Long at 104.08 saw profit at 104.60 and we are satisfied.

Euro-Yen @ 134.26/31....Ranged for now
R: 138.46 / 138.82-139.05 / 139.33-55
S: 137.89-75 / 137.50-27 / 137.0
Our Short at 138.30 was stopped out at 138.56 while the high was 138.61. This is called getting Jubbed out. Anyway, the overall 138-139 range continues to hold for now, with a bit of pressure on the downside. The big Supports on the downside are at 137.78 and 137.55. Immediate range could be 138.80 to 137.80

Swiss @ 1.1754/9...Watch 1.1800-50 tonight
R: 1.1780-1.1800 / 1.1847
S: 1.1740 / 1.1709-1.1688 / 1.1663-45
There has been a decent move upwards to 1.1760, but the pair seems to have halted here for the moment. The immediate resistance at 1.1800 could be crucial for today. Should it hold strong there may be a dip to 1.1664 due to profit taking. On the other hand should it break today itself, then this leaves scope for a rise further to 1.1850 and may be 1.19 tomorrow. The pair has witnessed a double bottom formation with the neckline at 1.1600. In any case the pair may stay above 1.1600 today and tomorrow and start rising to 1.19 in the fullness of time.

Long 25K at 1.1745 , SL 1.1690, TP 1.1790
Long 25K at 1.1729 , SL 1.1690, TP 1.1823
Long 25K at 1.1706 , SL 1.1690, TP open

As soon as the market trades 1.1790 bring SL up to 1.1730 on the remaining long positions

Cable @ 1.8728/33....Testing supports at 1.8695
R: 1.8753 / 1.8800-22 / 1.8869
S: 1.8695 / 1.8646 / 1.8614
The pair saw two-way movement yesterday and is looking bearish today. Immediate supports at 1.8695. If there is a bounce back to 1.8800 from here, we may expect a further bounce to 1.8870 and above tomorrow. But if the pair closes below 1.8695, there are chances of further bearishness to 1.8610 and below tomorrow.

Sell GBP 15K at 1.8775, SL 1.8830, TP 1.8624
Sell GBP 15K at 1.8687, SL 1.8745, TP 1.8624

Happy Trading!


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