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Sunday March 8, 2009 - 18:18:57 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Month Ahead Interest Rate Outlook for March 8, 2009

Central Bank Policy Outlook -- Key Interest Rates


Global Interest Rates


The Global-View.com Monetary Policy Outlook is prepared weekly by the trading professionals at GVI Forex. For information on the GVI Forex Service Click Here

8 March 2009

Central banks have or about to embark on a policy of quantitative ease (QE). QE means that instead of targeting an interest or inflation rate that the bank force-feeds reserves into the banking system. The goal of QE is to inject reserves in the system sufficient to make credit available to all potential borrowers.

Upcoming Decisions
Swiss National Bank- Thursday March 12, 2009
  • Market expects a -50bp cut in the 0.50% target for three month CHF LIBOR.
  • Swiss National Bank headed for an effective zero interest rate policy (ZIRP).
  • SNB would like to weaken the CHF vs. the EUR.
  • Inflation not issue; economy slow.

    Bank of Japan- Wednesday March 18, 2009

  • BOJ target rate (0.10%) already virtually at zero. No rate cut is possible.
  • Japan invented Quantitative Easing.

    U.S. Federal Reserve- Wednesday March 18, 2009

  • Market expects no further cuts in the 0 to 0.25% target range for the Fed funds rate.
  • The Federal Reserve effectively has embarked on a quantitative easing policy.
  • Inflation not an issue; economy slow.

    Monetary Profiles




    SWITZERLAND

    GVI Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting Preview

    • Decision: March 12, 2009 at 08:30 GMT.
    • SNB 3mo Swiss libor target: 0.50%
    • Expected Decision: -25bps
    • The SNB cut rates by another -50bps in December. A move something like a ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) is probable.

      SWISS NATIONAL BANK Policy Objective: The National Bank equates price stability with a rise in the national consumer price index (CPI) of less than 2% per annum. In so doing, it takes account of the fact that not every price movement is necessarily inflationary. Furthermore, it believes that inflation cannot be measured accurately. Measurement problems arise, for example, when the quality of goods and services improves. Such changes are not properly accounted for in the CPI; as a result, inflation, as measured by the CPI, will be slightly overstated.

      chcpi

      The chart above shows year/year CPI and the Swiss goal of less than 2% for this price index. 

      chpmi




    s-t rates

    The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current three-month Euro-Swiss target  and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago.  The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Swiss interest rates are headed.


    interest rates

    The chart above shows the Swiss three-month Euro-swiss rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.





    JAPAN

    GVI BOJ Policy Meeting Preview

    • Decision: March 19, 2009
    • Current Overnight Target Rate: 0.10%
    • Expected decision: unch
    • Japanese interest rates virtually hit their theoretical 0% floor (0.10%). The central bank surprised many on December 22 by taking a page from the Fed's playbook and throwing everything but the kitchen sink at its weakening economy and an overvalued currency.

    BANK OF JAPAN Policy Objective: The Bank of Japan Law states that the Bank's monetary policy should be "aimed at, through the pursuit of price stability, contributing to the sound development of the national economy."

    Nationwide CPI

    The chart above shows year/year core nationwide CPI and the reported BOJ goal of between 0% and 2% for this price index. 

    Manufacturing PMI



    CHART: BOJ Quarterly Tankan Survey




    s-t rates

    The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current BOJ overnight rate target  and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago.  The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Japanese interest rates are headed.


    interest rates

    The chart above shows the Japanese overnight rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.




    UNITED STATES

    GVI U.S. Feberal Reserve Bank Policy Meeting Preview

    • Decision: March 17 at 19:15 GMT.
    • Fed Funds rate: 0 to 25%
    • Expected Decision: no change
    • The Fed cut rates virtually to zero on December 16. It also threw in the kitchen sink with easing measures. A ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) and quantitative ease (QE) has arrived.

    FEDERAL RESERVE Policy Objective: The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Federal Open Market Committee shall maintain long run growth of the monetary and credit aggregates commensurate with the economy's long run potential to increase production, so as to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.

    uscpi

    The chart above shows year/year core PCE for the U.S. relative to its its reported "comfort zone for this key price index. Headline and Core CPI figures are also shown.

    ezcpi

    ezcpi




    s-t rates

    The above monthly U.S. employment chart is included because its the most closely followed data release each month, and because one of the objectives of the Fed is to maximize employment.

    s-t rates


    s-t rates

    The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current Fed funds target  and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago.  The chart provides a view on where the markets feel U.S. interest rates are headed.




    interest rates

    The chart above shows the U.S. Fed Funds rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.



    John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in a forex inter-bank and futures trading arm of a subsidiary (ContiCurrency) of the Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was one of the early members of the Chemical Bank corporate advisory service in NYC, and also worked in international liability management for that bank. John holds an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelors degree in International Economics from Berkeley.



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