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Thursday January 6, 2005 - 14:20:52 GMT

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FX Daily Technical Strategy

EUR/USD: A period of consolidation has dominated the past 24-hours of USD trading and EUR was no exception.  A solid barrier at the 3250/60 level is apparent in price and coincides the period of support following the fall from grace earlier in the session.  This barrier, combined with the brief foray below has drafted an inverted H&S on the intra-session charts. Daily oscillators have just now begun to inch into ďoversoldĒ as the intra-session (240-minute) studies of the same type are making strides to move out of oversold to neutral. We feel the stalemate is likely to persist going into the session close, with the resistance perhaps becoming stretched a little bit higher as supposed by the intrasession price pattern (H&S).  We see fairly hefty resistance overhead at the 61.8% of Decemberís range coupled with a trendline connecting Decemberís previous highs 1.3345/65.  
Key levels: On the resistance side of things, we have laid out fib retracements using the session high and low.  These levels combined with the larger scale fibs peg key resistance that may serve as a tipping point for those anticipating a larger retracement (1.3350/60). Subsequent to that, more levels of resistance come in near the 20-day EMA (1.3425/35). Naturally, session highs will be the most considerable on move beyond that.  On the support side of the picture, projections and historical levels are indicative of 1.3100 and 1.3195 as probable regions of support. However, daily oscillators imply a base may have already been found at present pricing. Thus, session spike lows (1.3215/20) should be considered the most considerable support.

USD/JPY: The pair has been singled out as having the most considerable price action following the recent relief rally in the benchmark to Jan highs of 105.00.  This anomaly suggests the former intermediate trend of later December still weighs on the pair.  Key resistance comes in at a major fib just over head (104.30) and we feel if the level breaks recent highs (105.00) should stymie the offer into the weekly close.  Also contributing to the probability of a tight symmetrical range into the close, the 10 and 20-say EMA converging below, should further crowd the price. However the nature of the formation suggests a large correction may take place near the apex.

Key levels: The confluence of the 61.8% of Decemberís range and 10/20-day EMA should prop thing on a move lower with the descending trendline connecting Decemberís spike highs shortly thereafter.  Naturally the first level of resistance comes in close overhead at the session high (105.00) with key fib resistance just above the 105


GBP/USD: The pair in many ways is trading nearly identical to that of the EUR and the inverse to the CHF. The indication tells us that USD is the marketís primary concern at this moment in time. However, the daily studies do contrast somewhat to that of the EUR in the oscillators have moved squarely into oversold while the EUR have just inched in if at all. The indication is accompanied by a waning ADX and doji candle (GMT) while the pair hovers at key support just above the 100-day SMA and monthly pivot S2.
Key levels: On the resistance side, the former support, now resistance comes in near the range highs of 8900 and the 1.9000 figure thereafter. A break opening up the door to the diverging 10 and 20-day SMA (1.9175/1.9234) subsequent to that. On the support side, similarly to the EUR, session lows are the most formidable for the offer with a break opening up the doors to 1.8630 fib projection.

USD/CHF:The synthetic has rocketed of the DB formation at the key support level we were pinning about for over 2 weekly sessions at 1.1300. The move stalled just above Dec highs and the 23.6% of 1.1680-1.1300 near the 4 year old regression trend upper band (1.1700). Not unlike the diametric indication seen in EUR, daily oscillators have slammed through neutral territory from a diverging oversold level (while price moved to the same level) to overbought on the run, leaving us a little weary of the staying power behind this rally. Nevertheless, the 10 and 20-day EMA (1.1500) have accelerated rather ominously given the somewhat sideways trading of the last 24-hours, inspiring a cross near the roll-over.
Key levels: Going forward, we have key support coming into play at the confluence of the 38.2% of the rally and 10/20-day EMA crossover (1.1500). Prior to that level however, we have a barrier at 1.1605/15 and the previous session spike high of 1.1555/60. Resistance lies at the session high and 1.1640. scattered down to the 1600 figure.


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