- Equities: Swiss Re [RUKN.SZ: Chairman of the Board Peter Forstmoser to
resign, effective May 1, 2009 || Credit Suisse [CSGN.SZ] Appointed Hans-Ulrich
Doerig as new Chairman, President; effective April 24th || Rio Tinto [RIO.UK]
Arch Coal announced it would purchase the company's Jacobs Ranch unit in
Wyoming for $761M . the deal included 381M tons of coal reserves || Lloyds
[LLOY.UK] has confirmed participating in UK asset protection program; to put
about ┬ú260B of assets into UK protection program (APS). States that 83% of
assets come from HBOS legacy book, the rest from Lloyds TSB book. To replace
┬ú4B of government preference shares with new ordinary shares to be offered to
existing shareholders; if shareholders do not take up offer of shares, UK
government will own about 65% of bank; in the event of full conversion of
"B" shares government would own up to 77% of bank. Lloyds tol take a
first loss of up to ┬ú25B on assets. Will pay a ┬ú15.6B fee to the Treasury for
asset plan. Asset protection scheme will boost core tier 1 ratio fo 14.6% from
6.4%; will reduce risk weighted assets by ┬ú194B, or about 39%. Bank has
promised to increase lending by ┬ú14B in next 12 months. ||Barclays[ BARC.UK]
has opened talks with the UK Treasury about its possible participation in the
asset-protection plan - Sunday Times. The talks are expected to begin this week
in a more formal setting. A related report in the Sunday Express said that
Barclays is initially looking to place assets worth up to ┬ú60B into the
asset-protection plan. The Telegraph added that Barclays was expected to hold
talks with the FSA over the stress-testing of a number of loan portfolios to
determine if the bank will participate in the asset protection plan. || Cookson
Group [CKSN.UK] reported its FY08 Pretax at ┬ú176.2M v ┬ú164.3M expected.
Revenues cam in at ┬ú2.2B, in line with expectations of ┬ú2.19B. Stated that FY08
trading profit were ┬ú216.3M +11% y/y. Additionally Cookson announced that it
would be suspending 'top-ups' in the expansion of its CAPEX and dividend plans
(seeking to save ┬ú40M). ||Petrofac [PFC.UK] reported its FY08 Net $265M v $260M
expected, EBITDA at $419.0M, ahead of the expected $381.7M and revenues of
$3.3B, in line with expectations of $3.25B. Petrofac noted that it is
well-positioned to deliver further strong growth in 2009 and beyond. Firm put
its full year div at 16.66p/shr, up 55% y/y. || EAD's [EAD.FR], it was reported
in the FT that that the firm may report its FY08 revenues of ÔéČ43B, ahead of
expectations of ÔéČ41.37B. ||Fortis [FORB.BE] -BNP confirmed the revised
agreement to buy Fortis from the Belgian government, confirmed new terms for
agreement. According to BNP, the deal will be accretive by as early as 2010 and
that a s segregation of riskiest structured loan assets will take place. BNP
stated that its Tier 1 rato will remain stable after the transaction. Following
the deal, the merged group will have a deposit base of more than ÔéČ540B. The
merged entity will have a loan to deposit ratio of 120%, AUM of more than
ÔéČ660B. The Belgian government confirmed that it would sell Fortis to BNP and
under the terms of the agreement, BNP will take a 75% stake in Fortis Bank and
a 25% stake in Fortis' insurance unit in Belgium.
The government will retain a 25% stake in Fortis Bank and Fortis Holding will
maintain 75% of the insurance unit. BNP will pay ÔéČ2.88B in stock for Fortis
bank and an additional ÔéČ1.38B of the insurance unit share. Also under the new
agreement, the Belgian government will provide ÔéČ740M of equity funding to a
company created to split off ÔéČ11.4B of risk assets into a separate entity, BNP
will contribute ÔéČ200M to the entity and Fortis will provide ÔéČ760M and ÔéČ9.7B in
debt funding. Also as part of the agreement to split off Fortis' risky assets, Belgium
will provide a ÔéČ4.4B guarantee and BNP obtained a ÔéČ1.5B state guarantee on
losses exceeding ÔéČ3.5B on the structured credit holdings. According to the
Belgian Central Bank the structured credit investments that will be held in the
separate entity have been marked down to about 58% of par value. || Swedbank
[SWEDA.SW], the bank cut is dividend to zero from a previous dividend proposal
of SEK4.50/shr, will not pay FY08 dividend. Bank will not pay dividend on
ordinary or preference shares. Sees decision adding 0.4% to its capital ratio
(15.2% from 14.8%), will save SEK2.9B. Announced that Folsam to take 90M share
stake in firm (14.6%) and that AB Svensk to take 25.2M share stake in frim
- Speakers: ECB's Stark stated that it was unable to predict end of global
economic crisis and commented that it was likely to experience negative growth
during all quarters of 2009 in what amounts to be the deepest downturn since
the end of WW2. Unemployment might rise further in Europe.
Stark noted that the size and pace of interest rate cuts enacted since October
has been unprecedented. However, the global crisis cannot be resolved by
Central Banks alone. ||ECB's Nowotny: stated that the ECB was discussing
non-standard measures but no conclusion made at this time; ECB will act
appropriately and too soon to predict potential action at its April policy
meeting. He commented that there was no need for extra Eastern European
liquidity measures nor discuss accepting collateral in Eastern European
currency markets. No need to speed up ERM II entry regulations and observed
that many Eastern European countries GDP rate exceeded Euro-zone ||China's PBoC
Vice Chairman Yi commented that its foreign reserve policy remained unchanged
and would focused on safety and liquidity. He reiterated the view that the
current fiscal stimulus package a sufficient, sound and effective. The February
loan growth iin Chia was still strong but noting the country's exports were
slowing and hoped exports stabilize. He noted that it must focus on domestic
demand development || Argentine Central Bank Gov said they were observing
massive capital outflows from emerging markets, including Latin
America. There are big strains on Eastern European banking balance
sheets|| SNB Chief Economist stated that the Swiss economy had deteriorated
dramatically over the last year but there were no evidence of a credit crunch
||Polish Central Bank Gov reiterates his view that the Zloty currency was now
substantially undervalued . The central bank would expand its repo operations
to six months. He still saw positive economic growth taking place in Poland
for 2009 || Japan MoF Sugimoto stated that it woud keep observing stock and FX
markets movements closely. He added that the japanese economy was facing rapid
slowdown. Hoever; Japan
PM Aso commented that it would not 'intervene' in its equities market in
remarks to reporters.
- In Currencies: Risk aversion and safe haven buying sent the USD firmer
against the major pairs in the session. Continued concerns over the global
economic outlook weighed upon equities. World Bank reportedly sees the global
economy and the volume of global trade to contract shrink during 2009 for the
first time since World War II. GBP experienced broad based selling pressure as
its 10-year Gilt fell below the 3.0% level for fresh all-time lows. GBP/USD
tested below 1.40 while EUR/GBP was back above the 0.90handle. EUR/USD was off
a 100 pips from its Tokyo open to
test 1.2600. || Dealers noting of possible 'intervention threat" by
Hungarian Central Bank was very possible. The Hungarian Central Bank stated
over the weekend planned to start converting Euros on open market and added it
was "ready to use all monetary tools"
- Fixed income: Gilts have again outperformed Bunds and UST's, with the June
Contact currently at fresh highs above the 125 handle, and the 10y cash yield
moving below 3.00% for all time lows. June Bunds have also tested new contract
highs at 125.64. Traders are paying attention to narrowing spreads with Bunds
just 6bps cheaper than the 10y Note, and the 10y Gilt just 5bps cheaper than
the Bund, the latter spread at its lowest level since October 2002. In
corporates, GE Capital will reportedly look to price a USD denominated benchmark
offering this week, backed by the US's Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program
- In Energy: OPEC Sec General El Badri: stated that OPEC might need to cut an
additional 800K bpd from it production and noted that such cuts would depend on
compliance rates. He expected to continue to see downward pressure on oil
prices and added that the current price level was not acceptable but is at
least stable || Statoil [STL.NO] Announced oil and gas discovery in North Sea
wildcat well || Chevron [CVX] FT article noted that company would commence a
testing production technique to unlock more Middle East reserves. Article noted
that the technique, designed to produce heavy oil that cannot be extracted
using conventional methods, will be used in the ÔÇťpartitioned neutral zoneÔÇŁ
between Saudi Arabia
*** NOTES ***US clocks moved ahead one hour over the weekend
- World Bank predicts that the global economy to contract for first time since
WW2. Thus risk aversion and safe haven play weighing upon equities. Nikkei 225
Index closes at its lowest level since Q4 1982. Japan
registered its first current account deficit in 13 years,
- The theme of protectionism is gaining ground. The FT reported that Bank of
America is to cancel job offers to foreign graduates of US business schools.
-Senator McCain and Shelby commented that large banks can be allowed to fail.
- - Looking Ahead:
- (BR) Brazil Feb FGV Inflation
IGP-DI: % v 0.09%e
- 8:15 (CA) Feb Canada Housing Starts: K v 145.0Ke
- 11:00 (MX) Feb Mexico Consumer Prices M/M: % v 0.22%e; Y/Y: % v 6.20%e; CPI
Core M/M: % v 0.46%e
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Mon 9 July 2018 AA 12:00 EZ- Draghi EU Parliament Testimony Tue 10 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Ind/Prod Output, Trade AA 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 11 July 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:00 CA- Bank Of Canada Decision A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 12 July 2018 AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 13 July 2018 A 14:00 US- Prelim University of Michigan
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